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Counties of interest, part two: Around the Metroplex

Part 1 – Counties around Harris

Dallas and Tarrant Counties are two big squares right next to each other, so I’m combining them into one post.


County       Romney    Obama    Trump  Clinton    Trump    Biden    Shift
=========================================================================
Collin      196,888  101,415  201,014  140,624  250,194  227,868   73,147
Denton      157,579   80,978  170,603  110,890  221,829  188,023   42,795
Ellis        39,574   13,881   44,941   16,253   56,651   27,513   -3,445
Johnson      37,661   10,496   44,382   10,988   54,523   16,418  -10,940
Kaufman      24,846    9,472   29,587   10,278   37,474   18,290   -3,810
Parker       39,243    7,853   46,473    8,344   61,584   12,789  -17,405
Rockwall     27,113    8,120   28,451    9,655   38,842   18,149   -1,700
Wise         17,207    3,221   20,670    3,412   26,986    4,953   -8,047

Most of the attention goes to Collin and Denton counties, for good reason. Even as they stayed red this year, they have shifted tremendously in a blue direction. Basically, a whole lot of Dallas has spilled over the county lines, and the result is what you’d expect. There’s not a whole lot to say here – demography, time, and continued organizing should do the trick.

But once you get past those two counties, it’s a whole lot of red. The Republicans have netted more total votes since 2012 from the other six counties than the Dems have from Denton. Parker County, west of Tarrant, home of Weatherford, ninety percent white and over eighty percent Republican, more than twice as populous now as it was in 1990, is A Problem. Johnson County, south of Tarrant and with nearly identical demographics as Parker while also growing rapidly, is right behind it.

I don’t know that there’s much to be done about those two. There does appear to be more promise in Ellis (south of Dallas, home of Waxahachie), Kaufman (southeast of Dallas), and Rockwall counties. The first two are slightly less white than Parker and Johnson, and all three saw enough growth in Democratic voters in 2020 (at least at the Presidential level; we’ll need to check back on other races) to mostly offset the growth in Republican voting. It’s almost certainly the case that proximity to Dallas County is better for Democratic prospects than proximity to Tarrant. Again, that doesn’t address a big part of the problem, but it at least provides a place to start.

I don’t have a whole lot more to offer, so I’m interested in hearing what my readers from this part of the state have to say. I’ll be honest, I had not given any thought to the geography of this before I started writing these posts. Hell, in most cases I had to do some research to know which counties to look up. I hope that by doing so I’ve helped you think about this.

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17 Comments

  1. blank says:

    The center of mass of both population and Democratic strength is heading North, so Republicans are more likely to draw more districts like CDs 5, 6, and 12 than CDs 3, 24, 26, and 32. My State House 2020 reapportionment forecasts both Collin and Denton gaining half a district. Specifically:

    Collin goes from 4 + a partial district to 5 + a smaller partial district.
    Denton goes from 4 whole districts to 4 + a partial district.

    Rockwall’s population is really close to 10% of Collin’s population and growing at the same rate, so it will gain around 5% of a new district. Everywhere else, including Dallas and Tarrant, will have the same number or slightly smaller partial districts.

  2. SocraticGadfly says:

    Per Blank, the REAL fun is going to be redistricting state House seats in the truly rural areas. Due to outright population declines that are continuing in much of West Texas even with suburbs on the I-35 corridor (and selected exurbs) turning bits more non-Republican, GOP incumbents out west are going to be forced to run against each other, or else fight with marginal GOP suburban candidates (think Former Fetus Forever Fuckwad Stickland’s district) in and after redistricting.

  3. SocraticGadfly says:

    And, yes, I’ve blogged about the pending redistricting. https://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2019/09/should-drew-springer-be-in-trouble-well.html

  4. Bill Daniels says:

    What’s just as important as the voters is who is administering the election….and in Tarrant County, that’s Heider Garcia, who has extensive experience in voting systems…..in VENEZUELA, with Smartmatic, part of the Dominion voting systems that are the crux of Trump’s argument of massive counting fraud.

    Fresh from getting Hugo Chavez and Maduro ‘elected,’ heeeeere’s Heider to help Tarrant County with their election.

    https://archive.is/RDXZb

    Texas was smart enough to ban Dominion voting hardware from our state, but were lax in keeping out people like Heider.

