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CBS/YouGov: Cruz 44, O’Rourke 36 (RVs)

Time for another poll.

Rep. Beto O’Rourke

In Texas’ Senate race, incumbent Republican Ted Cruz has a 10-point lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke among likely voters. Cruz benefits from strong support from his own party and has an advantage among independents as well. O’Rourke is supported by Democrats, leads with Hispanics and has an edge with women. Cruz performs well with whites and men.

Cruz also has an overall job approval rating of 54 percent in Texas among registered voters, a bit higher than President Trump’s (50 percent) in the state.

On the matter of separating families specifically, both Cruz and O’Rourke get net positive ratings (largely driven by support from their own parties), although three in 10 voters do not have an opinion about O’Rourke on this, as he may be less known to voters than Cruz.

Poll data is here. They also did Arizona and Florida’s Senate races, if those interest you. For the Texas Senate race (question 6), the result from the full 1,025-person sample of registered voters was 44-36 as indicated in the headline. It was in the smaller (821 respondents) “likely voter” group that Cruz was up 50-40. I’m skeptical of likely voter screens at this early point in time, and all of the other poll results I have on the sidebar are for RVs, so for comparison purposes that’s the one I’m going with. The average of the six polls I’m using (all but the WPA one from January 5) now has Cruz at 47.2, with 40.2 for O’Rourke.

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  1. Manny Barrera says:

    Too early for polls and they have no way of determining who likely voters will be this coming November.

    With Trump at the helm, it is like maggots guiding a ship, we could be in a recession because of the trade war and pulling out of NAFTA. The Stock Market could tank and all those old people with their 401s will be crying. Who they gonna blame, Republicans control the federal government. Even racists need to eat.

  2. Tom in Lazybrook says:

    So this poll implies that Beto will underperform Cruz on turnout, as Beto falls further behind when the poll moves from registered to likely voters? Thats what this poll appears to say. Interesting.

  3. Manny Barrera says:

    Let us see what happens in November, but here in Harris County it is looking like Blue Wave. One county at a time. Trump is not half the man that Obama is, only about a 1/12 of his intelligence.

  4. Manny Barrera says:

    New poll Cruz by 5 – 41 to 36 with 17% no opinion. That is actually very good for Beto as Cruz has much greater name ID.

    Lupe is 12 behind, same as Wendy, but I think she won’t do as bad and will come much closer than Wendy. I sent her some money as she needs to be able to work her base, everyone that is interested in turning Texas Blue needs to consider helping a State Wide candidate. Valdez is a good candidate, she got started late and that is not helping her. After thinking Valdez does not have as many handicaps as Wendy did, my opinion.

    Do I think she can win no, but she can help Beto and Houston Democrats.

  5. […] 31: Cruz 50, O'Rourke 39 PPP, June 8: Cruz 48, O'Rourke 42 GQR, June 16: Cruz 49, O'Rourke 43 CBS/YouGov, June 24: Cruz 44, O'Rourke […]