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So now what for Julian Castro?

Whatever he wants to do, which probably doesn’t include anything in 2018.

Julian Castro

Just a few short months ago, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro appeared to stand a decent chance of becoming the next vice president.

A few weeks ago, the San Antonio Democrat looked poised to assume another high-ranking executive role in a Hillary Clinton administration.

Now, as Democrats pick up the pieces from their nationwide losses on Election Day, Castro is preparing to be unemployed and seems destined to spend some time in the political wilderness.

But to friends, allies and Democratic strategists, Castro remains better positioned than most in his party to rebound from the setback of the 2016 election.

“Really and truly, the future for the Castro brothers is unlimited,” said Christian Archer, referring to Castro and his twin brother, Rep. Joaquín Castro, D-San Antonio. Archer was a close aide to Julián Castro during his time as mayor.

“There is so much pressure on these young men to answer the question what’s next,” Archer said. “They’re 42 years old. Julián could wait a decade before running for governor and still be a young guy running for governor.”

[…]

As veteran Texas Democratic operative Harold Cook surveys the fallout from the election, he argues few members of his party are better placed than Castro, who he notes was far enough removed from electoral politics in recent years to escape some of the blame that is going around for the Democrats’ demise.

“As Democrats go, he’s in pretty good shape,” Cook said. “This is a good time for him and a lot of people to bide their time and provide the loyal opposition, and maybe start some business interests and create some security for his family, and then wait for what opportunities arise, because no political party stays down forever.”

Unlike his brother, Secretary Castro has ruled out the possibility of challenging Sen. Ted Cruz in his 2018 re-election race. He hasn’t turned down the idea of running for governor, but many Democrats were disappointed Trump’s 9-point margin of victory in Texas wasn’t lower, which would have increased the odds of seeing more competitive statewide races.

“A-team people like Secretary Castro, obviously, everybody approaches them begging them to run,” Cook said. “But guys like him, their very first question is going to be, ‘Show me the numbers, show me the path to victory.’ And either professionals are going to be able to show that path or they’re not.”

Here’s what I wrote back in July when Castro was passed over as Hillary Clinton’s running mate. Rereading it now, I think it still holds true. I wish I could argue that running for Governor in 2018 made the most sense, but the best I can do is say that conditions in 2018 are going to be different than they were in 2010 and 2014. I hope Julian Castro chooses to do something that is more civic-minded than personally enriching, but he would be far from the first person to pick the latter option if he does so. I fully expect to see him run for something at some point, I just hope it’s sooner rather than later.

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