# The Kinky/Strayhorn effect

As I did my analysis of the Latino vote in the 2006 election, it occurred to me that I had stumbled across a framework for trying to understand what the effect was of Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn’s candidacies on Rick Perry and Chris Bell. Basically, I would see what percentage of the part vote they got in each State Rep district (SRD), to see if (for example) they were hurt more in areas that were otherwise solid for their partymates. With an assist from Greg Wythe, I got all the relevant data for the 150 SRDs, and went to work. You can see the spreadsheet here (zipped XLS file – it was too big to upload to Google Docs), and a summary of my findings is beneath the fold.

What I did was this: I added up the total Republican and Democratic votes in each of the nine other contested statewide races, and took their average, then computed the R and D average percentage (“R pct” and “D pct” in the header below). I then compared Perry and Bell’s vote totals and percentages to each. “P share” is the ratio of Perry’s vote percentage in that SRD to the average Republican percentage (R pct), and “D share” is the same for Bell. “Diff” is the difference between “P share” and “D share”, so a positive number means Perry retained a higher share of the Republican vote in that SRD than Bell did with the Democratic vote.

While that’s an interesting statistic, what we really care about is how many votes were lost to the third-party candidates. So, I also compared the total votes Perry and Bell got to the party averages in each SRD. “P delta” and “B delta” are the differences between the party averages and the individual totals for each. Finally, I subtracted Bell’s deltas from Perry’s (“P minus B”) to see who suffered the greater loss.

You can see all the data beneath the fold, and you can play with the spreadsheet if you want. Not too surprisingly, as far as the total votes go, Perry and Bell lost the most in the districts where their partymates did the best. That just makes sense, as it’s where the votes are. There wasn’t much of a pattern in terms of vote share in the districts that went the most strongly for one side or the other. Perry and Bell did about as well at retaining vote share overall, though there were some individual variations. Bell tended to do his best at retaining vote share in the African-American SRDs. Perry did well at that in two places: West Texas, and Latino districts. In fact, in SRD31 (Ryan Guillen, Webb County), Perry exceeded the Republican average vote. Bell, by contrast, had some trouble retaining the vote in a number of these districts, though it should be noted that in some of them the overall Democratic vote wasn’t that strong. That as we know is partly a function of the drop in turnout from 2002. But while Perry’s total vote percentage in the Latino SRDs dropped from 2002, it was nonetheless the case that he got his share of what Republican vote there was. Add that to the vote that wandered away from Bell, and it’s clear that there are folks who are open to persuasion. It’s Bill White’s job, and the job of the rest of the Democratic ticket, to keep these voters on their side.

```
Dist  SSVR%    R pct   D pct  Perry%  Bell%  P share B share    Diff  P delta B delta P minus B
===============================================================================================
31    91.2%   17.24%  82.76%  21.68%  62.32%    1.26    0.75    0.50     -799   2,121    -2,920
76    85.0%   24.96%  75.04%  22.69%  50.34%    0.91    0.67    0.24      148   3,207    -3,058
