Tag Archives: Barack Obama

CD31 poll: Carter 43, Imam 37

Posted on September 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Another interesting Congressional race poll. With less than two months to go until Election Day, an increasing number of eyes are looking toward Texas, where Republicans are fighting to keep their grip on the once-reliably conservative state. There is perhaps … Continue reading →

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A very simple projection of the November vote

Posted on August 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In my earlier post about the current state of voter registrations, I noted that you could see the county-by-county totals in the contest details for the Senate runoff. What that also means is that if you have current (till now, … Continue reading →

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The Kamala effect

Posted on August 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I assume you are all aware that California Sen. Kamala Harris is now the Democratic nominee for Vice President. I didn’t post about that on Wednesday because it was hardly news by the time I published, but there are things … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 27 Comments

Abandon ship!

Posted on July 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

LOL. During Troy Nehls’ recent bid for the Republican nomination in one of Texas’ battleground congressional districts, the Fort Bend County sheriff prominently displayed his support for President Trump across his campaign website. “In Congress, I will stand with President … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just another poll showing Joe Biden in the lead in Texas, though you have to scroll way down in the Quinnipiac press release to get to that. With Texas as one of the biggest hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic, … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 49, Biden 44

Posted on April 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Our first post-primary poll. Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden by five points in Texas if the presidential race were held now, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. In a Trump-Biden contest, Democratic and Republican voters overwhelmingly … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Two out of three polls say Bernie is moving up

Posted on February 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is Bernie Sanders’ best poll result in Texas so far. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders has doubled his support among Democratic voters in Texas and now leads the race for that party’s presidential nomination in Texas, according to the latest … Continue reading →

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Once again with GOP anxiety

Posted on August 17, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I recommend Xanax. Or, you know, marijuana. I’ve heard that’s good for anxiety. Republicans have long idealized Texas as a deep-red frontier state, home to rural conservatives who love President Donald Trump. But political turbulence in the sprawling suburbs and … Continue reading →

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You want to be President, you’ve got to come to Houston

Posted on July 7, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

And so they are. No Democratic candidate for president has won Texas in over 40 years, and yet the flow of Democratic contenders coming through the state, and Houston specifically, has been unusually strong in 2019. Just since March, 14 … Continue reading →

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Checking in on the national political atmosphere

Posted on June 13, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox, via G. Elliott Morris’ weekly email blast: Are Democrats doing as well as they were in 2017-2018? The plural of “anecdote” is not “data”, but that’s what special elections and the generic ballot are for. These numbers … Continue reading →

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Still ridiculously early poll: Biden leads Trump by four

Posted on June 7, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Encouraging, but the usual caveats apply. President Donald Trump is locked in too-close-to-call races with any one of seven top Democratic challengers in the 2020 presidential race in Texas, where former Vice President Joseph Biden has 48 percent to President … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2018 State Senate

Posted on March 18, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The day I look forward to since November has finally arrived – all the data from the last election is now available on the Texas Legislative Council webpage. You know what that means: It’s statewide precinct analysis time! Let’s start … Continue reading →

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Ridiculously early Quinnipiac poll: Trump has a small lead

Posted on March 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Consider this to be for entertainment purposes only. In a very early look at possible 2020 presidential matchups in Texas, President Donald Trump is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders or former U.S. Rep. … Continue reading →

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Anti-Obamacare ruling appealed

Posted on January 6, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The big non-Mueller story to follow for 2019. The Democratic coalition of states battling Texas over the fate of the Affordable Care Act has formally begun the process of challenging a Dec. 14 decision ruling the law unconstitutional in its … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Beto in the city

Posted on December 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Last week I got an email from Christopher Busby, who is a regular commenter here. He had previously asked about doing an analysis of Beto O’Rourke’s performance in Houston by City Council district. I told him that the canvass data … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Precinct analysis: The two key CDs

Posted on November 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I want to break out of my usual precinct analysis posts to focus on the two big Congressional districts that were held by Republicans going into this election and are entirely within Harris County, CD02 and CD07. CD07 Candidate Votes … Continue reading →

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The Fort Bend blue wave

Posted on November 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s not forget that what happened in Harris County happened in Fort Bend, too. Across the state, the “blue wave” that had long been a dream of the Democratic Party faithful failed to materialize in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with Republicans … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

