A new survey released Thursday by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Democratic challengers for county wide office rising sharply against Republican incumbents.
It also showed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with a seven-point lead over Republican Donald Trump, which Hobby research associate and poll author Bob Stein called “the biggest lead I’ve ever seen a Democratic presidential candidate have in the 37 years I’ve been polling in Houston.”
Barack Obama beat Republicans John McCain by 1.6 percent in 2008, and Mitt Romney by less than 1 percent in 2012.
“The big takeaway here is the Democratic surge,” Stein said.
The poll, a telephone survey of 400 registered Harris County voters, showed Democratic challenger Kim Ogg ahead of incumbent Republican Devon Anderson by seven points, 40 percent to 33 percent. A similar survey released by UH in September showed Ogg and Anderson in a virtual tie, 29 to 30 percent.
The new poll has a margin of error of plus- or minus 4.5 percent.
The poll also showed Ed Gonzalez, the Democratic candidate for Harris County sheriff, in a virtual tie with Republican incumbent Ron Hickman. The UH poll last month showed Hickman six points ahead.
Stein, who also teaches political science at Rice University, cautioned that the wording on the two polls was not identical, making direct comparisons difficult.
Here is the new poll data. Another reason why it’s a bit dicey to compare this poll to the one from September is that they classified the voters differently. In September, we had Registered Voters, Likely Voters, and Extremely Likely Voters. Clinton led Trump 43-34 among Likely Voters, but only 43-39 among Extremely Likely Voters. In this month’s poll, we have Very Likely To Vote and Certain To Vote, with Clinton leading 46-34 (!) among the Certain To Vote cohort, but trailing (!!) 43-33 among the Likely To Vote crowd. Prof. Stein suggests in the article that there’s an enthusiasm gap that favors the Democrats and accounts for this difference. Putting that aside and just focusing on the topline result, if Hillary Clinton is really leading in Harris County by seven points, not only will this almost certainly portend a complete Democratic sweep, it also adds credence to the ever-closer statewide margins, and to my mind also very likely presages a blue Fort Bend.
As for the Sheriff and DA races, I’ll say what I said in September, which is that they will almost certainly be determined by the Presidential race. Both Devon Anderson and Kim Ogg have money to spend on TV advertising, which may move the needle a bit one way or the other, but I for one haven’t seen much on the air so far, just a couple of Ogg spots from a week or so ago. I’d love to see at least one more poll from a different source, just as a check in case this is an outlier, but for now this is what we have. Early in-person voting begins Monday, and I know that a bunch of mail ballots have already been returned. This is going to be a busy couple of weeks. PDiddie and the Press have more.