  5. Ross says:

    Bill, you are an idiot. Heider left Venezuela in 2012, so had nothing to do with Maduro’s election. If anything, he, like many of my Venezuelan colleagues, left Venezuela to get away from the worsening situation.

    Your guy lost, get over it.

  6. Bill Daniels says:

    Ross,

    You are naive if you think that Chavez didn’t hand pick his successor Maduro. It follows that the ‘infrastructure’ to make that happen was already in place at the time of Hugo’s death in 2013.

    Let’s face it. You have to go all in on the supposition that none of Trump’s allegations, made in Rudy’s presser are true, because, if they are true, it’s horrific and indefensible. I guess we’ll see.

  7. Manny says:

    Bill the cheating here in Texas was done by the Republicans using the Karl Rove method. Cheat a little in each county so that it would seem not to make a difference. The Republicans added, I estimate, about 100-1000 votes in most if not all of Texas counties. I will assume that they did that throughout the United States.

    It wasn’t Russia that helped Trump, it was the power-hungry American haters, the Republicans.

  8. SocraticGadfly says:

    Bill Daniels is a fraud himself.

    And, the only thing “true” in Rudy’s presser was his bad hair dye.

    Dude, even TUCKER isn’t on board!

  9. voter_worker says:

    So Bill, get back to us after Georgia announces the results of the manual recount. It will either confirm or demolish Trump’s accusations regarding Dominion Voting Systems which is used statewide in Georgia. And while you’re at it, if Dominion flipped Georgia to Biden (it didn’t, but for argument’s sake), why didn’t it flip Louisiana and Alaska, too? Both of those states went for Trump and use Dominion statewide.

  10. C.L. says:

    crickets.

  11. Jules says:

    Georgia has been certified. For President-elect Biden.

  12. asmith says:

    Kuff,

    I think you’re right about Kaufman, Rockwall, and Ellis to a lesser extent. Kaufman and Ellis is where the new affordable housing is. Kinda the Hays county of Dallas area. Most of the move ins were young white families who either grew up in East Dallas suburbs, or East Texas but wanted to be close to jobs. Black and latino families are starting to move to these areas, changing the politics slightly.

    Rockwall is middle to upper middle class. Lake Ray Hubbard is a political demark, separating mainly blue Garland and purple Rowlett from Red Rockwall, but there’s a ton of college educated voters there. The local Dems are working hard but need help in Rockwall and Kaufman.

    I think Ellis is starting to be less red around Red Oak in the northern part near the county line. Waxahachie/Midlothian are still tough but the middle class growth is coming because of the proximity to logistics/distribution jobs. The TX Democratic Party cannot take the outer suburban counties in DFW for granted anymore and cede them over to the GOP.

  13. Bill Daniels says:

    Enjoy your pyrrhic victory, xirs. This election fraud will be laid out in court. Oh, and guess who is responsible for the circuit courts in question?

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/circuitassignments.aspx

    Spoiler alert:

    MI – Brett M. Kavanaugh
    WI – Amy Coney Barrett
    PA – Samuel A. Alito
    GA – Clarence Thomas

  14. Manny says:

    Bill, you are a very sick individual, mentally. I would suggest that you get rid of anything that could allow you to take your own life.

  15. blank says:

    In the counties around Tarrant, Parker has some nicer upper-middle income college educated suburbs, which feel more like White Settlements in West Fort Worth. By contrast, Johnson is much more rural with standard I-35 fast-food/gas station development. To my knowledge, there is very little Democratic activity in either area.

  16. Ross says:

    Bill, If the justices you list overturn the election results, I would be all in favor of them being impeached and removed from office. I doubt they will do that, and the unprincipled piece of shit scumbag whose ass you worship will be carried screaming out of the White House on January 20th by the same Secret Service agents who have been protecting his sorry backside, and dumped unceremoniously on the sidewalk outside, to be met by a crowd screaming “loser, loser, loser”, followed closely by Federal agents walking up to him saying “You have the right to remain silent…”

  17. […] acceleration has declined. It’s comfort of the coldest kind. The same is very much true for Parker and Johnson counties, and for counties we have not yet discussed, like Comal and Medina and Ector and […]

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