Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden emerged from his national convention with a 1 percentage point lead in Texas over Republican President Donald Trump, a poll scheduled for wide release on Tuesday shows.
The results from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, obtained Monday by the USA TODAY Network, shows Biden’s small lead coming from his strength among female and minority voters, plus those with four years of college or more.
Overall, among the 764 registered voters contacted randomly on Friday and Saturday after last week’s Democratic National Convention, 48% said they plan to vote for Biden while 47% are for Trump. Four years ago, Trump carried Texas by 9 percentage points to keep alive the GOP’s winning streak in Texas that began in 1980.
But the new poll, which carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, also shows that 7% of Trump’s voters in 2016 have moved to the Biden camp while only 3% of those who backed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton four years ago have migrated to Trump.
I can’t find any poll data for this one – the TDP had a press release on Monday that included a poll data link, but it was a PDF from the June 5 poll that had Biden and Trump tied at 48. Didn’t find any mention of it on the PPP webpage or Twitter feed, which suggests to me this was another commissioned poll, presumably by the TDP. Make of it what you will.
UPDATE: Via Patrick Svitek, you can find the poll data here. As an FYI, the Latino vote is 72-20 for Biden in this sample. Just a data point – I think that’s on the high side – but felt it was worth a mention.