A third PPP Congressional poll in Texas

Here’s a Public Policy Polling Twitter thread of interest. I’ve highlighted the specific relevant tweets.

The generic ballot polling certainly looks great for Democrats, but how is that playing out at the district level? We've polled 36 GOP held Congressional districts since October. Here's what we've found…

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) December 20, 2017

Last year in TX-7 John Culberson won 56-44. He trails a generic Democrat 49-39 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 8-10

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) December 20, 2017

Last year in TX-32 Pete Sessions didn't even have a Democratic opponent. He trails a generic Democrat 48-43 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 8-9

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) December 20, 2017

Last year in TX-31 John Carter won 58-37. He leads Democratic foe MJ Hegar only 46-40 on a poll we did for her campaign November 28-29

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) December 20, 2017

The Culberson and Sessions results we knew about. The CD31 poll between Carter and MJ Hegar is news to me. Let me expand a bit on the numbers from 2016 that PPP cites:

2012

Carter      61.3%
Wyman       35.0%

Romney      59.4%
Obama       38.1%

Keller      57.8%
Hampton     36.8%


2014

Carter      64.0%
Minor       32.0%

Abbott      61.5%
Davis       36.0%

Richardson  61.3%
Granberg    33.6%


2016

Carter      58.4%
Clark       36.5%

Trump       52.6%
Clinton     40.1%

Keasler     56.8%
Burns       37.3%

So forty percent is basically the high water mark for a Dem in CD31 this decade. (Barack Obama got 42.5% there in 2008.) That’s good, and it does tend to show a higher level of Dem engagement, especially compared to 2014, but we’re still a ways off. The 46% for Carter is more interesting, as it is a big dropoff from every non-Trump Republican. The question is whether this represents a bunch of undecided respondents who will come home next November, or it’s a genuine indicator of low enthusiasm. Also, the HD31 poll involves a specific opponent to Carter, one who will have to win a primary first, rather than a “generic Democrat” as in the CD07 and CD32 surveys. It’s possible the 40% level for MJ Hegar is lower than a “generic Dem” level might have been. As with any other poll, file it away for later when we have more data.

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