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That UH/Hobby poll has Judge Hidalgo up by one in Harris County

Don’t know how many of these polls we’re going to get.

Democrat Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo holds a 1 percentage point lead over Republican opponent Alexandra del Moral Mealer in polling results released Thursday by the University of Houston.

Hidalgo leads del Moral Mealer 48 percent to 47 percent with 5 percent undecided, among likely voters, putting the two candidates in a “statistical dead heat” in the Harris County 2022 county judge race, according to the report.

In the Texas 2022 gubernatorial race, Democrat Beto O’Rourke holds a 9 percent lead over Republican Greg Abbott, with O’Rourke leading Abbott 51 percent to 42 percent among Harris County likely voters.

The online survey was conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs between June 27 and July 7, in English and Spanish, with 321 respondents who are registered to vote in Texas. The margin of error is plus- or minus 5.47 percent.

Del Moral Mealer holds a 31-percentage point advantage over Hidalgo among white voters, while Hidalgo holds a 66-point advantage over del Moral Mealer among Black voters. Del Moral Mealer holds a 3-percentage point edge over Hidalgo among Latino voters. Hidalgo holds a 14-point lead over del Moral Mealer among women, while del Moral Mealer holds a 13-point edge among men.

See here for the Abbott/Beto poll post, and here for the poll details. Some of the subsample numbers are a little strange, but that’s what you get sometimes. Beto beat Ted Cruz in Harris County by a 58-41 margin in 2018, and I have to say it’s hard for me to see how the Governor’s race could be as close as five points if he’s only leading in Harris by nine. I don’t expect to get a whole lot of other Harris County-specific polls, though we may get more numbers from the Hobby Center before it’s all said and done. As always, putting too much faith in one poll result is a hazard to your health, so use this story wisely.

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7 Comments

  1. This is very frustrating. Democrat Erica Davis would be up on Mealer by at least 9 or 10 points right now. Unfortunately, Lina Hidalgo’s mismanagement of Harris County government may drag down the entire local Democratic ticket. I think we could probably survive all of Hidalgo’s left-wing “big government” ideology, wasteful spending programs, bloated county bureaucracy, backroom deals, incompetence (election administrator, JWEB fiascos), adversarial relationship with law enforcement agencies, questionable ethics, and her inability to learn from, or even acknowledge, mistakes (she dismisses every criticism as a “political attack”). Most people are focused on their own lives and might not notice all those issues. What most people (voters) do notice, however, is Hidalgo’s lack of effective, proactive leadership, especially when it comes to the on-going violent crime wave, broken county courts & county jail, higher county taxes (thru property appraisals), and county government corruption (alleged contract bid-rigging). By her own admission, Hidalgo expects to be personally indicted (not just her staff) in that on-going corruption scandal. Given all this baggage, I guess we really should be happy with a poll showing a “dead heat” in the race. If/when a grand jury does indict Hidalgo, her polling numbers will rightfully plummet. While Republicans might be ok with electing alleged, unethical crooks, most Democrats are not.

    Lina Hidalgo’s issues were well known before the March Democratic primary election. We could have simply avoided all this drama by nominating Erica Davis, a highly qualified moderate Democrat, for County Judge. This is definitely an unforced error.

  2. Ross says:

    Greg. Bullshit.

  3. Kibitzer says:

    Who is Erica Davis?

  4. C.L. says:

    Ross, Kibitzer….one point. One point between Lina and del Moral Mealer. If Lina was doing such a bang up job, how exactly do you explain this lack of trounce ?

  5. policywonqueria says:

    FETICIDE FATIGUE

    If Lina wants to retain her personal appeal to the wider community (and she does have that gift of engendering likeability, not to mention being “one of us” in her native Spanish), she should stop talking about abortion. Why? – Because it’s a sore topic for many, and the coathanger brigade is going to vote for her anyhow.

    What if you have lost a baby? What if you were given away and adopted? How you supposed to feel when it’s implied you shouldn’t have been allowed to live?
    What if you can’t get pregnant but want to? How then are you not pained when others who are not ready flush the unwanted “product of conception” down the toilet because, you know, it’s between me and my plumber? Have you no regard for the feelings of those for whom this is a painful thing? And what if you were yourself an “accident” but were nevertheless embraced with love and sacrifice by your natural parents. Or by someone else who didn’t think the circumstances of your conception were all that important. But let you know and feel what was and remains important is you: a unique human being loved and appreciated. Capable of returning love and appreciation, hopefully.

    Talking condom sense might make sense, too: Prophylaxis.

    Why have men been aborted from the reproduction discussion?

    Condón promotion could be sold as good public health policy, not just prevention of pregnancy when not desired.

    TRANSFORMATIVISM

    As for all the trans stuff, make it trans-Atlantic and inter-continental.

    A few new sister city projects perhaps, and youth exchange programs with foreign language, culture, and cuisine components. Perhaps tri-, not just bi- when it comes to the lingua. And don’t make kids’ rejection of their natural sex an eligibility criterion.

  6. Ross, we will just have to agree to disagree. As C.L. pointed out, the dead-heat poll speaks for itself. In the same Harris County poll, Beto is up by 9 points.

    Policywonqueria, while being pro-choice is a winning issue nationality, I’m not sure it will be locally, especially among Hispanics – see below:

    https://www.harriscountydemocrats.com/post/could-abortion-separate-hispanic-catholic-voters-from-our-local-pro-choice-democratic-candidates

  7. Joel says:

    rolo, i am once again shocked that you are allowed out in public with all that disingenuity, and once again i am glad not to be in the position to have to pay to host your ugliness. it’s not even funny.