Introduction
Congressional districts
State Rep districts
Commissioners Court/JP precincts
Comparing 2012 and 2016
Statewide judicial
Other jurisdictions
Appellate courts, Part 1
Appellate courts, Part 2
Judicial averages
Other cities
District Attorney
County Attorney
Sheriff
Tax Assessor
County Clerk
HCDE
Fort Bend, part 1
Fort Bend, part 2
Fort Bend, part 3
Brazoria County
Harris County State Senate comparisons
State Senate districts 2020
State Senate district comparisons
State House districts 2020, part 1
State House districts 2020, part 2
Median districts
State House district changes by demography
State House district changes by county
Hey, guess what? The 2020 election data is finally on the Texas Redistricting page for Congress and the State Board of Education. It had been there for awhile for the State House and State Senate, which is why I was able to do those most recent Precinct Analysis piece. Now I can fill in the missing pieces, and I will start here with the State Board of Education, which has a current composition of nine Republicans and six Democrats following the Dem flip in SBOE5. Here’s what the 2020 results looked like for these districts:
Dist Biden Trump Biden% Trump%
=====================================
01 288,864 245,645 53.3% 45.3%
02 259,587 281,363 47.4% 51.4%
03 361,827 238,999 59.4% 39.2%
04 388,518 117,290 75.9% 22.9%
05 554,766 475,249 52.9% 45.3%
06 391,913 371,101 50.6% 47.9%
07 351,218 509,642 40.2% 58.4%
08 307,826 526,425 36.3% 62.2%
09 196,720 577,419 25.1% 73.7%
10 440,594 445,355 48.7% 49.3%
11 383,185 472,594 44.1% 54.3%
12 469,730 429,676 51.3% 47.0%
13 401,190 128,910 74.7% 24.0%
14 310,738 570,422 34.7% 63.7%
15 150,843 498,932 22.9% 75.6%
Before we dive into the numbers, you’re probably wondering where these districts are. I know I don’t have a mental map of the SBOE like I do for the legislative districts. Here is the SBOE statewide map, and the District Viewer, which you can zoom in on to the street level. That will be your best friend for when the new maps are coming out.
So the numbers. As you can see, Joe Biden carried seven of the fifteen districts, falling just short in district 10 for a majority but carrying Republican-held districts 6 and 12. The bad news is that he did not carry district 2, which is a Democratic district held by Ruben Cortez, who was not on the ballot after winning re-election in 2018 by seven points. District 2 has been purple through the decade but it was on the blue side of purple before 2020. Beto carried SBOE2 in 2018, but only by 4.5 points; Greg Abbott won it by a wider margin, with Glenn Hegar and George P Bush also carrying it. Based on this I think Cortez would have held it had it been on the ballot last year, but I feel confident they’ll make a stronger push for it next year.
Here’s my look at the 2018 results for these districts, for which Beto won nine districts, carrying SBOE2 and 10 where Biden fell short. As you know, District 5 has been on my radar since 2016 when Hillary Clinton carried it, and it came through as I expected. District 10 was the longest-shot of the potential takeovers, with districts 12 and 6 being in between. If we went into the 2022 elections with the same districts, I’d feel like Democratic SBOE candidates would win between five and seven districts (remember, everyone is on the ballot in the first post-redistricting year), with 2 and 12 being the main variables. I see 6 and 10 as tougher nuts to crack, with 10 having more Republican turf in it, and 6 starting from a redder place and thus just taking longer to get where I think it would be going.
Obviously, all of this will be affected by redistricting, and not only is there a greater degree of freedom for the GOP given the small number of districts, there’s been little to no attention paid to SBOE districts. The SBOE map was never part of any voting rights litigation in the 2011 cycle. I have no idea how much attention it will get this time, but as SBOE5 was one of the few Democratic pickups from 2020, I have to think that people will care a little more about it, on both sides.
As we know, Biden tended to run ahead of the rest of the Democratic ticket. It’s pretty straightforward here, in that the rest of the ticket carried five districts, with everyone winning SBOE5 but falling short in 2, 6, 10, and 12. Consistent with what we have seen in the House and Senate districts, Biden’s number in SBOE2 was about the same as everyone else’s, which you can interpret optimistically (it didn’t get any worse!) or pessimistically (Republicans overall improved, it wasn’t just Trump!) as you see fit.
For comparison, here are the numbers from 2016 and 2012:
Dist Clinton TrumpClinton% Trump%
=====================================
01 255,909 169,214 57.4% 37.9%
02 234,172 204,262 51.4% 44.9%
03 282,715 163,940 60.2% 34.9%
04 333,156 76,478 78.7% 18.1%
05 377,928 376,417 47.0% 46.8%
06 286,931 301,142 46.3% 48.6%
07 255,474 407,386 37.1% 59.2%
08 205,760 416,239 31.5% 63.7%
09 148,687 486,392 22.7% 74.1%
10 287,936 346,670 42.5% 51.2%
11 257,515 397,155 37.3% 57.6%
12 315,973 356,576 44.4% 50.1%
13 324,952 102,622 73.5% 23.2%
14 195,965 453,354 28.8% 66.5%
15 114,553 426,441 20.3% 75.5%
Dist Obama Romney Obama% Romney%
=====================================
01 213,132 161,807 56.1% 42.6%
02 209,020 187,147 52.1% 46.7%
03 247,020 149,659 61.4% 37.2%
04 311,236 84,036 78.0% 21.1%
05 294,887 375,942 42.9% 54.7%
06 215,839 332,415 38.8% 59.7%
07 215,952 390,808 35.2% 63.6%
08 160,372 398,664 28.3% 70.3%
09 156,833 449,301 25.6% 73.3%
10 235,591 331,022 40.5% 57.0%
11 210,974 396,329 34.2% 64.3%
12 242,306 373,920 38.7% 59.7%
13 314,630 110,615 73.3% 25.8%
14 163,020 413,181 27.9% 70.6%
15 116,797 413,942 21.7% 76.9%
As noted, Hillary Clinton carried six districts, while Barack Obama carried five. The thing that always interests me is the shift over time, and you can see how dramatic it was in the districts that we’ve been talking about. Mitt Romney won districts 5, 6, 10, and 12 by double digits, with 6 and 12 being 20-point wins for him. Again, we have seen this in the previous posts, these districts are anchored in the big urban and suburban districts that have trended hard blue recently, this is just another way of looking at it. I like having the different views, you can always pick up some nuances when you have different angles.
I’m working on the Congressional data next. As always, let me know what you think.