Endorsement watch: Nine from Obama

Posted on October 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t know what the practical effect of this is, but I’m happy for the attention. Former President Barack Obama has backed nine more Democratic candidates in Texas as part of his second round of midterm endorsements. The nine candidates … Continue reading →

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The hearing for the lawsuit to kill Obamacare

Posted on September 7, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here we go again. At the hearing Wednesday, Texas aimed to convince U.S. District Judge Reed O’Connor to block the law across the country as it continues to fight a months- or years-long legal case that could land before the … Continue reading →

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DACA lives another day

Posted on September 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

But don’t relax just yet. A federal district judge on Friday denied the state of Texas’ request that the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program be put on hold after Texas and nine other states sued to halt the Obama-era … Continue reading →

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The DACA hearing

Posted on August 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t know about this. The state of Texas will continue to incur irreparable financial harm if an Obama-era immigration program isn’t halted immediately, attorneys for the state argued in Houston on Wednesday. But lawyers representing nearly two dozen recipients … Continue reading →

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One federal court orders DACA restored

Posted on August 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

But hold on, because there’s another ruling to come. A federal judge on Friday upheld his previous order to revive an Obama-era program that shields some 700,000 young immigrants from deportation, saying that the Trump administration had failed to justify … Continue reading →

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Business groups file brief opposing Paxton’s anti-DACA lawsuit

Posted on July 24, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is good. A federal lawsuit by Texas officials earlier this year seeking to order the end of the federal immigration program called the Deferred Act for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, will have “immediate, irreparable injury” to Texas businesses and … Continue reading →

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Greg Abbott, Russian stooge

Posted on May 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Heck of a job, Greggie. A former director of the CIA and NSA said Wednesday that hysteria in Texas over a 2015 U.S. military training exercise called Jade Helm was fueled by Russians wanting to dominate “the information space,” and … Continue reading →

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Paxton sues to end DACA

Posted on May 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This guy, I swear. Following through on a months-old promise, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit Tuesday to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, leading a seven-state coalition against an Obama-era immigration measure that protects hundreds … Continue reading →

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Some people sound very threatened by that Quinnipiac Texas Senate poll

Posted on April 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is almost funny. In its first-ever Texas poll, Quinnipiac University deemed the Senate race “too close to call” in reporting that 47 percent of Texas voters surveyed back Cruz and 44 percent support O’Rourke, an El Paso congressman. The … Continue reading →

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Are Texas Republicans really worried about Trump for November?

Posted on April 18, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I mean, I guess they are. They’ve seen what has happened around the country, in other elections and other red places. I don’t know how worried they are, or how worried they should be. This is a Red State where … Continue reading →

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No observers for ADA violations

Posted on March 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is interesting. Only days before a crucial state primary, the Justice Department has halted its effort to send observers during the election to assess whether Harris County polling sites are accessible to disabled voters. The observer request was made … Continue reading →

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Abbott v Davis

Posted on November 14, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

It’s getting real out there. In what promises to deepen divisions in the Texas Republican Party, Gov. Greg Abbott on Monday endorsed a GOP challenger to incumbent state Rep. Sarah Davis of Houston. Abbott gave his public thumbs-up to Susanna … Continue reading →

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UT/TT poll: We need more context

Posted on October 24, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Time for another UT/Texas Trib poll, in which the pollsters do a mighty fine job of failing to find anything interesting about their data. Donald Trump remains highly popular with Texas Republicans nearly a year after his election as the … Continue reading →

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Charity Navigator on your best bets for Harvey relief

Posted on September 9, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

In case you’re still making up your mind about how to donate to Harvey relief. Hurricane Harvey made landfall on Friday evening, August 25th, as the first Category 4 hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Charley in 2004. … Continue reading →

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The rural/suburban tradeoff

Posted on August 10, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Martin Longman returns to a point he has been making about the way the vote shifted in the 2016 election. Let’s try to be clear about what we mean. Hillary Clinton won a lot of votes in the suburbs from … Continue reading →

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Trump DOJ says all is swell with voter ID now

Posted on July 7, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Of course they do. Texas’ new voter identification law fully absolves the state from discriminating against minority voters in 2011, and courts should not take further action in a battle over the state’s old voter ID law, President Donald Trump’s … Continue reading →

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Paxton goes after DACA

Posted on July 1, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

I have no words. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and officials from nine other states on Thursday urged the Trump administration to end an Obama-era program that’s allowed hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants to live and work in the … Continue reading →

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