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2018 primary early voting Day One: Let’s get this started

And we’re off, with a few concerns about aftereffects of Harvey.

Hurricane Harvey may loom large in many Houston-area residents’ minds, but the storm is expected to have a limited impact on participation in the Texas primary, which kicks off Tuesday with the start of early voting.

Nearly two weeks of early balloting precedes the Lone Star State’s March 6 primary, the first in the nation.

“On one hand, we’re going to see a decline in turnout among some individuals who are displaced. On the other hand, I think there are some people who will counterbalance that decline because they’ve become more politically active and aware as a result of Harvey,” Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said. “The net effect is likely to be pretty neutral.”

Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart, whose office administers local elections, agreed.

“If it does, it’s going to be so small you won’t be able to measure it,” Stanart said. “Your primary voters are your core voters, your most loyal of voters, so those people tend to vote no matter what’s happening. So, I don’t anticipate much disruption in their voting patterns.”

I think turnout is going to be up due to a higher level of engagement this year, but we’ll soon see. It will be interesting to track the vote by State Rep district, to see how things may have changed from previous years.

Speaking of which, of course I have those totals, from 2010 and 2014. Google Drive is an amazing thing. And now we can add the 2018 totals and have a look at them all.


Year  Party   Mail In Person    Total
=====================================
2010    Dem  2,886     2,190    5,076
2010    Rep  5,946     2,774    8,720

2014    Dem  2,080     1,276    3,356
2014    Rep  9,048     2,807   11,855

2018    Dem  4,174     3,833    8,007
2018    Rep  6,138     3,509    9,646

So more Dems voted in person, but more Republicans voted overall because of more mail ballots being returned. Note, however, that more mail ballots were sent to Democratic voters (30,072) than to Republican voters (29,566), which is a big change from 2014. It’s one day and there’s a long way to go, but this is a strong start. I’ll keep an eye on this as we go. When do you plan to vote?

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11 Comments

  1. Manny Barrera says:

    Republicans voting for Republicans aka traitors, and Democrats voting for Democrats, the real test is in November long time away in political time.

  2. Flypusher says:

    I’ve decided on the Dem primary. No real opportunity to make the likes of Patrick and Cruz sweat by voting for their lackluster opposition (haven’t seen a single ad yet from whomever they are), and there are some quality people on the ballot for TX22. Also there are a lot more people on the ballot overall this year.

  3. Bill Daniels says:

    Fly:

    Patrick is being opposed in the primary by Scott Milder, a guy with decent enough credentials and has made it known that he is specifically NOT interested in another potty war. I’ll vote for him even though it’s doubtful he will be able to primary Dan.

  4. Julian Deleon says:

    Looks like Javed has a felony background. something about this guy was not right. I am sure there is more to come…

  5. Manny Barrera says:

    Julian are you such a Trump lover that you resort to making allegations without even a link to prove that you are not lying?

  6. C.L. says:

    @Manny, I think Julian is referring to this article..

    http://theexaminer.com/stories/news/congressional-candidate-hides-felony-voters

    Next time let your fingers do the walking (through Google) before getting all crazy.

  7. Bill Daniels says:

    Julian,

    Damn. If I lived in that district, I’d consider voting for Javed simply because of the attempted smear campaign. A 28 year old conviction that was fully erased via deferred adjudication? Aren’t Dems supposed to be the party of compassion and second chances? This guy spent the last 28 years building a successful business. How will this affect a security clearance? There;s no secret to blackmail him anymore.

    Plus, just think what this would do to Sleepy Jeff Sessions. He’d probably get the vapors or have a conniption fit if he found out someone who had a drug offense was in Congress. He might even spill his mint julep drink.

  8. Julian Deleon says:

    Bill Daniels,

    An experienced candidate should know voters have the right to do a simple Google search. I can’t speak to any ‘smear campaign’ when dealing with facts and folks running for office.

  9. Manny Barrera says:

    C.L. what is your problem, why should I have to resort to fact checking, if I make a claim I include a link. Now that your fingers and your time allows you to point to a link, all I can say is that the article is poorly written, I am left wondering what exactly did he do?

    I don’t have a horse in that race nor do I live in the District, but Deleon has often thrown out malicious statements about other candidates. I figure he is a paid person by a campaign that is not Javid’s.

    Julian you engage in smear campaigns all the time.

  10. Manny Barrera says:

    Julian remember below, that is smear for smear purpose only

    While Ivan has some great experience working for SJL, and it appears his following on social media is impressive, I don’t think it is enough to win our get into a run off because I’d bet those who are contributing to him on social media don’t live in the district and have not financially contributed to his campaign. The job with SJL was more community focused, which does not prepare him for the work to be done in congress.

    Ivan’s social media posts are I,I, me, me and Millennial related. The takeaway could be self absorbed and off putting to voters.

    Ivan should have been more thoughtful with the race he decided to join.

  11. Manny Barrera says:

    Julian remember this one, the Kuff article was not even about Carol,

    I hear Carol Alvarado has opponents. East End has been neglected for far to long by Carol. What Bills has Carol passed? East End is so neglected by Carol.

    So who is paying you Julian?