What is the level of Latino support for Trump in Texas?

We have some contradictory evidence this week. First, from Texas Elects:

President Trump leads presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 48%-41%, among “all voters” and by a slightly smaller 49.5%-44% margin among voters who indicated they were “extremely likely to vote,” according to a new YouGov poll (PDF) conducted for the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation and Rice Univ.’s Baker Institute. Nearly 80% of each candidate’s voters said their choice was “very strong,” and less than 3% of either candidate’s voters said they might change their mind.

It is Trump’s largest lead in a reputable Texas poll since May.

Trump leads among Anglos (62%-27%) and men (56%-38%). Biden leads among Hispanics/Latinos (47%-38%), Black voters (82%-6%) and women (43%-41%). About one out of every seven women voters are unsure compared to about one out of every 20 men.

Trump’s favorability rating is 48/49 (35/42 “very” favorable/unfavorable), and Biden’s is 39/52 (22/43 “very”). Trump’s “handling of the coronavirus outbreak” led 22% of respondents to say they are more likely and 30% to say they are less likely to vote for him.

Interestingly, the poll asked respondents about their views of the state Republican Party. Since Trump’s election in 2016, “almost one in five Texans (19.2%) now has a more negative opinion of the Texas GOP than they had before his election, while only a mere 3.5% now have a more favorable opinion of the party.”

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) leads Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, 44%-37%, among “all voters” and 47%-41% among the likeliest voters. Cornyn’s favorability rating is 37/36, and Hegar’s is 34/21. About three out of every 10 voters “don’t know enough” about Hegar to have an opinion.

The survey of 892 respondents was conducted online. It was in the field August 3-14. A margin of error was not indicated.

You can see the poll report here. That’s actually the first statewide poll of Texas we’ve seen since August 3, and indeed it is easily the best result for Trump in months. For whatever the reason, there’s not been that much news about it – I saw a DMN story, but not much else. The Latino numbers are the headline here, and if your eyebrows went up at seeing 39% for Trump, I’m sure you have company. For what it’s worth, I went back through the earlier poll results we have, and pulled out the Biden-versus-Trump numbers for their Latino subsamples. Not all polls include this data, but for those that do, here’s what we have for the months of June through August:

Quinnipiac, July 22: Biden 53, Trump 29
CBS/YouGov, July 12: Biden 60, Trump 30
UT/Trib, July 3: Biden 46, Trump 39
Fox News, June 25: Biden 62, Trump 25
PPP/Progress Texas, June 23: Biden 64, Trump 27
PPP/TDP, June 5: Biden 66, Trump 23
Quinnipiac, June 2: Biden 53, Trump 32

The UT/Trib poll is done via online panel as well, and you can see it basically agrees with this result, though the CBS poll that was also a YouGov panel does not. None of these other polls show anything like this result, with the June Quinnipiac poll giving Biden a 21-point lead the closest to it. There are lots of possible reasons why this particular Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation is so different – it could be an outlier, it could be an effect of this type of poll versus a live-caller or robo-caller poll, it could be that weighting (this poll was weighted to the 2016 result) causes a weird distortion especially in the polls with smaller Latino subsamples, and it could be that this poll is picking up something that others have not. You know what I say, one poll can only tell us so much.

And indeed, on Wednesday we got this Somos/UnidosUS poll, done by Latino Decisions, which covered multiple states including Texas. They got a very different result:

Trump’s mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic is hurting his standing with Latino voters ahead of the general election; they do not trust his advice and he has lost significant ground with this electorate since May.

• 70% of Latinos disapprove of Trump’s handling of coronavirus, up from 56% disapproval in May.
• Trump earns an average trust rating of 3.1 on a scale of 0-10, down from 3.3 in May.
• 73% of Latinos think Trump delayed early warning signs and because of his incomplete response thousands of Americans are dead – up from 67% in May.
• 77% of Latinos support a national mask mandate and continued quarantine to keep covid in check.
• Today, 69% of Latinos say they are certain to vote, up from 62% in May; a good indication that Latino enthusiasm is starting to increase.
• Today the national Latino vote is 66% Biden, 24% Trump, a 42-point margin. In May Biden had 61% support.
• Biden leads in double-digits with Latinos in key battleground states including Arizona: 63% Biden, 29% Trump; Florida: 55% Biden, 41% Trump; North Carolina 61% Biden, 24% Trump, and Pennsylvania 59% Biden, 28% Trump.

Candidates and campaigns are at a critical point to increase outreach to Latino voters, which is
something that is important to mobilizing the electorate in this challenging time.

• Asked if either party, or non-partisan civic groups had contacted them in 2020, fully 64% of Latino registered voters said no, they had not received any contact.
• Only 24% reported Democratic contact and just 14% had received Republican contact; less than 10% had been contacted by non-partisan group.

They did in fact poll Texas Latinos as well – I have no idea why they didn’t include that in their bullet point summary – but if you scroll down to Slide 23, you will see that the Texas numbers are 66 for Biden and 21 for Trump, with 13% undecided. That would be the best result for Biden, though it’s not far out of line with several earlier polls.

That last bullet point suggests another possible reason for the big variations we’ve seen across these polls, which is the level of engagement for Latino voters. One thing both of these polls makes clear is that Latino voters want to hear from candidates and campaigns, and their enthusiasm, which among other things could manifest in a willingness to take part in a poll, can also vary greatly. Past polling by Latino Decisions has shown that lower-propensity Latino voters are more strongly Democratic than higher-propensity Latino voters, which is to say that lower turnout among Latinos also tends to mean better Republican performance among Latino voters. There’s a way in which both of these results are true to some extent, and the variable is the way in which Democrats engage with these voters. Just something to keep in mind.

