Let’s finish up our look at the primary precinct data with a peek at the Republican side of things. As a reminder, my analysis of the Democratic Senate primary is here, my analysis of the Governor and Lt. Governor races is here, and my analysis of the countywide races is here. We start here with the Senate race, where Ted Cruz had four opponents:
Dist Sam Cruz Stef Miller Jacobson Cruz %
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HD126 217 9,385 222 429 295 88.97%
HD127 263 12,657 301 598 354 89.30%
HD128 151 8,585 106 313 207 91.70%
HD129 242 9,345 217 535 280 88.00%
HD130 236 12,193 233 511 321 90.36%
HD131 50 1,280 44 83 41 85.45%
HD132 161 7,077 164 316 221 89.14%
HD133 300 12,431 390 823 503 86.05%
HD134 492 10,749 824 1,283 720 76.41%
HD135 159 6,226 146 321 194 88.36%
HD137 56 1,903 59 134 70 85.64%
HD138 151 6,716 216 337 185 88.31%
HD139 66 2,534 89 159 77 86.63%
HD140 23 1,054 16 27 26 91.97%
HD141 13 882 15 32 18 91.88%
HD142 41 1,656 51 84 49 88.04%
HD143 30 1,580 25 61 41 90.96%
HD144 43 2,102 30 79 69 90.49%
HD145 52 2,082 78 126 75 86.28%
HD146 79 2,174 125 189 82 82.07%
HD147 99 1,684 151 201 96 75.48%
HD148 118 3,164 237 275 154 80.14%
HD149 101 3,046 75 194 117 86.22%
HD150 206 11,161 227 430 284 90.68%
Cruz got just over 87% in Harris County. If he did any campaigning here, I didn’t see it – the one sign I did see of any activity was one sign for Stefano de Stefano a few blocks from my house. In most districts, Cruz is right around his countywide total, but there are two that really stand out. I doubt anyone is surprised to see that HD134 was a low-performing district for Cruz, but I didn’t see HD147 coming. It’s an inner-Loop district, and I’d bet the Republican voters there skew a little younger than average, so it’s not like it’s a shock, just unexpected. Now let’s move to the Governor’s race:
Dist Kilgore Krueger Abbott Abbott%
======================================
HD126 115 759 9,623 91.67%
HD127 192 970 12,921 91.75%
HD128 97 497 8,720 93.62%
HD129 130 839 9,644 90.87%
HD130 131 793 12,535 93.13%
HD131 27 133 1,329 89.25%
HD132 86 515 7,289 92.38%
HD133 153 1,335 13,024 89.75%
HD134 278 2,701 11,042 78.75%
HD135 103 489 6,422 91.56%
HD137 38 187 1,999 89.88%
HD138 112 545 6,936 91.35%
HD139 41 259 2,618 89.72%
HD140 28 57 1,056 92.55%
HD141 4 59 897 93.44%
HD142 24 128 1,706 91.82%
HD143 33 76 1,621 93.70%
HD144 29 126 2,153 93.28%
HD145 47 208 2,147 89.38%
HD146 54 311 2,277 86.18%
HD147 78 339 1,780 81.02%
HD148 84 481 3,370 85.64%
HD149 58 287 3,187 90.23%
HD150 151 745 11,385 92.70%
If you look the term “token opposition” up in the dictionary, you’ll see the two non-Greg Abbott candidates in the definition. Abbott got 90.09% in Harris County against a fringe candidate’s fringe candidate and a first-time no-name. Like Ted Cruz, Abbott performed mostly to spec around the county, once again with the notable exception of HD134. Nearly three thousand Republican primary voters, more than 20% of the total in HD134, basically said “anyone bu Greg Abbott”. There were a few people during the primary who thought Sarah Davis was being a bit nonchalant about the campaign against her, being spearheaded as forcefully as it was by Abbott. Maybe she knew something, you know?
Last but not least, Lite Guv:
Dest Milder Patrick Patrick%
==============================
HD126 1,826 8,802 82.82%
HD127 2,289 11,890 83.86%
HD128 1,540 7,904 83.69%
HD129 1,768 8,878 83.39%
HD130 2,203 11,406 83.81%
HD131 257 1,242 82.86%
HD132 1,268 6,696 84.08%
HD133 3,144 11,470 78.49%
HD134 4,748 9,589 66.88%
HD135 1,174 5,906 83.42%
HD137 399 1,831 82.11%
HD138 1,208 6,428 84.18%
HD139 524 2,441 82.33%
HD140 107 1,032 90.61%
HD141 92 863 90.37%
HD142 275 1,605 85.37%
HD143 173 1,555 89.99%
HD144 274 2,025 88.08%
HD145 406 2,007 83.17%
HD146 576 2,084 78.35%
HD147 614 1,622 72.54%
HD148 892 3,072 77.50%
HD149 618 2,915 82.51%
HD150 1,839 10,583 85.20%
On the one hand, the protest candidacy by Scott Milder didn’t amount to that much, as Dan Patrick got 81.45% of the vote in Harris County and over 76% statewide. On the other hand, there were still a lot of people who did vote for Milder, including one out of three participants in HD134. To the extent that there’s hope for some anti-Trump crossover backlash this November, the Republicans who refused to vote for their top three name brands would be the starting point.
One other point to address with the Lite Guv race is the question of turnout in that race compared to other Republican primaries. We know there was an effort by education and business groups to encourage people to vote in the Republican primary to support more moderate candidates, with Scott Milder being the poster boy for that. If people who were not normally Republican primary voters were coming to vote against Dan Patrick, it stands to reason that they may not have bothered voting in the other races, since they presumably held less interest for them. The evidence for that is mixed. In Harris, Travis, and Tarrant counties, it was indeed the case that more people voted in the Lt. Governor race than in the Senate and Governor races; the other statewide races had far lower totals than those three. Indeed, the undervote in Harris County in the Lite Guv race (2.38%) was lower than it was in the hotly contested open-seat CD02 race (2.48%). However, in Bexar and Dallas counties, the Lite Guv vote total was third, behind Senate and Governor, which is what you’d normally expect given ballot order and profile of the offices in question. I wouldn’t draw too broad a conclusion about any of this – some of those drawn-in voters may well cast ballots in other races, especially visible ones like Senate and Governor, and in all of these cases the differences are small. I just like looking for this sort of thing and felt it was worth pointing out even if it’s ambiguous.
So that’s what I have for the precinct data. As always, I hope this was useful to you. Let me know if you have any questions.
” On the other hand, there were still a lot of people who did vote for Milder, including one out of three participants in HD134. To the extent that there’s hope for some anti-Trump crossover backlash this November, the Republicans who refused to vote for their top three name brands would be the starting point.”
Kuff,
Don’t confuse a dislike of Dan Patrick with a dislike of Trump. I voted Milder because I’m not happy with Dan Patrick and his failed promises of property tax relief, plus his embarrassing foray into bathrooms. That said, I still solidly stand with Trump, Omnibus debacle not withstanding.