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The official turnout projection, sort of

Here’s the Chron story on the end of early voting.

[E]lection officials and political observers said Friday they expect fewer than one in four registered voters will cast ballots in Tuesday’s elections for Houston mayor, City Council, controller and other local races.

[…]

Early voting, which concluded Friday, ended down more than 15 percent from 2003, when Houston last held a mayoral election without an incumbent on the ballot.

Kevin Mauzy, chief deputy for the county clerk, said the early-voting totals lead him to expect Tuesday’s turnout will be lower than in 2003, when almost 375,000 people went to the polls.

What, nobody wants to give an actual number? Wimps. I got your numbers right here. Twenty-five percent turnout, assuming we’re talking city of Houston here, is about 250,000 voters, or right at my top projection, which assumes that the rate of early voting was the same this year as it has been in previous years. My non-confident guess is for about 220,000 voters. Feel free to leave your own guess in the comments.

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3 Comments

  1. maria says:

    214,000 voters and here are my projections for the mayor’s race:
    Parker-34%
    Brown-27%
    Locke-22%
    Morales-11%

  2. […] about this. The original poll was based on a sample that I find questionable, especially given the low turnout projections. I’m not sure what there is to learn by asking followup questions of people who were – […]