With Super Texas Tuesday finally almost upon us, it’s time to have a little fun. This is an open predictions thread. I’m going to list some races, you tell me what you think is going to happen. Be as general or specific as you wish, but please keep it civil – I won’t approve direct attacks on candidates. Doesn’t mean you can’t be snarky (heaven forfend!), just don’t be a jerk. I’ll set a good example and go first – note that what I’m giving here is what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to happen. Please don’t equate a prediction for an endorsement.
Assume I’m asking about the Democratic primary unless specified otherwise. Fabulous prizes will be available to those who do the best, as soon as someone provides them to me to provide to you. Otherwise, it’s all for personal glory. Deadline is 7 PM Tuesday. Ready, set…
1. President, both parties My guess: Obama by ten points, McCain with about 60%. Turnout of over 2.5 million on the Dem side, less than 1.5 million on the GOP side.
2. US Senate My guess: Despite some public mutterings about a runoff, I think Rick Noriega ekes out a majority. Gene Kelly ends up in the 20s, with the other two sharing the rest.
3. CD10 My guess: Dan Grant, in a win for endorsements over fundraising.
5. CD22, GOP My guess: Toughest one in the bunch. I think Shelley makes it to the runoff, thus kicking off a wild celebration at Wonkette world headquarters, but who else makes it is a complete tossup. I’m going to go with Pete Olson, and I’ll be completely unsurprised to be wrong.
6. Harris County District Attorney, GOP, and Travis County DA, Dem My guess: For Harris, Siegler and Lykos in the runoff. And that sound you’ll hear afterwards is the membership of the HCCLA gnashing their teeth and rending their garments. For Travis, I’ll be rooting for a Lehmberg-Reed matchup, but I suspect Mindy Montford’s money will get her a spot in the playoffs against one of those two.
7. Harris County Judge, both parties; Sheriff and Tax Assessor, Dems My guess: For the GOP, Charles Bacarisse. I see him as running a more partisan campaign, which strikes me not surprisingly as a better strategy for a primary. And though it won’t matter, whoever designed the font on Ed Emmett’s yard signs should be flogged. On the Dem side, I see David Mincberg winning easily, and I believe both Adrian Garcia and Diane Trautman will prevail as well, Garcia hopefully avoiding a runoff.
8. HDs 130 (GOP), 140 and 146 (Dem) My guess: I think Danno’s boy Alan Fletcher wins in 130, though I’m not confident about it. I think Armando Walle knocks off Kevin Bailey, and I think Borris Miles survives by the skin of his teeth.
9. Supreme Court and Railroad Commissioner My guess: For Surpeme Court, Linda Yanez and Sam Houston. I feel more confident about the latter than the former. For RRC, I think Art Hall and Dale Henry end up in a runoff.
10. Harris County judicials (your choice) My guess: Hell if I know. I see them all as tossups. Whatever the final turnout is on the Dem side, barring something like a 75% dropoff from the Presidential race you’re looking at 100,000 or more voters who weren’t touched by either campaign ultimately picking the nominees. That’s got to be giving a lot of people ulcers.
Extra credit: The races I should have included but didn’t. I mostly went with contests where I thought the likely outcome was not obvious, but that’s my judgment. I also mostly stuck with Harris County, just to keep this at a respectable length. Feel free to tell me which races I’m overlooking, and how you think they’ll wind up.
There you have it. Here’s Greg’s call on some of these races. Have fun, and predict away!