We should listen and at least consider what he’s saying.
HISD loses the recapture money, one way or another, even if it doesn’t actually write a check.
And the state gets its money one way or another, because the taxes from the removed properties will go to a poorer district in Harris County, letting the state reduce its funding to that district.
But here’s the thing: If HISD writes a check to the state, it loses only the amount of the check. But, if the district gives up taxable property, it loses the recapture amount, plus all the bond taxes the district would have collected off that property.
That means the tax rate we all pay for bond payments, now and in the future, has to go up to make up for the taxes lost from the lost property.
And, once the property is gone, it’s gone forever. No take backs or fingers crossed.
State law actually favors districts that send cash. There’s an “early decision” discount available for those districts. A no vote means we pay the full price.
Voting no is like giving away your garage to avoid paying property taxes on your house. That’s why no district in the state has ever chosen the option of having property removed instead of sending a check. It’s a bad deal.
The argument for voting no is that it will “send a message” to the legislature that it needs to fix the school funding system, and the legislature will obey. Maybe, but I served 20 years in the Texas Legislature working on these issues, and I don’t buy it. It’s not a bet I would make, much less risk HISD taxpayers’ money on.
Hochberg isn’t saying anything we haven’t heard before, but because he’s Scott Hochberg, who knows more about school finance than anyone else in the state, we have to take it seriously. To a large degree, this comes down to how much of a chance you think there is that the Lege will take positive action after a No vote. (On that note, a small bit of dissent to what Hochberg says: If you do believe that the Lege could take positive action, you can also believe they’ll do something about how detachment works as well. It may well be crazy to believe this, but if you’re going to believe it you may as well be all in.) I maintain there is no “good” answer on this, and Hochberg is clear about the many shortcomings of the school finance system, which he worked hard and long to improve. It’s a question of what is less bad. Hochbeg’s case for a Yes vote on the recapture referendum is a strong one. Other people whom I respect make a strong case for No. Do what you think is least bad.