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Care to revise and extend your turnout estimate?

Remember when the Harris County Clerk’s office projected eight percent turnout for tomorrow’s election? How optimistic they were.

A turnout of 5 percent to 6 percent is expected for Saturday’s joint election based on the number of people who voted early.

Only about 1.5 percent of registered voters took part in the early voting that ended on Tuesday, said David Beirne, spokesman for the Harris County Clerk’s Office.

“There is nothing on the ballot that is drawing in voters,” Beirne said.

In Houston, a special election is being held to fill the City Council seat vacated by Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. Eleven candidates are running.

Fewer than 13,000 city residents cast ballots during early voting, indicating the council race hasn’t sparked great interest, Beirne said.

Which means that my own projection of five percent turnout was also way too sunny. I’m now putting the over/under line at three percent. That would make this slightly less robust than the 2005 City Council runoff (PDF) between Sue Lovell and Jay Aiyer. It also means that you’ll be voting for the equivalent of at least 30 people, not just 20. Which in turn means it’s time for this again:

Last chance to vote is tomorrow. You don’t even want to think about how low turnout in a runoff would be, so do your best to avoid it and vote for Melissa Noriega. Polls will be open from 7 AM to 7 PM.

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One Comment

  1. Karl-T says:

    Man, what’s up with Harris dude? Back home in Gillespie County, where are are no elections except one school board seat for the smallest jurisdiction in the county that usually has about 100 votes tops) has already cast 1200 early vote ballots out of about 17,000 countywide registered. They will probably hit 15% turnout for a lame ass constitutional amendment. Man, what a bunch of votomatons!