Precinct analysis: At Large #4

At Large #4 features a newcomer and a multi-time candidate in its runoff.

Dist  Edwards  Hansen  Blackmon  Robinson  Thompson  Murphy  Morales
A       3,707     572       662     2,378     2,565   1,844    2,702
B      10,732     306     1,296     2,109     1,160     327    1,477
C      11,309   1,226     1,189     6,688     3,891   2,967    3,911
D      12,636     400     2,691     2,618     1,559     542    1,902
E       3,612   1,054       960     3,197     5,033   5,288    4,158
F       2,673     438       542     1,368     1,370     713    1,675
G       4,914   1,150       960     7,210     5,746   4,073    4,193
H       4,121     304       475     1,397       982     468    4,664
I       3,187     302       537     1,022       895     418    4,568
J       1,911     281       325     1,031       909     408    1,339
K       8,357     395     1,444     2,555     1,730     646    1,900
A      25.69%   3.96%     4.59%    16.48%    17.78%  12.78%   18.72%
B      61.65%   1.76%     7.45%    12.12%     6.66%   1.88%    8.49%
C      36.27%   3.93%     3.81%    21.45%    12.48%   9.52%   12.54%
D      56.54%   1.79%    12.04%    11.71%     6.98%   2.43%    8.51%
E      15.50%   4.52%     4.12%    13.72%    21.60%  22.69%   17.84%
F      30.45%   4.99%     6.17%    15.58%    15.61%   8.12%   19.08%
G      17.40%   4.07%     3.40%    25.53%    20.34%  14.42%   14.84%
H      33.20%   2.45%     3.83%    11.26%     7.91%   3.77%   37.58%
I      29.16%   2.76%     4.91%     9.35%     8.19%   3.82%   41.80%
J      30.80%   4.53%     5.24%    16.62%    14.65%   6.58%   21.58%
K      49.08%   2.32%     8.48%    15.01%    10.16%   3.79%   11.16%
Amanda Edwards

Amanda Edwards

Amanda Edwards turns in an impressive performance, even more so for being a first time candidate. It occurred to me in looking at these numbers that Edwards has the kind of profile that would make for a strong challenger to Michael Kubosh – a progressive African-American with solid business/establishment credentials. Of course, a candidate with that profile would be a formidable opponent for anyone, which is a big part of the reason she did so well here. Every candidate in the runoff is at least somewhat dependent on the Mayor’s race, as that will do far more to determine who votes and how many of them there are, but Edwards’ first round performance makes her less dependent on that than most.

I suspect a lot of people (I was one) expected Laurie Robinson to do better than she did. She’d run before, she collected a decent number of endorsements, including a few from more conservative groups who apparently weren’t too impressed with the Republican candidates in the race, and it seemed likely she would collect a fair share of the vote in districts B and D. Instead, Edwards blew her out of the water, so much so that Robinson slipped into third place and out of the runoff. Robinson did slightly worse in these districts than she did in 2011, though here there were seven candidates including three African-Americans, while in 2011 there were four and two. One possible explanation for this is that people may have held a grudge against her for opposing then-CM Jolanda Jones, who was forced into a runoff she eventually lost. I have no way to test that hypothesis, so it’s just a guess. Whatever the case, if Robinson wants to take another crack at a Council campaign in 2019, her inability to do well in these districts is an issue she’s going to have to address.

With Roy Morales sneaking ahead of Laurie Robinson into the runoff, this race shapes up as D-versus-R, as are most of the others. In this case, while there were several Rs in the first round, they combined to score almost no endorsements from the Republican/conservative establishment; as noted above, Robinson did better with that crowd than Morales, Matt Murphy, Jonathan Hansen, and Evelyn Husband Thompson combined. They’re pulling together for Morales now, as they did at the tail end of the 2009 Mayor’s race, and Morales does have the advantage of picking up some low-information votes in districts H and I, but this is Morales’ third runoff out of five citywide races (2007 AL3 special election, 2007 AL3 November election, 2009 Mayor, 2013 AL3, and 2015 AL4, with the first, fourth, and fifth being the runoff races) and it’s hard to see him doing any better than he has done before. One should never take anything for granted, but I suspect the Vegas oddsmakers would install Edwards as a strong favorite in this race.

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13 Responses to Precinct analysis: At Large #4

  1. Manuel Barrera says:

    Not sure if that was poke at the Latino voters in H and I, “low information voters”. It sure seemed that way, but then again both the Democrats and Republicans vote straight party about 70% of the time. Low information voters comes in all colors, ethnicity, and party. I will bet that there will be more informed voters from H and I then there will be from any other district, because the ones that do come back out to vote will be better informed.

    Are were you trying to say, Spanish last name, so let us vote for him/her? If yes then you are correct, but then again the other people, White, Black, Asian, do the same.