38    76.8%   42.39%  57.61%  35.51%  34.90%    0.84    0.61    0.23      571   3,142    -2,572
79    64.4%   42.74%  57.26%  34.38%  33.30%    0.80    0.58    0.22      938   3,310    -2,372
36    82.3%   34.02%  65.98%  32.16%  48.23%    0.95    0.73    0.21      -32   1,631    -1,663
42    85.9%   28.20%  71.80%  25.33%  49.49%    0.90    0.69    0.21      173   2,660    -2,486
78    45.5%   54.98%  45.02%  42.56%  25.61%    0.77    0.57    0.21    2,358   4,510    -2,152
75    76.6%   39.62%  60.38%  32.59%  37.42%    0.82    0.62    0.20      788   3,164    -2,375
77    73.3%   30.90%  69.10%  26.11%  44.68%    0.84    0.65    0.20      412   2,934    -2,522
37    82.0%   35.97%  64.03%  29.89%  40.57%    0.83    0.63    0.20      370   2,374    -2,003
40    88.0%   28.86%  71.14%  25.42%  50.03%    0.88    0.70    0.18      171   1,567    -1,396
43    70.4%   47.55%  52.45%  38.39%  33.36%    0.81    0.64    0.17    1,047   2,833    -1,786
39    81.5%   35.90%  64.10%  31.25%  45.58%    0.87    0.71    0.16      308   1,696    -1,388
69     7.7%   65.97%  34.03%  45.69%  18.60%    0.69    0.55    0.15    4,762   3,960       802
41    68.3%   51.83%  48.17%  41.84%  32.72%    0.81    0.68    0.13    1,092   1,954      -862
14    10.4%   69.21%  30.79%  52.70%  20.25%    0.76    0.66    0.10    3,331   2,394       937
81    32.9%   73.06%  26.94%  49.56%  15.55%    0.68    0.58    0.10    4,223   2,149     2,074
19     2.5%   60.01%  39.99%  46.22%  27.05%    0.77    0.68    0.09    3,002   3,054       -51
82    24.3%   78.43%  21.57%  54.55%  13.12%    0.70    0.61    0.09    6,098   2,260     3,838
33    54.9%   48.97%  51.03%  34.72%  32.55%    0.71    0.64    0.07    2,970   4,099    -1,129
15     5.7%   76.88%  23.12%  52.82%  14.37%    0.69    0.62    0.07    8,533   3,217     5,316
21     5.6%   59.75%  40.25%  45.07%  27.96%    0.75    0.69    0.06    3,387   3,021       366
16     7.7%   76.12%  23.88%  50.21%  14.49%    0.66    0.61    0.05    7,102   2,644     4,458
5      2.2%   64.09%  35.91%  44.88%  23.41%    0.70    0.65    0.05    5,884   3,968     1,916
74    56.8%   52.79%  47.21%  36.73%  30.68%    0.70    0.65    0.05    2,974   3,241      -267
1      1.2%   53.27%  46.73%  39.93%  33.55%    0.75    0.72    0.03    3,155   3,222       -68
88    16.2%   74.94%  25.06%  49.41%  15.82%    0.66    0.63    0.03    6,318   2,340     3,978
87    18.3%   70.47%  29.53%  45.03%  18.20%    0.64    0.62    0.02    4,782   2,156     2,625
54    11.2%   62.51%  37.49%  45.03%  26.29%    0.72    0.70    0.02    3,863   2,511     1,352
68     6.4%   66.06%  33.94%  40.16%  20.06%    0.61    0.59    0.02    7,372   3,998     3,374
6      4.4%   72.97%  27.03%  54.75%  19.86%    0.75    0.73    0.02    5,234   2,084     3,150
2      3.5%   66.89%  33.11%  44.30%  21.46%    0.66    0.65    0.01    5,861   3,056     2,805
18     4.5%   62.07%  37.93%  37.53%  22.67%    0.60    0.60    0.01    5,881   3,672     2,209
32    31.2%   61.04%  38.96%  41.62%  26.32%    0.68    0.68    0.01    5,642   3,690     1,952
72    22.9%   71.57%  28.43%  49.84%  19.66%    0.70    0.69    0.00    4,692   1,901     2,790
55    10.6%   66.78%  33.22%  41.03%  20.27%    0.61    0.61    0.00    6,961   3,504     3,456
62     2.7%   61.71%  38.29%  44.15%  27.25%    0.72    0.71    0.00    4,769   3,008     1,762
53    13.5%   73.19%  26.81%  47.33%  17.33%    0.65    0.65    0.00    8,803   3,224     5,579
9      2.5%   62.06%  37.94%  44.10%  27.01%    0.71    0.71    0.00    4,337   2,637     1,700
