Ross Ramsey recently surveyed the 2018 electoral landscape.
Election numbers recently released by the Texas Legislative Council point to some soft spots in this red state’s political underbelly — places where Republicans hold office now but where Democrats at the top of the ticket have recently done well.
Specifically, they are the districts where Republicans won federal or state legislative races in 2016 while the same voters electing them were choosing Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump.
Trump won Texas, but not by as much as Republicans normally do.
The non-prediction here is that every single one of these officeholders might win re-election next time they’re on the ballot.
On the other hand, a political fishing guide, in this instance, would tell you that these are districts Democrats should examine if they’re trying to win seats in the congressional delegation or in the Texas Senate or House.
We covered some of this before, when the Senate district data came out. In that spirit, I’ve put together a list of all reasonably competitive State House districts, which follows below. Many of these will be familiar to you, but there are a few new ones in there. First, all districts by Presidential numbers:
Dist Clinton Trump Clint% Trump% Obama Romney Obama% Romney%
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134 50,043 35,983 54.7% 39.3% 34,731 46,926 41.7% 56.4%
102 30,291 24,768 52.3% 42.7% 24,958 29,198 45.3% 53.0%
114 35,259 29,221 52.1% 43.2% 28,182 35,795 43.5% 55.2%
105 25,087 20,979 52.1% 43.6% 20,710 23,228 46.5% 52.1%
115 30,897 26,158 51.5% 43.6% 23,353 29,861 43.2% 55.3%
108 39,584 34,622 50.3% 44.0% 27,031 40,564 39.3% 59.0%
113 27,532 26,468 49.1% 47.2% 23,893 27,098 46.3% 52.5%
112 26,735 26,081 48.3% 47.1% 22,308 28,221 43.5% 55.0%
138 24,706 24,670 47.6% 47.5% 18,256 27,489 39.3% 59.2%
136 37,324 35,348 46.7% 44.2% 26,423 35,296 41.2% 55.1%
135 28,233 29,486 46.6% 48.6% 21,732 32,078 39.8% 58.8%
047 48,658 48,838 46.5% 46.7% 34,440 50,843 39.3% 58.0%
065 28,774 30,078 46.1% 48.1% 22,334 31,456 40.8% 57.5%
066 33,412 35,728 45.5% 48.7% 24,895 40,639 37.4% 61.0%
026 31,636 35,022 45.5% 50.4% 22,554 39,595 35.9% 62.9%
132 31,489 34,495 45.4% 49.7% 21,214 31,432 39.8% 58.9%
052 32,184 33,185 45.3% 46.7% 23,849 30,763 42.4% 52.7%
045 34,468 38,038 44.2% 48.8% 26,757 35,298 41.8% 55.2%
067 33,461 37,741 43.9% 49.5% 24,866 40,763 37.2% 60.9%
054 23,624 27,379 43.6% 50.5% 21,909 25,343 45.7% 52.9%
043 22,716 27,549 43.6% 52.9% 22,554 25,017 46.9% 52.0%
121 33,956 40,371 42.7% 50.8% 27,422 44,391 37.5% 60.7%
126 26,483 32,607 42.7% 52.6% 21,191 35,828 36.7% 62.1%
097 29,525 36,339 42.1% 51.8% 25,869 39,603 38.9% 59.6%
They’re grouped into districts that Clinton carried, districts where Clinton was within five points, and districts where she was within ten. The Obama/Romney numbers are there to add a little context, and to show where the most movement was. Some of these are in places you may not expect. HD136 is in Williamson County, as is HD52. HD 65 is in Denton, with HDs 66 and 67 in Collin. HD97 is in Tarrant. Note that while there were some big swings towards Clinton, not all of these districts were more favorable to Dems in 2016, with HD43 (held by turnout Republican JM Lozano) being the clearest exception. And a few of these are little more than optical illusions caused by deep-seated Trump loathing among a subset of Republicans. HD121 is Joe Straus’ district. It’s not going to be in play for the Dems in 2018. I would suggest, however, that the weak showing for Trump in Straus’ district is a big part of the reason why Straus is less amenable to Dan Patrick’s arguments about things like the bathroom bill and vouchers than many other Republicans. There are a lot fewer Republicans from the Dan Patrick wing of the party in Joe Straus’ district.
And because I’ve repeatedly said that we can’t just look at Presidential numbers, here are the numbers from the two three-way Court of Criminal Appeals races, which I have used before as a shorthand of true partisan leanings:
Dist Burns Keasler Burns% Keasl% Hampton Keller Hampt% Keller%
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105 23,012 21,842 49.0% 46.5% 19,580 21,745 45.8% 50.8%
113 25,411 26,940 46.4% 49.2% 22,651 25,693 45.6% 51.7%
115 26,876 28,999 45.8% 49.4% 21,431 28,402 41.5% 55.0%
134 39,985 44,560 45.4% 50.6% 33,000 42,538 42.3% 54.5%
102 26,096 28,210 45.3% 49.1% 23,232 27,295 44.3% 52.1%
043 21,812 25,213 44.3% 51.2% 21,565 22,434 47.5% 49.4%
112 23,798 27,901 43.9% 51.4% 20,942 26,810 42.4% 54.3%
135 25,998 31,365 43.7% 52.8% 20,745 30,922 39.2% 58.4%
138 22,119 26,669 43.6% 52.6% 17,470 26,224 38.9% 58.4%
114 28,774 35,129 43.3% 52.8% 26,441 33,128 43.1% 53.9%
136 32,436 37,883 42.7% 49.9% 23,925 32,484 39.3% 53.3%
132 29,179 36,667 42.7% 53.6% 20,237 30,515 38.9% 58.6%
065 26,010 32,772 42.4% 53.4% 20,732 30,377 39.1% 57.3%
052 28,698 34,976 42.2% 51.4% 21,947 28,562 40.8% 53.1%
054 22,114 27,979 42.0% 53.1% 20,110 24,571 43.5% 53.2%
045 31,530 39,309 41.7% 52.0% 24,897 32,734 40.6% 53.3%
026 28,138 38,544 41.0% 56.2% 21,232 38,332 34.8% 62.8%
047 41,032 54,388 40.5% 53.7% 32,028 47,181 38.1% 56.1%
126 24,261 34,679 39.8% 56.8% 20,309 34,351 36.3% 61.3%
108 30,706 42,923 39.6% 55.4% 24,685 37,529 38.1% 57.9%
066 27,709 39,675 39.5% 56.6% 22,409 37,693 36.0% 60.6%
067 28,298 40,926 38.9% 56.7% 22,539 37,932 35.8% 60.3%
097 26,454 39,254 38.5% 57.2% 23,967 37,732 37.6% 59.2%
121 28,995 43,743 38.0% 57.3% 25,683 42,350 36.5% 62.0%
Clearly, this is a much less optimistic view of the situation than the first table. I am certain that some anti-Trump Republicans will be willing to consider voting against a Trump surrogate next year, but it’s way too early to say how many of these people there are, and we need to know what the baseline is in any event. Note that even in some of the less-competitive districts, there was a big swing towards the Dems, most notably in HD26 but also in HDs 115, 135, 138, and 66. It may be that some of these districts won’t be competitive till 2020, and it may be that some will need a real dampening of Republican enthusiasm to be on the board. But whatever the case, these are the districts where I would prioritize recruitment efforts and promises of logistical support.
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