Last month, Rasmussen published a poll showing Bill White trailing Rick Perry by four points. This month, they claim a 13-point advantage for Perry, giving him his highest level of support and White his lowest since they started polling this matchup. As I said last month when Rasmussen showed White closer to Perry, I wouldn’t make too much of this. Some of the crosstabs are a little flaky, and it’s still the case that Rasmussen has a house effect that tends to favor Republicans. There was nothing in the news or the campaigns this past month that would have caused a big move one way or the other. I won’t be surprised if next month Rasmussen has it as a closer race again.
I’ve said before that there’s only so much you can derive from one pollster’s numbers. Turns out there was a non-Rasmussen poll result released late last week, from Paul Maslin, which had Perry up 52-39. That poll was done in early April, however, more than a week before the 48-44 Rasmussen result, and it had nearly twice as many self-reported Republican primary voters in it as Democratic primary voters, so make of that what you will.
Finally, just a reminder that early poll numbers are not destiny. A lot can happen in a few months, and pollsters often don’t have a clear idea of who’s going to vote early on.
White may be listening to the polls. White ads are already popping up on tv. Hopefully the ads won’t burn out voters. And why in Houston? Everyone already knows him here. Hopefully White is doing a tv ad campaign in other areas of the state.
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