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How risk averse are they?

Greg comments on this story from the weekend which assessed the odds of a primary challenge to State Sen. Jon Lindsay (a prospect which makes my fellow toll-road critic Anne Linehan positively giddy). I’m sure almost any one of the State Reps mentioned could give Lindsay a good fight if they wanted to, but I think there’s an angle here that’s been overlooked. Every single rep mentioned, with the exception of Moldy Joe Nixon, is in an extremely safe district. Are they willing to give up that kind of security for a 50-50 shot at a better job? Note that in this case, any of them with covetousness in their political hearts would be better off jumping in now with the stated intent of taking out Lindsay, since if they did they’d probably scare off anyone else and wind up in a two-person race with those even odds of winning. Instead, if they wait it out they run the risk of Lindsay deciding to call it a career, which would open the floodgates to multiple challengers and thus reduce their overall odds of winning. So who among that crowd is the least risk averse?

That in turn is a compelling argument for Nixon to switch races now and be the one who chases off the others, since the hold he has on his State Rep seat is a bit shaky to begin with, and that’s before the HCDP and TDP put the target on his back as they surely will next year. He may be an underdog in any primary for SD7, but it can’t be much worse than his chances of staying put are, and the prize is not only more power but a safe seat again. Frankly, I can’t think of a good reason for Nixon not to go for it, and the sooner the better for him.

As to the other possibilities Greg mentions, two thoughts: One is that the idea of nutball former CD10 candidate Ben Streusand spending more of his millions on this seat is almost enough to make me cancel my cable now, before there’s even the slightest chance I’ll hear his godawful nasal twang on the tube again. Two, regarding City Council member Mark Ellis, this is the one place where Jared Woodfill could extract a pound or two of flesh for Ellis’ refusal to aggressively oppose Mayor Bill White. I’m sure Steve Radack’s endorsement will carry weight as Greg says, but I can already see the anti-Ellis attack mailers that will bubble up from the swamps if he sets his sights on SD7. Sometimes karma really will run over your dogma, you know?

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One Comment

  1. Red Dog says:

    The Red Dog sees this as a good chance to see exactly where the GOP will go: with popular moderates like KBH and Ellis (who by all accounts is a moderate conservative, as opposed to a conservative nutball Addie “Tire Iron” Wiseman) or with right wing nuts like Perry and the Steusand/Nixon. For a Dems point of view, I see the “sold out” crowd of Nixon and Perry would be much easier to expose and paint. If Republicans keep going right, there may finally enough distance between them and the mainstream to start winning elections. However, if the right gets more voters out, then we all loose with nutballs running the government. Hopefully, good government wins no matter what.