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PPP poll shows Obama leading Perry in Texas

Perhaps this will put a little dent in the Perry-for-President bandwagon.

A potential Rick Perry Presidential bid has been getting oodles of attention in the last few weeks. There’s one place where voters aren’t real into the possibility though- Texas. Only 33% of voters in the state think he should make a bid for the White House compared to 59% opposed to him running. More surprising than that? Perry actually trails Barack Obama 47-45 in a hypothetical match up in the state.

Perry’s trailing Obama certainly has nothing to do with the President being popular. Only 42% of voters in the state like the job he’s doing to 55% who rate him poorly. Texas is a Republican state to begin with him and Obama has a lot more Democrats (14%) who disapprove of him than GOP voters who approve (6%) and beyond that he’s on negative ground with independents at 46/47.

Perry, however, is almost as unpopular. Only 43% of voters approve of him with 52% giving him bad marks. Most striking in Perry’s numbers is a horrible 33/62 standing with independents. He also has 21% of Republicans disapproving of him while only 12% of Democrats cross over to give him good marks. Perry may prove to be a strong Presidential candidate but his numbers in Texas are nothing to write home about.

The only potential Republican candidate for President in Texas who does as bad as Perry is Sarah Palin. She has a 37/55 favorability breakdown and trails Obama 46-44 in a head to head. That’s just more confirmation that the GOP nominating her could lead to a 400+ electoral vote landslide reelection for Obama.

Most of the rest of the GOP field leads Obama. Mitt Romney fares the best with an 8 point lead at 50-42, Ron Paul is up 5 at 45-40, Michele Bachmann has a 3 point advantage at 47-44, and Tim Pawlenty’s up by a single point at 44-43. Herman Cain ties the President at 43%.

Full data for the poll are here. The numbers all seem reasonable to me – nothing stands out as being obviously outlying compared to other polls. The sample voted 52-41 for McCain in 2008; the R/D/I numbers were 44/35/21. Note that outside of Perry and Palin, Obama’s range is 40 to 44, which is far from unreasonable. It’s one result, and all of the usual disclaimers apply, but this certainly isn’t evidence against my hypothesis about a Perry Presidential candidacy.

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  1. Mike says:

    I’d be shocked if Perry runs and does not win Texas. I hate the guy, but still….

  2. Who are you kidding? 21% of Republicans disapprove of him? LOL, which means 79% APPROVE OF HIM?

    As far as who was actually polled, I highly question the polling data as well. If you are educated in the slightest, one knows that the only polling data that matters is on voting day.

    That being said…….Obama will NEVER TAKE Texas no matter who runs in 2012-FACT!

    You can dislike Perry all you want, facts are pesky things!

  3. […] here for the earlier poll details. As I’ve been saying, there’s no evidence so far in Texas […]