    In fact I will wager that Edwards will get a much higher percentage of votes from B, D, and K then Morales will get from H and I. Will the author of the article then say that those Districts have higher number of low information voters. I will point out that those council district voted about 70/30 against HERO. H and I was closer to 58/42. I guess that is why the author of the article is claiming that H and I are low information voters?

  2. PDiddie says:

    My No God, Manny gets one right.

    Garcia’s effort at boosting turnout is what pushed Morales into the runoff, and the rest of the goofy conservatives split that vote, much like the Dems in AL1.

    By the way, as a supporter of Prop 2, I wonder if these ridiculous cattle calls for open seats will grow or slim down in four years. I hope for the latter and expect the former.

  3. Paul Kubosh says:

    It occurred to me in looking at these numbers that Edwards has the kind of profile that would make for a strong challenger to Michael Kubosh – a progressive African-American with solid business/establishment credentials.

    I was waiting for the other shoe to drop. Don’t you just hate it that he won.

  4. Katy Anders says:

    To Manny’s point, yes, it happens. I lived in Omaha for a while, and there’s always one or two unknown college students with Polish last names who run in local elections and get 8% of the vote just based on the “-owski” part of their names. It’s sort of human nature to hear, “I’m voting for that Guhndelstadt. He sounds like an upstanding German kid.”

    As far as Edwards is concerned, she’s a superstar in the making. I saw her speak at a very small forum, before several other City Council candidates, and no one else was even close to the same league with her. If she plays her cards right, she could really get somewhere in politics.

  5. Manuel Barrera says:

    Well PDiddie, we are getting closer to making you a believer, the G was capitalized. I bet I have as much chance as proving the existence of God as you do as proving there is no God.

    May the force be with you, where ever one thinks the force originates.

    Ms. Anders, I am sure that all those mailers that Ms. Edwards mailed may have some bearing as to how she did in certain districts (she made sure she looked very pretty, can’t show smart). She may be brilliant but the vast majority of the voters don’t know it or would have no way to gauge it. If the ability to debate is one of the top criteria, one must love Ted Cruz. He played his cards right. look what he is running for and has a decent chance to get the nomination. I read that a certain Adolf also had such a canny ability as to mesmerize people. I should not leave out Obama and I am very disappointed in him, but I did not vote for him either time. Wasn’t he going to be the uniter?

  6. She should have run against kubosh

    $200,000 in campaign donations, no?

    And a harvard law degree.

    She should have more substance on her website.

    This unwritten rule that at large 4 is saved for black people is stupid.

  7. Paul,

    Is your brother going to put together a platform?

  8. Paul Kubosh says:

    I can’t resist. Joseph are you going to file a campaign report? Sorry Kuffner, I will not go off topic again.

  9. Burt Levine says:

    Michael Berry held at large 4 and while his two young sons are African American, he is not.

  10. Paul,

    Does it really matter?
    Are you really that stupid?
    If there is a problem, anyone can easily call and file anonymously with the Texas Ethics Commission.
    Although, I will make a mockery of it.

    Again, is your brother going to put together a platform or will he hide behind you?

  11. Manuel Barrera says:

    Joseph I don’t believe one can file a complaint anonymously with the Texas Ethics Commission.

    Any individual may file a sworn complaint with the Texas Ethics Commission alleging a violation of certain laws.

    It is difficult to file a sworn complaint if you don’t place someone’s name there.

    Paul it is possible that he filed a less than $500 form, which allows one not to file a campaign report. Have to go check with the City Secretary to see if he filed one. Don’t believe they have those online.

    Joseph I see you are running for State Rep. District 125, I will assume that you are running under the Green Party platform. But I was not able to figure out what platform you had when you ran for City Council.

    I am curious do you think calling people stupid helps the Green Party?

  12. Manuel,

    My platform was on my website. I’m done pretending to be stupid, I hope voters are to.
    If I want to pretend to be stupid I’m go back to work for certain previous employers.

    I did pay the $500 filing fee.

    Does it really matter?

    If it’s a problem, Paul Kubosh along with the clear lake democrats can contact the TEC

    Yes, candidates who recieve tens of thousands of campaign money but do not take the time to put together a platform, are stupid.

    127, not 125.

  13. Joseph Marty says:

    Amanda Edwards and Tom McCasland are the 2 young candidates from this election that should be in everyones radar in Houston politics for years to come. While Tom did not win or made it in the runoff this does not mean he ran a bad campaign. Perhaps there is a thing as too much grassroots. I like the passion that he has for bicycles and walking streets, but in Houston everything comes at a slow pace. When you are running for office in Houston sometimes taking the car is not a bad thing.

    Now for Edwards. Smart, humbled, & grounded. Not very many have it in politics, but whether she is speaking in front of a large crowd of over 100 people or a room of just 4 people in a civic club meeting Edwards showed graced and humility under both settings. Big thank you for treating the average person with the same level of respect as her political donors.

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