Related Posts:

This entry was posted in Election 2020 and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

11 Responses to What is the level of Latino support for Trump in Texas?

  1. Jules says:

    Steve Bannon has been arrested, for defrauding jerks who contributed to his build the wall con.

    I think they did spend some money on the wall – the part of the wall that is eroding.

  2. Flypusher says:

    “It is morally wrong to allow suckers to keep their $”- one of the many corollaries of Murphy’s Law.

    Also: https://www.politicalorphans.com/autumn-in-griftopia/

  3. Jules says:

    Thanks for the link, Fly.

    I read that Bannon was arrested by the Post Office police. Extra sweetner for my schadenfreude.

  4. Bill Daniels says:

    Since this seems to be the off topic thread, I’ll just :

    Do I need to point out that the DNC just featured Donna Hylton, a woman convicted of the rape, torture, and murder, of a white man, at their convention? Out of all the people to highlight as a revered Democrat leader, we have Donna, who famously said about her white rape and murder victim, “He was a homo anyway.” I guess being a homo is certainly grounds for having a 3 foot long steel rod forcibly shoved up your butt while being tortured to death.

    Restore the soul of America. Donna Hylton.


  5. Manuel Barrera says:

    Bill why not join the rest of the QAnon loomers, you are so full of it, you constantly lie about everything while you hide behind a fictitious name.

    Ross gave a very good response to Bill Daniels at another website, that I will re-post and add that Bill has the same redeeming qualities as Trump. none.

    Bill, how do you square your undying love for Trump with the fact that he is a liar, stupid beyond belief, treats women merely as a place to put his penis, is destroying the country, is destroying alliances built over 70 plus years, cheats suppliers to his businesses, tries to destroy the post office for personal gain, and is a narcissistic bully? Are you just blind? Trump is by far the worst President in my lifetime, which I thought Jimmy Carter had locked up forever.
    Trump has done nothing to make this country stronger. Everything he has done is intended to make him and his family richer, regardless of who gets hurt. And that’s ignoring his utter failure on Covid. The man is a stupid menace with no redeeming qualities

  6. Bill Daniels says:


    Is it your contention that Donna Hylton did NOT speak at the DNC convention? I mean, it’s provable that she did.


    Is this one of those alternate reality things, like “I believe truth over facts?”

  7. Manny says:

    So who cares if she spoke or not, Trump is a crook, a liar, a traitor, latest buddy indicted today, I could go on but I don’t have all night.

    Like it makes it a difference to anyone but the racists like you whether she spoke or not. Trump wanted Don King to speak at the 2016 convention.

    She served her time and paid for the crime. But tell me Bill why do you think it is important?

    Should only good people speak, then Trump should not be allowed. He is responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of people. He had a duty to protect Americans and he failed to do that.

    If he was a parent who did not take the medical precautions when a child is sick or injured, the parent could be charged with a crime. Parent leaves child in car, a crime. Trump had a duty and he failed, he belongs behind bars.

  8. Bill Daniels says:

    OK Manny,

    Let’s look at another criminal that was featured last night…..a formerly deported illegal alien, who told us what a big meanie Trump is for deporting her, but failed to mention that she was initially deported by Bill Clinton, and rearrested after sneaking in again by…..Barack Obama. But she’s butt hurt because Trump went ahead and deported her….again.


    But let’s stop talking about convicted criminals and start looking at the DNC invitees who committed crimes, but were never charged, like Colin Powell. If you’ll remember, he was one of the biggest cheerleaders for Bush’s criminal war on Iraq. Colin Powell is an unindicted war criminal, as are most of the rest of the Bush cabal. And THIS is the guy you want to speak to your convention. The blood of thousands of American servicemen, and the blood of tens or hundreds of thousands of Iraqis are on Colin Powell’s hands.

    The left used to be anti-war, Manny. Now you have warmongers as speakers at your convention. What happened?

  9. Manny says:

    The entire Trump family and half of his cabinet have not been charged and are criminals, wondering how long your racism would take to appear.

    Remember your words about those person that you hate so much;

    Bill Daniels: … give orders for the soldiers to shoot to kill any person entering the kill zone from the Mexican side, period. Women? Children? Old people? Military age males? Waste anyone that crosses from Mexico into the US. Back that up with predator drones . and perhaps an A-10 every 3 or 4 hundred miles, for close air support for larger groups, and you’ve secured the border, with no fences. https://www.offthekuff.com/wp/?p=89263

    Bill you have a lot of hate, move to another country since you hate America so much. I seriously doubt that any developed country would accept you.

  10. Bill Daniels says:

    Oh, lookie here….voter fraud so bad the whole election has to be redone:


    I’m stoked about doing this nationally!

  11. Manny says:

    Bill first of all it proves the point that mail fraud is easy to spot and the abusers risk jail.

    But let us talk about the Trump criminal family enterprise;

    President Trump’s former campaign chief (not the one arrested Thursday) Paul Manafort was convicted of multiple felonies, as was Trump’s former deputy campaign manager Rick Gates, his former lawyer Michael Cohen, his former fix-it man Roger Stone and his former national security adviser Michael Flynn. Let us add Bannon to the list.

    The NRA another Republican company enterprise.

    Jerry Falwell, Jr, and his his zipper down photo with a woman also down with her zipper down, it was not his wife.

    Your type of people you can find over at big jolly where you get lots of thumbs up. You know the low information type that will believe all the bs that you push.

Comments are closed.