Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #5

Our last At Large race, and another one with many candidates. There wasn’t a clear division among the nine contestants here, so I’m presenting them all.

Dist Batteau  Garcia Flowers    Dick  Rivera  Bonton  Alcorn   Woods McNeese
A        654     955   1,232   4,224   1,676     952   2,526     835   1,333
B      1,421     826   1,905   1,206   1,567   2,973   1,068   1,328   1,674
C      1,459   1,502   2,782   7,167   2,769   1,377  14,491   1,852   2,147
D      3,661   1,076   3,588   1,910   1,901   2,385   2,528   1,733   2,130
E      1,275   1,271   1,498   7,117   2,865   1,311   3,966   1,233   1,774
F        553     599     865   1,997   1,165     848   1,172     646     809
G      1,107     939   1,693   7,974   1,821   1,199   9,274   1,237   2,754
H        577   1,718   1,449   1,635   2,459     843   2,574     789     703
I        654   1,661   1,173   1,251   2,277     639   1,369     573     570
J        371     447     585   1,415     865     474   1,034     434     468
K      1,440     910   2,056   2,523   1,729   1,755   3,012   1,250   1,611
A      4.55%   6.64%   8.56%  29.36%  11.65%   6.62%  17.56%   5.80%   9.27%
B     10.17%   5.91%  13.64%   8.63%  11.22%  21.28%   7.65%   9.51%  11.98%
C      4.10%   4.23%   7.83%  20.16%   7.79%   3.87%  40.77%   5.21%   6.04%
D     17.51%   5.15%  17.16%   9.13%   9.09%  11.40%  12.09%   8.29%  10.19%
E      5.71%   5.70%   6.71%  31.90%  12.84%   5.88%  17.78%   5.53%   7.95%
F      6.39%   6.92%  10.00%  23.08%  13.46%   9.80%  13.54%   7.46%   9.35%
G      3.95%   3.35%   6.05%  28.48%   6.50%   4.28%  33.12%   4.42%   9.84%
H      4.53%  13.48%  11.37%  12.83%  19.29%   6.61%  20.19%   6.19%   5.52%
I      6.43%  16.34%  11.54%  12.30%  22.40%   6.29%  13.47%   5.64%   5.61%
J      6.09%   7.34%   9.60%  23.22%  14.20%   7.78%  16.97%   7.12%   7.68%
K      8.84%   5.59%  12.62%  15.49%  10.62%  10.78%  18.49%   7.68%   9.89%

Here again in our hypothetical ranked-choice election world – which by the way would take a change to state law, so if this is something you really want to see happen, I suggest you contact your State Rep and State Senator – of the nine candidates present I’d list no more than two. Of the remaining seven, I only have the barest idea about the two perennials, one of whom is now in the runoff. Having a lot of candidates run is not at all the same as having many good choices.

Sallie Alcorn led in Districts C (by a large margin), G, and H. Her strength in those districts gives her a clear path to victory if she can consolidate the Democratic vote. Like the other Dems in the runoff she has collected the establishment endorsements, and she is running against an actual Republican elected official. Some Dem activists are not on board, however, in part because she has collected some endorsements from conservative groups like the Houston Realty Business Coalition, and in part because of some hard feelings from the GLBT Political Caucus endorsing her over Ashton Woods. I have no idea how much to make of that.

You don’t need me to tell you about Eric Dick, but I will anyway. This is his fourth run for city office – he ran for At Large #2 in 2011, for Mayor in 2013, for At Large #2 again in 2015, and now this. He was elected to the HCDE in Precinct 4 in 2016, and has been adjacent to some scandals. He littered the town with his yard signs in 2011, hilariously and dishonestly claiming that all the ones that had been illegally placed on utility poles were the work of overzealous volunteers, and made crude sexual jokes about Mayor Annise Parker. After his initial campaign, ads for his law firm became a fixture on the back page of the Houston Press (RIP), and just the other day I saw a brief ad for his firm – not his campaign, because he’d have to report those expenditures – on TV. In other words, whether you ever wanted to or not, you have probably heard of Eric Dick. He led the way in Districts A, E, F, and J, and I have no doubt that helped him. His name and the fact that despite being an actual elected Republican official he’s not closely identified with the Republican Party are his two best assets in the runoff.

Beyond that, what is there to say? Michele Bonton carried District B, perennial candidate Brad Batteau carried D, with Catherine Flowers right behind him, and Sonia Rivera carried I. None of them raised any money, and one presumes their voters are gettable. Alcorn has funding and endorsements, including the Chron – my interview with her is here in case you want to give it a spin – and Dick has himself. We’ll see what happens.

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8 Responses to Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #5

  1. Jennifer says:

    I keep saying that Eric Dick is a closet democrat. You provide the proof. Sallie got the republican voters and Eric Dick got the democrats. Ask anyone at HCDE. Eric Dick single handedly prevented it from being shut down.

  2. Mainstream says:

    Jennifer, I disagree with your analysis. I think Eric Dick’s support in the Democrat districts may come from certain Republican and low information voters who live mixed in those districts, mostly from name ID. In Texas we define party identification based on which primary a voters chooses to participate in. Eric Dick has voted the last 4 elections in GOP primaries, so by definition he is fully Republican. He is also an enigma. He regularly marches in the gay pride parade while receiving the endorsement of Dr. Hotze and others allergic to lgbt equality. He was elected to the HCDE position on a platform to abolish it, and then flipped once in office. Many centrist, moderate, business community Republicans prefer the constancy of Sallie Alcorn, who although a Democrat, served two Republican city council members as chief of staff and gets high marks for competence and attention to detail.

  3. Notsuoh says:

    Businesses prefer Sallie because she gives out contracts. Her motto should be Sallie for city contractors! How else does someone raise half a million dollars?

  4. Jennifer says:

    Only mentally ill Republicans want to shut down HCDE. The fact that you want to shut down Harris County Department of Education and support Sallie makes me very happy that I support Eric Dick.

  5. Mainstream says:

    Jennifer, if you read my post more carefully, you will see that I have not stated my own position on eliminating HCDE, only the inconsistency of Mr. Dick in campaigning on one platform, and then abandoning that platform upon being elected.

  6. Christopher Busby says:

    Sallie is going to probably have the largest victory by percentage city-wide.

  7. earlyvoter says:

    On paper, Ashton Woods should have done a whole lot better. Just being the leader of the local BLM would have earned anybody else a lot of name recognition, but this is Woods we’re talking about, and he seems to be a good example of how name recognition isn’t always a good thing. It’s not surprising if he lacked support on the right, but far too many people on the left were familiar with his hysterics. If he were ever elected, he would be to the left, what Helena Brown was to the right. A drama filled gadfly totally ineffective at getting anything done for their constituents. Anyone else with his resume would have been a strong candidate, but out of field on 9 candidates for position 5, he came in 8th place, with a scant 61 votes separating him and the last place loser. 33 other people ran across the 5 at-larges, and with a field of candidates that large, everyone knows we were sure to have our share of perennial “also-rans”, gadflies, vanity candidates & the like, many of whom don’t do much, if any, fundraising or real campaigning. To his credit Woods did, but it didn’t lift him out of that unelectable herd. Out of the 33 others running, more than two dozen got more votes than him, he was deep in the bottom third of vote getters. There’s certainly a place for Woods in-your-face bullhorn activist theatrics, it’s just not something that translates into good, effective political capital. I hope moving forward he sticks to what he knows.

  8. Pingback: Chron overview of the At Large #5 runoff – Off the Kuff

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