A couple of tweets to get us started:
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1.3 million (25%) ofTX early voters so far did not vote in 2016. #txlege— Keir Murray (@houtopia) 2:40 PM – 21 October 2020
I talked about the likely percentage of people with no voting history in yesterday’s roundup. These folks include some number who did vote in 2018, and among them will be those who turned 18, or became citizens, or had moved to Texas in the interim. It will also include a lot of these brand-new voters. It seems likely this cohort will tend to favor the Democrats, though we can’t know just yet how that will shake out.
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855,175 registered voters in Travis County.
341,511 of them have voted, as of 10/21/2020.That’s 39.93% in early/mail-in voting alone.
8 days left to Early Vote, y’all.
#VoteEarly #GOTV
— Susan Shelton (@sccs) 1:34 PM – 22 October 2020
For the record, there were 732,037 registered voters in Travis County in 2016, and 477,588 of them voted, giving 65.8% of their vote to Hillary Clinton. Seems likely they’ll do a lot better this year. The Statesman had a story about the early vote in Travis County so far, but I thought Susan’s tweet was more on point.
Anyway. The Day Ten daily EV totals are here. You can find the daily totals for 2008 and 2012 (and 2016 as well, but I’ve got a separate link for it) here, for 2016 here, and for 2018 here. I’m just going to keep on keeping on with the pretense that early voting actually began this Monday, except with 628K votes already in the bank. The “original” Day Four numbers are here.
Election Mail Early Total
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2008 37,381 170,629 208,010
2012 50,790 201,962 252,752
2016 73,043 293,440 366,483
2018 59,332 249,383 308,715
2020 136,851 260,831 396,682
The in person early vote total declined again, though it would still be enough by itself to maintain the pace needed to match 2016’s final turnout during the EV period. Despite that, the overall total from Thursday actually exceeded Wednesday because of a huge number of returned mail ballots. Here’s the daily breakdown so you can see what I mean:
Vote type Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Total
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Mail 17,106 12,216 10,097 21,928 136,851
Drive-thru 6,347 7,578 6,834 5,145 80,009
In person 67,679 62,173 55,557 49,698 734,206
Total 91,132 81,967 72,488 76,771 951,066
We are now at 96.5% of 2016’s early vote (plus mail ballot) turnout of 985,571. I think we can safely assume we will pass that today. We are also now at 71.0% of 2016 total turnout. We passed 2012’s early vote total (777,067) and 2008’s early vote total (746,025) on Wednesday. We could reach their final turnout totals (1,188,731 for 2008, 1,204,167 for 2012) early next week. Total early vote turnout from 2018 was 867,871, and we passed that Wednesday. Total 2018 turnout was 1,219,871, so we could pass it along with 2008 and 2012 on the same day. With eight days to go, we will need to average 48,479 votes per day to reach 1,338,898 total votes. The mail ballots returned has already exceeded the 101,594 from 2016, and there’s 110,583 ballots still out there. (Though some people who got mail ballots have been voting in person and turning the mail ballots back in. I’ll have more on that over the weekend.)
Here’s your Derek Ryan email.
We’ve reached the halfway point of the early voting period and over one-third of registered voters in Texas have voted (5,887,488 people).
Those in the political world who know me know that I have an obsession with Loving County. Loving County has 111 registered voters and 29 of those people have voted early (6.9% have no previous election history in the last eight years). For reference, 876,887 people have voted in Harris County.
The full report is here. Gotta say, twelve million seems doable. Crazy, isn’t it?