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Beatty’s memo

From the Trib:

Texas Democrats are being told they have their “greatest opportunities in a generation” this November with Donald Trump as the Republican presidential nominee and majorities of voters viewing corruption as a major problem in state government.

Austin-based Democratic pollster Leland Beatty argues, in a memo obtained by The Texas Tribune, that several factors, including an anticipated drop in GOP straight-ticket voting, could provide beleaguered state Democrats their biggest opening in 20 years. His predictions come as Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton continues to trounce Trump in all national and most battleground state polling, raising questions about his strength even in some reliably red states.

In Texas, 20 state House districts may be in play out of 39 where there is a GOP incumbent and a Democratic challenger on the ballot, Beatty wrote. In all 39 districts, a majority of those expected to vote — ranging from 52 percent to 72 percent — see corruption as widespread in Texas government, according to Beatty’s projections.


One caveat to Beatty’s analysis involves money. In the 20 House races that could be competitive, he said the Democratic candidates “do not appear financially ready to compete,” with 13 having reported less than $5,000 in the bank as of June 30.

See here for a copy of the memo, and here for the poll conducted last month. I’ve chatted with Beatty a bit since that ran, and he mentioned some of this stuff to me during our conversations. I don’t know which House races he has in mind specifically, but as it happens I’ve got a post in the works that speculates in that general direction, and I strongly suspect I’ve hit on many if not all of the districts he has in mind. Look for that post tomorrow.

As for the money issue, I’ll just say this: Both Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine have been saying some suggestive things about competing in Texas. No one really believes that, but there’s no reason why they couldn’t direct a few donors to put some bucks into downballot Texas races, or just towards general GOTV/turnout efforts. It wouldn’t take much to have an effect, and it would be a decent investment in loyalty, if nothing else. Or you know, if you’re one of those people that likes Democrats and has some money burning a hole in your pocket, you could pick a few of these races to get involved in. Nothing like investing locally, right? At some point, that’s what we’re going to have to do regardless of what else is happening.

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One Comment

  1. Trowaman says:

    Already looking forward to tomorrow’s post.

    Besides the obvious take backs from 2014 and Specials (117, 118, and 144), I got 107 prepped to flip.

    Everything else will be wave dependent. I’ve heard 134, the 112-115 Dallas batch could have some surprises. Maybe 26, 43, and 105? Candidates in 54 and 47 don’t seem fully prepped for what’s coming.

    I’m not sure what else to even look at.