124   58.1%   44.57%  55.43%  28.77%  36.02%    0.65    0.65    0.00    2,880   3,531      -651
73    12.6%   76.31%  23.69%  48.08%  15.02%    0.63    0.63    0.00   12,379   3,788     8,591
11     3.2%   66.54%  33.46%  45.03%  22.83%    0.68    0.68   -0.01    5,957   2,931     3,027
34    53.7%   51.33%  48.67%  35.88%  34.32%    0.70    0.71   -0.01    3,352   3,097       255
150   11.2%   70.85%  29.15%  47.14%  19.59%    0.67    0.67   -0.01    6,555   2,633     3,922
130    9.5%   74.82%  25.18%  50.44%  17.17%    0.67    0.68   -0.01    8,331   2,724     5,607
65     7.8%   66.29%  33.71%  48.11%  24.76%    0.73    0.73   -0.01    4,643   2,271     2,372
63     4.9%   73.32%  26.68%  51.53%  19.16%    0.70    0.72   -0.02    7,575   2,581     4,994
143   63.6%   35.31%  64.69%  26.33%  49.26%    0.75    0.76   -0.02      582     977      -395
86    10.8%   78.56%  21.44%  49.79%  13.97%    0.63    0.65   -0.02    8,979   2,312     6,667
80    69.0%   48.89%  51.11%  32.31%  34.75%    0.66    0.68   -0.02    2,954   2,861        93
4      4.3%   65.96%  34.04%  42.14%  22.43%    0.64    0.66   -0.02    7,153   3,440     3,714
7      3.5%   71.37%  28.63%  50.37%  20.86%    0.71    0.73   -0.02    5,556   2,025     3,531
89     5.7%   73.25%  26.75%  51.03%  19.28%    0.70    0.72   -0.02    8,062   2,653     5,409
60     6.3%   69.47%  30.53%  45.64%  20.83%    0.66    0.68   -0.03    7,360   2,951     4,409
125   58.9%   46.76%  53.24%  29.73%  35.27%    0.64    0.66   -0.03    3,572   3,712      -140
145   64.5%   35.89%  64.11%  26.22%  48.54%    0.73    0.76   -0.03      761   1,187      -426
117   55.5%   50.99%  49.01%  32.69%  32.73%    0.64    0.67   -0.03    3,345   2,920       424
104   55.9%   28.40%  71.60%  21.36%  55.91%    0.75    0.78   -0.03      593   1,270      -677
126   11.7%   68.49%  31.51%  47.86%  22.94%    0.70    0.73   -0.03    4,919   2,003     2,915
8      5.2%   62.86%  37.14%  39.98%  24.79%    0.64    0.67   -0.03    5,885   3,110     2,775
140   56.0%   35.79%  64.21%  26.93%  50.37%    0.75    0.78   -0.03      553     827      -274
135   17.5%   64.20%  35.80%  43.19%  25.27%    0.67    0.71   -0.03    4,061   1,990     2,071
58     6.8%   67.76%  32.24%  42.49%  21.29%    0.63    0.66   -0.03    7,452   3,164     4,288
119   58.9%   41.45%  58.55%  25.61%  38.20%    0.62    0.65   -0.03    2,723   3,429      -706
59     7.4%   66.79%  33.21%  42.60%  22.39%    0.64    0.67   -0.04    5,456   2,381     3,075
106   21.2%   54.99%  45.01%  38.62%  33.25%    0.70    0.74   -0.04    2,760   1,905       856
61     4.3%   71.15%  28.85%  46.41%  19.88%    0.65    0.69   -0.04    8,076   2,857     5,219
24    10.2%   63.33%  36.67%  39.61%  24.34%    0.63    0.66   -0.04    7,806   3,953     3,853
132   16.0%   68.04%  31.96%  44.88%  22.34%    0.66    0.70   -0.04    5,895   2,387     3,508
120   33.5%   38.29%  61.71%  24.93%  42.63%    0.65    0.69   -0.04    2,191   3,047      -856
22     5.0%   27.15%  72.85%  21.62%  60.98%    0.80    0.84   -0.04      805   1,622      -817
116   59.2%   41.31%  58.69%  26.33%  39.81%    0.64    0.68   -0.04    2,445   3,001      -556
3      3.3%   58.78%  41.22%  39.74%  29.58%    0.68    0.72   -0.04    4,892   2,855     2,037
122   18.0%   70.54%  29.46%  47.04%  20.89%    0.67    0.71   -0.04   11,293   3,994     7,299
123   59.8%   41.84%  58.16%  26.26%  39.20%    0.63    0.67   -0.05    2,621   3,086     -465
113   11.1%   61.29%  38.71%  43.91%  29.53%    0.72    0.76   -0.05    3,698   1,856     1,841
64     7.6%   61.32%  38.68%  40.55%  27.42%    0.66    0.71   -0.05    5,585   2,913     2,673
