Time for a non-Mayoral poll. The story is about results, primary and general, in both California and Texas, so forgive the abrupt opening sentence.
In Texas, however, it’s a different picture, with Biden holding wide leads across nearly every major demographic divide among those likely to vote in the primary there. The former vice president also tops as best able to handle each of the five issues tested by no less than six points.
Biden prompts the highest enthusiasm among Texas’ likely Democratic primary voters (44% say they would be extremely enthusiastic about a Biden nomination vs. 38% for Sanders, 31% for Warren and 23% for Buttigieg).
On the Republican side of the primary picture, Donald Trump appears unlikely to face a serious challenge in either state. In Texas, 86% of likely Republican primary voters say they back the President, in California, it’s 85%. Neither of his declared opponents reaches even 5% support in either state.
But Trump’s approval rating overall is underwater in both states. In California, just 32% approve of the way the President is handling his job, while 61% disapprove. In Texas, 42% approve and 50% disapprove. Trump’s numbers among independents (38% approve) and women (34% approve) in Texas would seem to suggest a warning sign for his general election prospects in a reliably GOP state.
But hypothetical general election matchups in the Texas poll point the other way.
Trump and Biden run about even in Texas among registered voters, 48% back Trump to 47% for Biden. Against three other Democrats, Trump holds significant leads: He holds 51% over Warren’s 44%, and Buttigieg and Sanders each have 43% support to Trump’s 50% in their matchups.
You can find all of the poll data here. To summarize the important bits:
A1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Total Respondents Approve Disapprove No opinion December 4-8, 2019 42% 50% 8% October 9-13, 2018 41% 50% 10% Registered Voters December 4-8, 2019 48% 47% 5% October 9-13, 2018 47% 48% 6%Q12. If (NAME) were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party’s candidate, for whom would you be more likely to vote?
Biden Trump December 4-8, 2019 47 48 Buttigieg Trump December 4-8, 2019 43 50 Sanders Trump December 4-8, 2019 43 50 Warren Trump December 4-8, 2019 44 51
Those are relatively bad approval numbers for Trump, and better overall levels of support, at least in comparison to other recent polls. The same poll as noted shows Biden with a big lead in Texas in the Dem primary; I’m less interested in that. Otherwise, standard disclaimers apply – one poll, snapshot in time, lots of Dems haven’t made up their minds yet, etc – and that’s about all there is to say.
I’d be more excited if they had used a likely voter model, instead of just registered voters. I know that it is a little early for likely voter models, but Democrats always look a few points better in registered voter polls.