UH poll: Biden, Bernie tied

One more primary poll.

Texans are split between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders as their choice in the Democratic presidential primary, according to a University of Houston poll released Monday.

The poll, from the university’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, shows the two candidates in a statistical dead heat, with Biden slightly edging out Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters, 22.5% to 22.1%.

Among the rest of the field, 18.3% of likely voters supported Elizabeth Warren, 13.4% supported Michael Bloomberg, 11.9% supported Pete Buttigieg, 7.2% supported Amy Klobuchar, 3.5% supported Tulsi Gabbard, and 1.1% supported Tom Steyer.

But a split between moderate candidates could still leave Sanders with the most delegates. The poll predicts Sanders earning 85 delegates in Texas, compared to Biden taking 80. Following behind, Elizabeth Warren is expected to take 61, with Mike Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg winning one delegate each.

“It’s so early but Sanders is the front-runner now, and of course there’s a debate on Tuesday night. And I suspect all the contenders are going to go after him the way some of them went after Bloomberg in the last debate,” Hobby School executive director Jim Granato told Houston Matters host Craig Cohen on Monday.

Most important to those polled was picking a candidate who could beat Donald Trump in November’s general election. More than half of respondents said defeating Trump was their No. 1 priority, while a little less than a third said agreeing on the issues was most important. Just 11.1% found experience to be a major factor in their decision.

Here’s the Hobby School’s poll webpage, and here is the full report. I asked on Twitter if they did head-to-head matchups with Trump and was told No, but that they did ask voters if there were any Democratic candidates that they felt they could not support in November against Trump, and found that outside of Tulsi Gabbard, there were no significant differences among the contenders. The survey was fielded between February 6 and February 18 with 1,352 YouGov respondents, which is almost entirely before the Vegas debate that won Elizabeth Warren such plaudits, so it’s possible she has improved her standing since the questions were asked. We’ll have to wait and see on that. They did do a poll of the Senate primary, which should come out today. I’ll write that one up when I see it. In the meantime, the four recent Dem Presidential primary polls of Texas show Biden with a big lead over Bernie, with a small lead over Bernie, tied with Bernie, and slightly behind Bernie. You may now leap to your own conclusions about What It All Means. The Texas Signal has more.

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13 Responses to UH poll: Biden, Bernie tied

  1. Manny says:

    I don’t know about polls and who will win. As to Latinos most of the ones that I have spoken to lean towards Bloomberg since Castro dropped out, they are older and vote consistently. Sanders did do well with Latinos in Nevada but he did not bring out more Latinos then normal.

    I do know that one poll does not mean anything, as Nate Silvers states you need the average of a lot of polls to get an actual reading. If Biden carries South Carolina by a large percentage it will effect the votes here.

    The average as of the last poll Silvers has which was on the 20th.

    Sanders 25.7% Biden18.3% Bloomberg17.1% Warren13.6% Buttigieg9.2% Klobuchar6.9% Steyer2.2% Gabbard2.2%

  2. Robert Nagle says:

    Chuck, I am still waiting for MSNBC or CNN to interview you (seriously). Somehow they interview every pundit from Iowa, Nevada and NH, but the “less important” Super Tuesday states are all grouped together in one amorphous heap.

    We’ll see if Warren improves her lot in Texas (I’m surprised she hasn’t spent more time here). However it turns out, the Dem primary in Texas will be a real nail-biter…

  3. Bill Daniels says:

    Bernie has a fervent base for the exact same reason that Trump has a fervent base, disaffected people want to send a wrecking ball to D.C. and burn it down. Bernie’s going to be the top delegate getter, but won’t win outright, and the DNC won’t allow him to get the nomination no matter what, just like last time. The Bernie bros, fresh off of being told to ‘just go along to get along’ last time aren’t going to do that in 2020, and it’s going to be 1968 II at the convention. There won’t be any unifying angry Bernie bros. It’s their time, and they know it, and there have already been a plethora of campaign staff who specifically said they would riot if Bernie isn’t the candidate. I believe them. That’s the thing about true believers in anything. They truly believe. They can’t be bought, can’t be talked down.

  4. brad says:

    Love it. Both Trump and Bernie supporters are true believers. Unfortunately it is in lies.

