Two data points isn’t enough for a trend, but it is worth noticing.
A small majority of Texans oppose the deployment of the Texas National Guard for law enforcement in cities out of state, according to a recent statewide survey.
[…]
The survey, conducted by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, Austin between Oct. 10 and Oct. 20, found that 43% of Texans “strongly oppose” the move and 8% “somewhat oppose” it. Forty-one percent of Texans supported the move.
Ten Texas Democratic members of Congress demanded the immediate withdrawal of the state’s troops earlier this month, arguing that the deployment was unlawful.
[…]
A plurality of Texans also said they opposed the use of the U.S. military for law enforcement efforts in American cities, with 49% opposing the move and 43% supporting it.
The poll, which surveyed 1,200 registered voters across Texas, found that Abbott’s approval numbers tumbled to his lowest yet over the course of his decade as governor. His approval rating, 39%, marked a 12 point drop from October last year. Abbott is up for reelection next year for a fourth term as governor.
Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who is also seeking reelection, saw his approval rating fall 10 points from October 2024, coming in this month at 29%. Patrick drew backlash from some conservatives earlier this year for championing measures such as a state ban on consumable hemp products and an influx of funding for the state’s film incentives program.
And Trump’s approval numbers in Texas, too, slipped to 41% after steadily declining from 54% before his inauguration and 53% in February at the start of his second term.
See here for the recent UH/Hobby poll, which also had some possible red flags for Republicans. I focused on the horse race numbers and the shifts in Latino preferences in that poll, but it also had some favorable/unfavorable data, which I’m going to reproduce here:
Name Fav Unfav DK/NA
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Trump 45 52 3
Abbott 45 49 6
Patrick 32 41 27
Paxton 35 48 17
Not a single one in positive territory. These numbers do bounce around, as we’ll see from the Texas Politics Project data, but they’re not in a good place for these four right now.
The Texas Politics Project poll for October has a metric crap-ton of data, which includes Approval and Fav/Unfav data for this quartet and more. I’ll start with Favorability. Here’s the individual results for these four:
And the summary:
Name Fav Unfav None DK/NA
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Trump 41 50 6 2
Abbott 41 49 7 3
Patrick 28 43 14 14
Paxton 28 44 16 11
All a little worse than UH/Hobby. The inclusion of a “neither favorable nor unfavorable” option alters the numbers a bit, but the story is the same. Having a second data point like this is valuable, since for all we know the UH/Hobby poll could be an outlier. That could still be the case, but at least now we have a second source.
And here’s Approval:
Name App Disap None DK/NA
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Trump 42 51 6 1
Abbott 39 50 9 2
Patrick 29 46 15 10
Paxton 29 45 16 10
Very similar, though not identical. I don’t know how people differentiate the two, but it’s not hard to imagine someone thinking “I like the guy but he’s off his game right now”, or “I don’t really care for this guy, but he’s making some sense on this thing that is important to me”, or something like that.
The Texas Politics Project poll has kept track of these numbers over time, which is great because they also produce trend data for these four, all of which go back a long way. Here’s the trend data, which is Approve/Disapprove for the three Texans and Favorable/Unfavorable for Trump:
Trump – As noted, this is Fav/Unfav. They have a trend for that but not for Approve/Disapprove because the data goes all the way back to November 2015 and Approve/Disapprove is for incumbents, not for candidates or potential candidates. This is a tie for his second worst ever, with August 2022. His worst was August 2023, 41 Fav, 51 Unfav. In December 2024, he was at 54 Favorable and 39 Unfavorable.
Greg Abbott – This is his worst ever Approval rating. In December 2024 he was at 55 approve, 34 disapprove. Ouch.
Patrick – Also his worst ever Approval rating, with his second worst being June of 2025, when he was at 30 Approve and 42 Disapprove. Before that, you have to go back to August of 2021, when he was at 33 – 42. In December of 2024, he was at 41 Approve, 27 Disapprove.
Paxton – His second worst ever, after August 2023 (27 approve, 46 disapprove). Paxton’s December 2024 was 40 approve, 30 disapprove.
As you can see in these trend lines, the numbers do move around over time, though Abbott and Patrick in particular have generally been in positive territory. The drop from December 2024 for all of them is steep and remarkable. That said, we’re a long way off from the next election, and they will have the time and money to make the eventual Democratic statewide candidates also be in negative territory. I’m just flagging this for now as a thing to keep an eye on. If six months from now everyone’s at neutral or better, then maybe this was all nothing to see. I’ll be checking back.