Following on from yesterday’s post, here’s a look at the vote in Fort Bend from the perspective of the State Rep districts.
Office Rep Dem Rep % Dem %
===============================================
President 35,005 31,558 52.59% 47.41%
CJ, 1st CofA 40,047 28,336 58.56% 41.44%
1st CofA #4 39,311 28,940 57.60% 42.40%
14th CofA #2 39,351 28,873 57.68% 42.32%
14th CofA #9 40,008 28,185 58.67% 41.33%
240th JD 39,743 28,291 58.42% 41.58%
400th JD 39,954 28,130 58.68% 41.32%
County Court #5 39,194 28,774 57.67% 42.33%
Sheriff 41,342 27,454 60.09% 39.91%
HD26 39,672 28,876 57.87% 42.13%
President 08 39,210 24,076 61.96% 38.04%
President 12 39,595 22,554 63.71% 36.29%
Office Rep Dem Rep % Dem %
===============================================
President 18,471 47,471 28.01% 71.99%
CJ, 1st CofA 21,234 46,194 31.49% 68.51%
1st CofA #4 20,732 46,629 30.78% 69.22%
14th CofA #2 20,635 46,766 30.62% 69.38%
14th CofA #9 21,235 46,072 31.55% 68.45%
240th JD 20,912 46,159 31.18% 68.82%
400th JD 20,999 46,161 31.27% 68.73%
County Court #5 20,590 46,422 30.73% 69.27%
Sheriff 21,147 46,215 31.39% 68.61%
HD27 21,531 45,648 32.05% 67.95%
President 08 18,186 42,374 30.03% 69.97%
President 12 18,939 42,811 30.67% 69.33%
Office Rep Dem Rep % Dem %
===============================================
President 44,604 36,032 55.32% 44.68%
CJ, 1st CofA 50,370 33,133 60.32% 39.68%
1st CofA #4 49,824 33,595 59.73% 40.27%
14th CofA #2 49,791 33,655 59.67% 40.33%
14th CofA #9 50,503 32,857 60.58% 39.42%
240th JD 50,064 32,972 60.29% 39.71%
400th JD 50,238 32,827 60.48% 39.52%
County Court #5 49,563 33,405 59.74% 40.26%
Sheriff 51,110 32,457 61.16% 38.84%
HD28 56,777 0 100.00% 0.00%
President 08 30,636 21,813 58.41% 41.59%
President 12 40,593 22,001 64.85% 35.15%
Office Rep Dem Rep % Dem %
===============================================
President 19,132 19,414 49.63% 50.37%
CJ, 1st CofA 20,705 18,695 52.55% 47.45%
1st CofA #4 20,563 18,773 52.28% 47.72%
14th CofA #2 20,484 18,845 52.08% 47.92%
14th CofA #9 20,795 18,524 52.89% 47.11%
240th JD 20,864 18,405 53.13% 46.87%
400th JD 21,064 18,238 53.60% 46.40%
County Court #5 20,502 18,726 52.26% 47.74%
Sheriff 21,365 18,214 53.98% 46.02%
HD85 20,876 18,539 52.96% 47.04%
President 08 28,328 19,638 59.06% 40.94%
President 12 30,652 19,087 61.63% 38.37%
I want to begin by noting that HD85 is only partly in Fort Bend; it also encompasses Jackson and Wharton counties. I have no explanation for why the Republican vote dropped off by 10K from 2012 while the Democratic vote has held more or less steady over the past three elections. I didn’t include the 2012 and 2008 Presidential numbers when I first drafted this post, so I wouldn’t have even noticed that had I not added them in later. Maybe there are fewer people in the district? I have no idea. Feel free to enlighten me in the comments.
HD26 is the revelation here. It’s never been on anyone’s radar as being potentially competitive, having been drawn as a 62% or so Republican district in 2011. What appears to be happening is that much like Commissioner’s Precinct 4, HD26 gained Democratic voters, about 6,000 of them over 2012, without gaining any Republican voters. This is not a coincidence, as 26 of the 41 voting precincts in HD26 are in CC4, so the fortunes of the two are clearly correlated. The non-Presidential numbers don’t really qualify HD26 as a swing district, but the trend is in the right direction, and if 2018 winds up a lower turnout year for Republicans, this could interesting. And while I’ve consistently downplayed the Presidential numbers in various contexts, one does have to wonder if a Republican who was persuaded to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 might be open to the possibility of voting for a good Democratic candidate against a Trump-supporting Republican officeholder in 2018. The more we can test messages that might move the needle a point or two, the better. Whatever the case, even if 2018 is too soon for demographic change to make HD26 competitive, 2020 may not be. And remember that overlap between Commissioner’s Precinct 4 and HD26. A good candidate in one race can help the other, and vice versa.
Neither HDs 27 nor 28 are competitive, and neither are all that interesting to look at from this view. HD28 is clearly the fast-growing part of Fort Bend – it mostly overlaps with Commissioner’s Precinct 3, in case you were wondering. Turnout has increased by over 60% in HD28 since 2008. Democrats have kept up since 2012, but are behind overall from 2008. My guess is that if redistricting were to be done today, HD28 would be used to shore up HD26, while perhaps also dumping some Democrats into HD27, which hasn’t grown much. I don’t see HD28 becoming competitive based on what we observe here, but as a population center it’s imperative for Dems to engage here, because this area will have an outsized impact on countywide races. You have to keep the margin here manageable, and make sure that new residents who lean Democratic are aware that their votes are needed even if their local races aren’t really winnable.