    For Trump…everything he says.

    For Bernie its having any realistic financial math for his plans.

    Bill, you are right the Trumpkins do want to burn it down. I can hear them now: “Burn it all down!!!!” [hysterically shouted]. The problem is that they have no plans for actually governing and running an administration.

    Its easy to tear things down, but to build something takes planning and effort of which Trump has no skills.

  5. Bill Daniels says:


    I’m glad we agree about Bernie. Rare moment of agreement noted.

    As to Trump, the results belie your “Trump is incompetent” narrative. If Trump was incompetent and ineffectual, you folks wouldn’t be so apoplectic. The fact is, he’s steadily doing what he campaigned on doing. Remember “not one penny for the wall?” We’re up to about 120 miles so far, with hundreds in progress that have already gone to court and are like Public Enemy…..they can’t be stopped.

    The Muslim ban and keeping people out from shithole countries? First round of Muslim ban done, and another round of shithole countries just added to the ban list AND won in court. Again, can’t be stopped.

    Number of refugees admitted? Slashed to 18,000. Remain in Mexico? You don’t have to go home, but you can’t get in here. Trump is doing exactly what he said he would do. Virtually every week, you wake up to some new feigned atrocity, as Trump uses every technique possible to advance the agenda he ran on. What happened this week? Court challenge against refusing to let people in who will become public charges ruled FOR Trump. Boom! That’s a huge win to keep undesirables out.

    I could go on, but these aren’t the patterns of an easily distracted, incompetent simpleton, these are the strategic actions of a guy who made promises, and is working to keep them. At least give Trump the credit you give to Bernie. Both are dangerous to the establishment, even if for very different reasons.

  6. Manny says:

    Bill quit your persistent lying, Trump said Mexico was going to pay for the wall.

    Contrary to what you think about those countries great people have come from some of those Muslim Countries. Steve Jobs father was from Syria.

  7. Bill Daniels says:


    Mexico (and every country that can no longer get its people across the border illegally) IS paying. They are paying by not being able to export their poverty to the US anymore. Each person that doesn’t get in saves us, and costs them, including lost future remittances.

    Don’t believe me, take it from Jorge Ramos:


    “Mexico has effectively turned into an extension of Mr. Trump’s immigration police beyond American territory. And this is the case on multiple fronts: On the southern border with Guatemala, they prevent Central American migrants from coming into Mexico; on the northern one, they block those seeking entry to the United States from leaving. The decision of Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also known as AMLO, to follow this approach is misguided. He should let migrants continue their journey north.”

    “Everything changed because of Donald Trump. By mid-2019, a number of Central American caravans were traveling across Mexico. The president, comparing them to an invasion, warned Mexico that they should do something to stop them, and that he would slap tariffs on all Mexican imports if it didn’t.”

    “That’s why I am surprised by the indifference shown by so many Mexicans over the abuses of the National Guard and the vicious attacks on social media aimed at Central Americans. Those xenophobic comments remind me of those I have been hearing for decades here in the United States, and of the appalling mistreatment of Mexican immigrants in recent years. Such abuses should not be forgotten or used to justify a similar treatment of migrants in Mexico.”

    Even your boy Ramos knows he’s been beaten. Look at him. He’s now complaining about his own people, Mexicans, agreeing that stopping the illegals from Central America is good, not just for the US, but for Mexico as well. He’s watching his open borders dream die in real time.

    This is not because Trump is incompetent. Trump has not only been successful in curbing illegal immigration to the US, he’s gotten Mexicans to become pro-Mexico nationalists that WANT to stop the Central Americans from entering. AMLO understands that with a limited amount of money to go around, he can’t blow what little Mexico has taking care of a bunch of Central Americans…..cheaper to repel them at the Suchiate River, while reaping the benefits of the new USMCA.

  8. Manny says:

    Bill you will always be a racist and will be sent to hell where all people are from Mexico and Central America.

    You will also be a compulsive liar.


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  10. brad says:

    I am concerned that the Russians are doing exceedingly well with their misinformation campaign to disrupt/divide Americans.

    Just look at the Bill Daniel’s bot they’ve created.

    The only slip up on the bot was Bill Bot’s inadvertent angsty recognition of Trump’s incompetence.

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