127    9.4%   70.58%  29.42%  46.35%  20.82%    0.66    0.71   -0.05    7,364   2,525     4,839
105   12.8%   59.44%  40.56%  42.31%  30.96%    0.71    0.76   -0.05    2,906   1,519     1,387
57    12.6%   49.92%  50.08%  32.67%  35.43%    0.65    0.71   -0.05    3,937   3,230       707
70     6.2%   71.59%  28.41%  51.65%  22.04%    0.72    0.78   -0.05    7,061   2,109     4,952
149   14.9%   55.16%  44.84%  40.15%  35.08%    0.73    0.78   -0.05    2,815   1,721     1,094
29    14.5%   62.59%  37.41%  39.47%  25.66%    0.63    0.69   -0.06    6,920   3,389     3,531
26     9.4%   63.49%  36.51%  45.96%  28.57%    0.72    0.78   -0.06    5,768   2,485     3,283
137   21.3%   48.77%  51.23%  35.16%  39.98%    0.72    0.78   -0.06      993     767       225
10     9.9%   68.74%  31.26%  41.52%  20.74%    0.60    0.66   -0.06    8,081   2,963     5,118
101   12.2%   55.92%  44.08%  38.85%  33.28%    0.69    0.75   -0.06    3,303   1,967     1,336
93    12.6%   54.42%  45.58%  37.95%  34.55%    0.70    0.76   -0.06    2,991   1,891     1,101
98     6.0%   72.91%  27.09%  51.35%  20.77%    0.70    0.77   -0.06    8,579   2,355     6,224
25    15.5%   65.24%  34.76%  36.65%  21.72%    0.56    0.62   -0.06    6,958   3,059     3,899
20     8.6%   66.02%  33.98%  45.50%  25.59%    0.69    0.75   -0.06    8,313   3,180     5,133
144   28.2%   60.32%  39.68%  39.76%  28.71%    0.66    0.72   -0.06    3,456   1,752     1,704
121   21.2%   64.13%  35.87%  40.94%  25.25%    0.64    0.70   -0.07    7,694   3,351     4,343
129    9.2%   65.46%  34.54%  43.24%  25.09%    0.66    0.73   -0.07    6,335   2,542     3,792
128   18.4%   64.37%  35.63%  39.14%  24.15%    0.61    0.68   -0.07    4,728   2,059     2,669
118   57.3%   47.31%  52.69%  28.31%  35.21%    0.60    0.67   -0.07    3,635   3,195       441
35    54.2%   51.57%  48.43%  31.85%  33.37%    0.62    0.69   -0.07    4,936   3,567     1,369
112    7.0%   62.81%  37.19%  44.10%  28.84%    0.70    0.78   -0.07    5,119   2,102     3,018
133   11.7%   60.55%  39.45%  42.16%  30.45%    0.70    0.77   -0.08    3,230   1,472     1,758
111   11.3%   30.86%  69.14%  23.42%  57.86%    0.76    0.84   -0.08    1,846   2,537      -690
99    10.6%   64.81%  35.19%  42.31%  25.81%    0.65    0.73   -0.08    6,878   2,683     4,195
138   19.5%   60.29%  39.71%  37.73%  28.06%    0.63    0.71   -0.08    4,037   1,963     2,074
96     9.8%   57.37%  42.63%  38.91%  32.38%    0.68    0.76   -0.08    5,909   3,062     2,846
109    6.3%   28.33%  71.67%  20.97%  58.92%    0.74    0.82   -0.08    2,103   3,293    -1,190
52    13.7%   58.33%  41.67%  38.81%  31.15%    0.67    0.75   -0.08    5,851   2,880     2,970
136    7.1%   72.07%  27.93%  49.64%  21.54%    0.69    0.77   -0.08    6,579   1,737     4,843
115    8.9%   66.45%  33.55%  46.66%  26.36%    0.70    0.79   -0.08    5,173   1,690     3,482
100   15.9%   22.33%  77.67%  16.66%  64.46%    0.75    0.83   -0.08      760   1,579      -819
107   10.9%   55.48%  44.52%  37.47%  33.82%    0.68    0.76   -0.08    4,758   2,560     2,198
67     5.4%   63.94%  36.06%  45.09%  28.50%    0.71    0.79   -0.09    4,008   1,426     2,582
91     9.0%   63.87%  36.13%  41.54%  26.70%    0.65    0.74   -0.09    5,709   2,239     3,470
56     6.9%   67.67%  32.33%  40.31%  22.13%    0.60    0.68   -0.09    9,968   3,567     6,401
110   13.3%   16.92%  83.08%  12.98%  71.20%    0.77    0.86   -0.09      573   1,529      -956
71    13.7%   72.30%  27.70%  42.30%  18.69%    0.59    0.67   -0.09    8,007   2,290     5,718
