A slight majority of Texas voters would choose someone other than Donald Trump in a presidential race held right now, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.
While 45 percent said they would “definitely vote for someone else,” 39 percent said they would “definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump.” But the president got 10 percent who said they would “probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump,” and only 6 percent said they would “probably vote for someone else.”
If you count the leaners on both sides, that would be a virtual tie between Trump and an unnamed opponent.
“President ‘Else’ is doing pretty well,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a government professor at the University of Texas at Austin. “The definitely-vote-for-somebody-else is pretty solid, I think.”
The president is strong with Republicans (88 percent would re-elect) and weak with Democrats (93 percent want someone else). He’s got some work to do with independent voters. Only 24 percent would definitely vote for him, while 42 percent say they would definitely vote against him.
The poll is of 1,200 registered voters; for obvious reasons, there’s no such thing as a “likely voter” at this time. The advantage of the “generic Dem” approach is that it avoids any variance due to name recognition. Forty-five percent of RVs saying they will “definitely vote for someone else” – and 51% saying “definitely” or “probably” – is a strong statement, though of course how many of them show up to vote is another question.
The disadvantage to the “generic Dem” approach of course is that our hypothetical Democrat has no strengths or weaknesses, no record to tour or defend, no demonstrated ability to campaign or fundraise or what have you. All Dems are equal in this calculus, but as we well know some are more equal than others. But re-elections are always first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent, and this is a weak showing by Trump. It’s one result, it’s stupid early, blah blah blah, but this is not the kind of number to make Republicans breathe a sigh of relief. I suspect we’re going to get an awful lot more polling done in Texas over the next year and eight months. Buckle up.