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UT/TT primary poll: Hillary leads the Dems, Trump and Cruz lead the GOP

For those who care about this sort of thing.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and businessman Donald Trump are in a dead heat for the Republican presidential nomination in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

With four months to go before the March 1 primary, each had the support of 27 percent of likely Republican voters. Surgeon Ben Carson and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida were well back of the leaders at 13 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the first choice of 61 percent of Texas Democrats, building on her earlier support in the state and remaining well ahead of her rivals, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. Sanders, running second, has been unable to change the fundamental dynamics of a primary where Clinton has the political advantage, as Barack Obama did in 2008.

“I just don’t see any signs of weakness,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

[…]

The numbers have shifted some since the previous UT/TT survey in June — a poll conducted when a number of official and unofficial exploratory campaigns were still underway.

Clinton led the Democratic field in the June UT/TT Poll with 53 percent support. Sanders’ numbers increased in the current poll, too, in part because two prospective candidates included in that survey — Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts — decided not to run.

The two leading Republican candidates in the latest survey — especially Trump — scooped up support that in June was going to two candidates who have since left the race: former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Cruz had 20 percent in that June poll; Trump was back in the dust at 2 percent.

“The summer of Trump had not started when we did the last poll,” Henson said. “He was not really in the race.”

The poll summary is here. Take it for whatever you think it’s worth. I’ve ragged on this poll many times – they wound up being pretty accurate last November, but they sucked rocks in the March primary. I think their Dem sample is likely to be reasonably on target, though there’s still some time for Bernie Sanders to move the needle with his in-state campaign. The GOP side, I have to believe that will continue to be volatile and unpredictable. Who knows if Trump and/or Carson will even still be in the race by the time the primary happens? I suppose for that reason it made no sense to try out any potential November matchups, but it still would have been fun to see Hillary/Trump and Sanders/Carson and whatever else you might want to try. For entertainment purposes only, of course, but it would be entertaining.

Texas Pulse Poll

Hey look! Someone polled Texas.

A statewide poll of Texas likely voters finds that immigration and the economy are the top issues of concern for residents of the Lone Star State. The poll also found that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton lead the Republican and Democratic primaries. Barack Obama is viewed unfavorably by a majority of Texans. Gov. Greg Abbott is seen favorably, and Sen. Ted Cruz has a more mixed favorability rating.

The Texas Pulse, a periodic survey of Texans’ opinions on a variety of cultural, economic and political issues, was conducted by Crosswind Media & Public Relations from Sep. 11-14, using a survey of 1,000 Texans. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. A 2014 Texas Pulse survey was recognized by the Houston Chronicle as the most accurate poll in the governor’s race.

In a survey of 452 likely Democratic voters, Clinton leads Democrat Bernie Sanders 53 percent to 21 percent, with Sen. Joe Biden, who has not announced for president, in third with 14 percent in a hypothetical matchup.

“Despite some challenges, the Clinton name is still gold among Texas Democrats,” said Thomas Graham, Crosswind president and CEO. “Hillary’s support remains solid, particularly among minorities and women. While Sanders fares well among white and younger voters relative to his overall numbers, Hillary Clinton still beats him 2-1 in even these categories.”

Clinton even beats Sanders 52 percent to 31 percent among voters identifying themselves as liberal. The former secretary of state does best among African-Americans, with almost two thirds (65%) supporting her. Sanders’ only lead in any category is among voters identifying their ethnicity as “other.” This is a relatively small sample, however.

On the Republican side, as Crosswind announced last week, Donald Trump leads the field with 26 percent, followed by Ben Carson at 19 percent. Texas’ own Senator Ted Cruz is third with 15 percent, and Jeb Bush is fourth with 9 percent.

You can go here to add yourself to their mailing list enter your information to see the full poll information. Honestly, it doesn’t have that much – you will be shocked to know that Republicans like Greg Abbott and Ted Cruz but hate President Obama and Obamacare, while Democrats love the President and Obamacare but can’t stand Abbott or Cruz. There’s a bit more nuance than that, so go get yourself the full poll if you want to know the full details plus some other things. On the GOP primary side, that link above in this paragraph has a pie chart of the full field. Pre-dropout Rick Perry got 3% and Scott Walker got 2%, while pre-CNN debate Carly Fiorina was at 3%. Such are the perils of waiting to release poll data. I would have loved to have seen some potential November matchups, but no dice. There’s also some issues polling – Republicans continue to be obsessed with immigration and “border security” (a full 50% had it as their top issue), while Dems are interested in a broader range of things. The press release linked at the top has some of those numbers, though oddly they disagree with what’s on the full poll page – the release says “Among Republicans, the economy is second (18%) and taxes and spending third (15%)”, but the chart on the poll page shows “economy and jobs” at 15% and “taxes and spending” at 11%. Go figure.

Anyway, much of this is for entertainment value only at this stage. You can be sure it will be different in February, even if neither field is much smaller. The Texas Lyceum will be releasing the results of its 2015 Issues and Elections poll next Wednesday the 30th, so we’ll see how these two compare.