Burnt Orange, Greg Wythe, and George Strong all have some Election Day predictions. I’m not going to go there, for the simple reason that it’s never a good idea to bet with your heart and not your head. Anything I wrote down here would be a reflection of what I’m hoping for, not what I really and objectively think will happen. Since you already more or less know what I want to happen, I won’t bother repeating myself.
That said, there are a few things that I’ll go out on a limb for:
1. The race that I think will surprise everyone is CD07. I’m not saying that John Martinez is going to win, or even come particularly close, because he won’t. What I do think, though, is that he’ll outperform the Democratic index of the district, which is 30% according to the Populations and Elections report for PlanC01374 (go here, click on PlanC01374, then click the Population and Elections button to see the report in PDF format). I’m basing this on the large number of Martinez signs that I see in the parts of CD07 I tend to frequent, which is to say Montrose and the Rice/Medical Center areas. For a candidate with no funds, no media coverage, and no name recognition, there are a lot of signs touting his campaign. I think the people in this part of the district, who used to be in CD18 and CD25, will vote heavily for him, and that by doing so, he’ll get somewhere between 35 and 40% of the total vote. This is as much wishful thinking as anything else I could write here, since I want very much for a good result by Martinez to spur a bigger and better candidate into challenging John Culberson in 2006, but I’ll go on the record with it anyway.
2. I believe at least one Harris County Democrat will win a countywide race. I’m not sure who it will be – maybe Reggie McKamie, maybe Kathy Stone, maybe Bruce Mosier – but I think at least one of them will. This will hopefully prod more Democrats to challenge Republican judicial incumbents in 2006.
3. Travis County will go for Kerry by a wide margin, something like 57-42. (In 2000, Gore+Nader was about 52%, with Bush getting just under 47%.) I believe there will be no more than a four point difference between Bush and Kerry in all three of Harris, Dallas, and Bexar Counties, and I believe Kerry will carry at least one of them by a smidgen. (This is not such a big stretch. The 2000 totals: In Bexar, Bush 52.24%, Gore+Nader 47.23%; in Dallas, Bush 52.58%, Gore+Nader 46.80%; in Harris, Bush 54.28%, Gore+Nader 45.25%.) I believe Kerry will get at least 42% of the vote statewide (2000 total: Bush 59.39%, Gore+Nader 40.13%).
Feel free to make whatever predictions you want to make here.