Here’s a comparison of where the voters who cast their ballots through the first eight days of early voting came from in 2012 and in 2016:
Dist 12 Day 8 12 Total Day 8% 16 Day 8 % of 2012
======================================================
HD126 24,461 38,858 62.9% 30,042 77.3%
HD127 27,664 46,356 59.7% 37,466 80.8%
HD128 24,540 38,539 63.7% 30,218 78.4%
HD129 24,022 40,173 59.8% 31,459 76.4%
HD130 31,658 50,117 63.2% 40,489 80.8%
HD131 18,050 30,150 59.9% 21,769 72.2%
HD132 19,486 34,015 57.3% 35,551 104.5%
HD133 30,125 49,388 61.0% 36,808 74.5%
HD134 28,780 49,937 57.6% 40,526 81.2%
HD135 21,132 35,525 59.5% 29,417 82.8%
HD137 8,664 15,217 56.9% 11,986 78.8%
HD138 18,082 30,183 59.9% 24,785 82.1%
HD139 20,538 33,573 61.1% 26,085 78.7%
HD140 7,505 12,855 58.4% 10,804 84.0%
HD141 16,920 27,299 62.0% 18,567 68.1%
HD142 18,000 28,988 62.1% 21,619 74.6%
HD143 11,911 19,442 61.3% 15,257 78.5%
HD144 8,349 13,296 62.8% 11,394 85.7%
HD145 9,972 17,047 58.5% 14,805 86.8%
HD146 20,064 33,386 61.0% 23,299 69.8%
HD147 20,363 34,582 58.9% 26,205 77.7%
HD148 12,776 22,402 57.0% 22,267 99.4%
HD149 17,014 28,937 58.8% 20,410 70.5%
HD150 27,602 44,374 62.2% 38,426 86.6%
Note that the numbers represent not where people voted – that is, which early voting location – but where the voters themselves are registered. That data comes from the daily vote rosters, and it was provided to me. “12 Day 8” represents the number of voters from the given State Rep district who had voted by Day 8 of the EV period in 2012, while “16 Day 8” is the same number for this year. “12 Total” is the total number of ballots cast during the entire 2012 early voting period, including both mail ballots and in person ballots. “Day 8%” is the share of all early votes from 2012 that were cast in the first eight days, and “% of 2012” is the share of early votes cast this year to the total number of 2012 early votes. The idea here is to see where the early vote has increased the most, and where it has increased the least.
With me so far? Okay, so the first two districts that leap out at you are HDs 132 and 148. In HD132, which is out around Katy, more people have voted early so far in 2016 than voted early in all of 2012. I’m going to step out on a limb here and predict that the total vote in HD132 is going to wind up being considerably more than it was four years ago. HD148, which covers places like Garden Oaks and part of the Heights, is only a few votes shy of matching its 2012 early vote total. These two districts are the frontrunners in the overall boost to turnout so far.
The next thing to note is that three of the districts in the next tier down, with turnout shares in the 85% range, arethe heavily Latino districts HD 143, 144, and 145. That jibes with the general enthusiasm level being exhibited by Latino voters elsewhere in the country. It’s also an example of the Texas Organizing Project turnout effort.
At the bottom of the scale are two African-American districts, HDs 141 and 146. I don’t know what may be happening in those districts, but one possibility is that this is more about total population than anything else. HD141, in the northeastern part of the county, is an area that has been steadily losing population over the past thirty years. It would not shock me if there are fewer registered voters in HD141 this year than in 2012, despite the overall strong growth in voter registration. I don’t think the same would be true for HD146, but there may be other things going on. In any event, it’s important to remember that we do still have more voting to go.
So that’s where we are with three more days of early voting to go, including the two that are likely to be the heaviest, even given what we’ve seen so far. Day eight was also a good day for the Democrats, who have not had a bad day yet in Harris County. Bear in mind that while Dems piled up a big early voting lead in 2008, Republicans won Election Day and caught up in several races, as Dems had run out of voters. The Rs winning Election Day has to be a distinct possibility this year as well. The Day 9 EV report is here; I did not get to updating the tracker spreadsheet before going to bed. I may have been paying too much attention to the World Series game to have gotten to that. It will be done today, be assured of that.
Thank you for all the hard work. It will be a nail bitter for sure.
One has to assume that GOP voters are voting for the GOP or at least for the top of the ticket. According to one poll in Florida that may not be occurring. The poll found that 28% of GOP voters were voting for Clinton.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/1/1589868/-Hillary-Takes-8-Point-Lead-in-Early-Florida-28-of-Republicans-Crossing-Over-to-Vote-for-Hillary
While not included in your data is that beside Latino turnout, the number of persons who are Muslim is also at an all time high. Many coming out to vote for the first time.
Harris county will elect all Democrats this November, that is my prediction. Since the City is already electing primarily Democrats, I see that many Republicans for convenience will change party, like Rick Perry. Besides the Latino turnout in Latino districts they are also voting in record numbers at other locations. The Latino turnout is effecting the way that polling places as some of the Republicans in charge are telling employees not to help voters if they can’t read any language.
The only nail biter will be seeing city council members voted off the horse shoe in 2019.
Christie, Kubosh and Knox have done absolutely nothing for the last year except twiddle their thumbs.
If you’re too lazy to put together real non-partisan ideas for Houston, don’t waste our time.
The dramatic increase in HD 148 turnout is largely because a better-located site at SPJST Lodge at 1435 Beall St near Timbergrove was opened this year. Prior HD 148 sites were all east of Main Street in lower income neighborhoods, unfamiliar to Heights area voters.
And of course the alcohol sales referendum in the Heights may be bringing in a higher turnout there, too. Almost all of that voting zone is located within HD 148.