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Hegar to get a boost

Nice.

MJ Hegar

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced Tuesday that it will spend at least $1 million to help MJ Hegar in her challenge to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.

The DSCC said it will be the first time the committee has made a coordinated investment in a general election in Texas, and the money will go toward TV ads, polling and other campaign resources. The announcement comes after the DSCC commissioned a poll that found Cornyn and Hegar in a tight race.

“This race is a dead heat, and our increased investment reflects how MJ’s campaign and the increasingly competitive climate has put another offensive opportunity on the map,” DCCC Executive Director Scott Fairchild said in a statement to Politico, which first reported the news.

The DSCC called the spending a “seven-figure coordinated investment” but did not elaborate further. The Federal Election Commission has capped such spending — known as coordinated party expenditures — at $2,239,500 for the general election this cycle in Texas, and the DSCC already spent toward the limit supporting Hegar in her primary runoff.

[…]

The DSCC said its polling, conducted late last month, found Cornyn barely leading Hegar among likely voters, 43% to 42%, with 15% undecided. Public polling has painted a less rosy picture of the race for Hegar. A Morning Consult survey released Tuesday morning gave Cornyn a 6-point lead with likely voters, 44% to 38%, with 14% undecided. While the margin was wider than the one in the DSCC poll, it was nonetheless the smallest advantage Cornyn has registered so far in a public survey.

The DSCC investment is much-needed financial aid for Hegar, who entered the general election with a large cash-on-hand deficit against Cornyn. She had less than $1 million in reserves at the end of June, while Cornyn had $14.5 million. Cornyn did not have a competitive primary.

See here for more on that Morning Consult poll, and here for the Politico story. The DSCC has backed Hegar for months, so it’s good to see them stick with her. I don’t know a thing about this poll – this tweet from Hegar shows the first paragraph of the email she got about it – but as I’ve said before, the big thing to me is that Cornyn is more or less running even with Trump; he’s been ahead of Trump in a couple of polls, and behind him in some others, but usually within a point or two. If that remains the case, and if Biden wins Texas or comes close enough, that may be all that Hegar needs. Raising her name ID, mostly to prevent lower-information voters from wandering over to a third-party candidate, will help with that.

One more thing:

Of course, Beto was also on his way to raising $80 million and becoming a national phenomenon, neither of which are likely to happen for Hegar. But she does have the Presidential race on her side, and a template to follow. Beto did eventually lead Cruz in a couple of polls later in the race, but overall he trailed by about five points. Which, as we know, he outperformed. Now it’s on Hegar to match that.

(PS – Another thing I don’t know is what the Presidential number was in this poll. You’d think if it showed Biden leading it might have been mentioned, but then given how frequently he’s been leading, maybe not. Maybe if this poll had Biden leading by, like, three or four, it might have been reported as “Hegar lags behind Biden”, as it was in that Morning Consult story, and if so the Hegar campaign may have been reluctant to release that, since this was supposed to be about them. And if Biden had trailed Trump, say by the same one point margin, that might have been the story as well. In other words, there’s more than one possible explanation for why we only got what we got. In any event, all this is baseless speculation – we just don’t know. I actually think it’s slightly more plausible that Biden led Trump by a couple of points in this poll than he trailed him by any amount, but I’m just guessing. Feel free to play along.)

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15 Comments

  1. Claude says:

    The DSCC did Royce West and all the Democratic Senatorial candidates as injustice that many Texas voters won’t forget come election time.

  2. Bill Daniels says:

    MJ is a racist who took the nomination from a qualified black man. She should have stepped aside as soon as Royce entered the race, in the interest of social justice. She needs to have serious self reflection about her white privilege, and how it is hurting people of color. The fact that she won just shows how systemic racism is still very much alive and well, even in the Democrat Party.

  3. Bill Daniels says:

    Perhaps the way to address this systemic racism in politics is for handicapping to be used, like it is in golf. Give black candidates a +10 point bump, Hispanics +6 bump, Asians and American Indians a +5 bump, women get a +4 bump, gays get a +3 bump, transgender folks get a +4 bump, Muslims get +3, and these are stackable. So a black, transgender female candidate gets an 18 point boost. She runs against an Asian Muslim man who gets +8. Offset the points, and the black transgender female winds up with a +10 point handicap in the election.

    So if the black transgender female gets 46%, and the Asian Muslim man gets 54%, then the black transgender female is awarded the nomination, after the handicap points are added.

    We have affirmative action in other areas of life, why not when choosing political candidates, too? Either we are serious about racial justice, or we aren’t.

  4. Manny says:

    Donald Trump should have stepped aside as several much more qualified black men were running in 2016.

    Bill is always a racist, move to Russia Bill or do you already live there.

  5. Jen says:

    The GOP ran ads in favor of Royce West because they felt he would be easier to beat in November, due to the large number of racists in Texas ( like Bill). If you are planning to vote for Cornyn or just not vote because MJ won you aren’t much of a Democrat. I didn’t vote for her because the DSCC supported her, but I did take into account the GOP jujitsu with regard to Royce West. Newcomers don’t always win their first time out, it is not the end of the world. But we will be getting much closer to the end if we let the GOP retain power.

  6. Jen says:

    *GOP ads against Royce West were meant to garner support for him from Democrats

  7. Flypusher says:

    Good Lord Bill, that is mind-numbingly stupid even by the low standards we have for you.

  8. David Fagan says:

    So, by the handicap theory, a black transgender transracial gay woman would be the person every Democrat would support…….. wait a minute.

  9. C.L. says:

    Spoken like a true troll. Incredibly formulaic – post outrageous, inflammatory, dog whistle-ish, would-never-happen in any universe proposal, specifically designed to elicit a response from those you believe hold an opposing viewpoint, then sit back and watch them all express their outrage at your diatribe. Happens here, happens with Texas Monthly’s ‘viewer comments’, happens with NYTimes online stories, happens on foxnews.com, happens anywhere the websites allows readers to comment, etc. Shit, happens on theleadernews.com website where Jason Hochman frequently writes online letters to the Editor.

    Only way to eliminate the troll is to ignore the troll. Might take a while to see the decrease in outrageous posts taking place, but trolls crave the attention, and when the attention is non-existent, they move on.

  10. Jules says:

    CL, I’m in

  11. mollusk says:

    Good plan – reminds me of the Three Billy Goats Gruff.

  12. Manny says:

    Bill is like a cancer, ignoring it does not make it go away.

  13. brAD says:

    Ok, but it is tough to smell when you step in their troll/dog poo…its an awful smell that really requires calling out.

  14. C.L. says:

    Manny, amigo, you’re going to have to learn to shake that hook.