Another day, another poll showing that Texas is up for grabs despite President Donald Trump’s bluster.
Former vice president Joe Biden leads 47-45, with only one in 20 voters still undecided, in a Morning Consult poll released Monday night.
A raft of recent polls have found a dead heat, with the candidates within a point or two, and Trump returns to Texas on Thursday for the 16th visit of his presidency – an investment of time that would be out of proportion if Texas were as safely in his column as he professes.
In Odessa, he’ll meet with campaign donors before heading to Midland to inspect an oil rig at Double Eagle Energy and give a speech about energy policy.
Biden started running ads in Texas about two weeks ago, a one-minute spot urging Texans to wear masks and noting that “people are frightened” as the COVID-19 pandemic rages.
At the time, the Trump campaign called the outreach to Texas a “pipe dream.”
Trump’s last visit to Texas was only last month: a June 11 campaign-style event on police and race relations at a North Dallas church.
His 9-point margin over Hillary Clinton in Texas 2016 was the worst showing by a GOP nominee for president since 1976, when President Gerald Ford lost Texas and Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter ousted him from the White House.
Anyone want to place a bet on how many people are wearing masks at those Odessa and Midland events? More info on that Morning Consult poll, which covered numerous states, is here. I don’t see any crosstabs, so I can’t tell you much more about it. FiveThirtyEight rates them as B/C, so maybe not gold standard. It was a “likely voter” sample, so we’ve probably crossed that boundary now. In fourteen polls, Trump leads Biden by the skinny margin of 45.8 to 45.3, and if we limit ourselves to the ten polls since June 1, it’s a 45.9 to 45.6 lead for Biden. Have fun in Odessa, Donald!