The initial (uninformed) trial heat in the HD 134 race currently shows Cohen leading by a 57% – 30% margin and holding a substantial lead among every demographic group. Various tests demonstrate that Cohen is unscathed by the traditional Republican wedge issue attacks at the same time that she is clearly in tune with the voters of her district on important issues like insurance reform, taxes and education.
Ellen Cohen is remarkably well-known for an urban State Representative. Her very positive image and job ratings are virtually unchanged from those recorded in March and her “re-elect” margin stands at 52% to 21% – very strong numbers in a down-ballot race. Republican Sarah Davis’ image ratings have barely crept up in the past six months, with only 10% offering a Favorable rating while 72% have never heard of her.
As before, I don’t have any further data on this poll, so I cannot offer a critique of its methodology, sample, or assumptions. Nobody releases poll results when they look bad, so polls of this kind are always positive in nature. For what it’s worth, this is consistent with my own anecdotal observations from driving through the district nearly every day. I see plenty of Cohen signs, and only a handful of Davis signs. There’s no issue on which Cohen is obviously vulnerable. Cohen continues to do well in fundraising – the accompanying press release says she’ll report $235K on hand for the 30-days-out deadline, which is about what she had in July. I suppose anything could happen, but this race isn’t high up on my list of Things I’m Worried About.