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More or stronger?

If we’re talking about hurricanes, neither sounds like an attractive choice.

A new study with the most extensive computer modeling of storm activity to date suggests the overall number of Atlantic storms will fall 30 percent by century’s end, but the number of the strongest category 4 and 5 hurricanes will increase by 81 percent.

The study comes after half a decade of intense research, in the wake of the record-setting 2005 hurricane season that included Katrina and Rita, by scientists to understand how a warmer climate might affect hurricane activity.

This isn’t the final word, of course, but it does seem to be an emerging consensus. I suppose if I had to pick, I’d prefer more less-intensive storms, as I think overall that would cause less damage, but I don’t feel too strongly about it.

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One Comment

  1. Joe White says:

    given the current state of modeling, I’d take those predictions with several grains of salt.