45    22.0%   56.05%  43.95%  34.63%  31.09%    0.62    0.71   -0.09    7,205   3,997     3,207
92     7.2%   64.86%  35.14%  43.21%  26.77%    0.67    0.76   -0.10    5,887   2,091     3,796
66     3.5%   69.28%  30.72%  50.02%  25.12%    0.72    0.82   -0.10    5,339   1,340     3,999
103   38.0%   33.65%  66.35%  23.92%  53.66%    0.71    0.81   -0.10      895   1,028      -133
12     4.9%   59.94%  40.06%  38.06%  29.42%    0.63    0.73   -0.10    6,822   3,051     3,770
13     6.0%   67.72%  32.28%  37.29%  21.13%    0.55    0.65   -0.10    8,569   2,955     5,613
44    25.3%   66.95%  33.05%  37.32%  21.91%    0.56    0.66   -0.11    9,918   3,512     6,406
139   15.6%   20.67%  79.33%  15.27%  67.14%    0.74    0.85   -0.11      755   1,507      -753
131   14.2%   22.91%  77.09%  16.80%  64.86%    0.73    0.84   -0.11      898   1,578      -679
94     6.5%   64.75%  35.25%  42.58%  27.06%    0.66    0.77   -0.11    6,386   2,108     4,277
142   17.9%   22.94%  77.06%  16.81%  65.31%    0.73    0.85   -0.11      956   1,617      -662
84    28.6%   65.37%  34.63%  41.27%  25.88%    0.63    0.75   -0.12    5,045   1,702     3,343
90    45.9%   32.67%  67.33%  22.18%  53.64%    0.68    0.80   -0.12    1,188   1,387      -199
102    6.9%   59.17%  40.83%  41.55%  33.57%    0.70    0.82   -0.12    3,637   1,256     2,381
30    20.5%   65.78%  34.22%  38.96%  24.41%    0.59    0.71   -0.12    7,285   2,428     4,857
27    18.6%   42.68%  57.32%  29.84%  47.05%    0.70    0.82   -0.12    3,883   2,794     1,089
23    14.3%   46.35%  53.65%  25.48%  36.09%    0.55    0.67   -0.12    5,502   4,228     1,274
28    13.0%   65.50%  34.50%  39.52%  25.15%    0.60    0.73   -0.13    9,262   3,106     6,156
85    28.9%   65.56%  34.44%  39.15%  25.12%    0.60    0.73   -0.13    6,524   2,085     4,439
50    10.8%   49.54%  50.46%  32.52%  39.82%    0.66    0.79   -0.13    5,634   3,016     2,618
148   43.6%   37.70%  62.30%  22.65%  45.74%    0.60    0.73   -0.13    2,228   2,184        44
83    18.9%   76.16%  23.84%  47.80%  18.20%    0.63    0.76   -0.14    9,465   1,717     7,749
114    5.5%   62.96%  37.04%  44.86%  31.44%    0.71    0.85   -0.14    4,444   1,039     3,405
47    12.5%   51.39%  48.61%  33.59%  38.44%    0.65    0.79   -0.14    7,857   3,831     4,026
46    19.5%   26.28%  73.72%  16.10%  55.31%    0.61    0.75   -0.14    1,880   3,054    -1,174
108   10.3%   57.79%  42.21%  39.40%  34.66%    0.68    0.82   -0.14    4,618   1,504     3,114
141   14.4%   26.53%  73.47%  18.60%  61.83%    0.70    0.84   -0.14    1,111   1,413      -302
147   14.6%   21.52%  78.48%  14.51%  64.12%    0.67    0.82   -0.14    1,215   2,121      -906
17    10.7%   58.60%  41.40%  32.71%  29.30%    0.56    0.71   -0.15    8,634   3,591     5,043
97     8.2%   61.71%  38.29%  40.65%  30.99%    0.66    0.81   -0.15    7,498   2,209     5,289
51    42.4%   23.81%  76.19%  13.41%  55.05%    0.56    0.72   -0.16    1,470   2,638    -1,168
95     9.1%   24.83%  75.17%  16.91%  63.38%    0.68    0.84   -0.16    1,624   2,105      -481
48     6.4%   52.87%  47.13%  35.22%  39.38%    0.67    0.84   -0.17    6,945   2,353     4,592
134    6.3%   54.09%  45.91%  32.81%  36.56%    0.61    0.80   -0.19    8,091   2,837     5,253
146    6.8%   29.76%  70.24%  19.27%  58.95%    0.65    0.84   -0.19    2,373   2,080       293
49    11.7%   25.03%  74.97%  13.68%  58.98%    0.55    0.79   -0.24    3,927   4,233      -306

58.64%  41.36%  39.27%  29.98%    0.67    0.72
```

### One Comment

1. Brad M. says:

Strayhorn and Kinky weren’t third party candidates. They were independent candidates.