November 2023 Day Eleven EV totals: About to break records

With one day to go in early voting, we are about to set a record.

Year    Mail     Early    Total
2015   27,952  128,611  156,563
2019   14,280  103,945  118,225
2023   14,034  171,673  185,707

The final EV totals from 2015 are here and the final EV totals from 2019 are here. The daily EV report is being posted online now here, but I’m still grabbing a copy each day and saving it for my purposes. The Day Eleven file is here.

The final early turnout in 2015 was 193,963, which we will easily surpass. The 171K in person early voters is already more than the 164K in person early voters from 2015. The final EV total in 2015 was 152,764, and we passed that total on Wednesday. Both 2015 and 2019 saw about 35K total voters on their last day; if we get that today, we’ll hit 220K. Going by previous calculations, that would suggest a bit more than 140K City of Houston voters.

It’s also reasonable to think that we’re still on track for about half the vote turning out on Tuesday. The Harris County final vote total in 2015 was 421K, and that should be easily in reach – we’d only need about 47% of the vote to happen on Tuesday for that, and as we know more than half the vote was on Election Day in each of those last two elections. Again, things could change and we may find that the vote has shifted up in the calendar, as has been the case in even-numbered years. But right now, I think we’re on track for record early voting, record final voting, and maybe a new high-water mark for city of Houston voting. Ask me again after the Friday numbers are in.

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