The day I look forward to since November has finally arrived – all the data from the last election is now available on the Texas Legislative Council webpage. You know what that means: It’s statewide precinct analysis time! Let’s start where we started two years ago at this time, with the State Senate, for whom 2018 data is here. I will boil this down into the bits of greatest interest.
Dist 18 Dem Beto Lupe Collier Nelson Olson McAllen
============================================================
SD02 40.6% 41.3% 36.0% 40.1% 40.5% 39.5% 37.3%
SD05 41.5% 44.6% 38.1% 42.5% 42.8% 41.9% 39.2%
SD07 40.3% 43.9% 38.5% 42.3% 42.9% 42.5% 39.5%
SD08 48.8% 50.6% 43.0% 47.6% 48.6% 47.1% 44.3%
SD09 46.0% 48.9% 42.8% 46.0% 47.0% 46.2% 43.8%
SD10 51.7% 53.3% 47.1% 50.8% 51.6% 50.9% 48.3%
SD11 NA 41.5% 36.2% 39.9% 40.7% 40.6% 37.5%
SD12 NA 43.3% 36.5% 40.5% 41.2% 40.2% 37.3%
SD16 54.1% 55.9% 46.9% 52.6% 53.9% 52.3% 48.1%
SD17 46.8% 51.8% 44.6% 49.7% 50.7% 50.0% 45.1%
SD19 NA 56.8% 50.2% 53.7% 55.4% 55.3% 53.3%
SD25 42.3% 45.2% 38.4% 42.4% 43.6% 42.9% 39.2%
SDs 11, 12, and 19 were not on the ballot in 2018 and are thus the districts of interest for 2020. SD19, which Dems fumbled away in a special election last year, is the obvious, and realistically only target for 2020. The good news is that in a normal turnout context, it’s a sufficiently blue district to favor whoever challenges Sen. Pete Flores. No guarantees, of course, but as you can see it was more Democratic than SDs 10 or 16, the two seats that Dems won last year. A decent candidate and a November-of-an-even-year level of unity among Dems should be enough to win it back.
In SD05, it would appear that Sen. Charles Schwertner was not damaged by the sexual harassment allegations against him. He wasn’t the top performer among Republicans in his district, but he was solidly above average. The allegations, which were ultimately resolved in a non-conclusive fashion, were vague enough to let voters conclude that they didn’t really know what may have happened, and they voted accordingly.
I did not expect SD08 to be as close as it was. Looking at past data, it was a step below SDs 10, 16, and 17. The shift in suburban county politics, plus perhaps a bit of Paxton fatigue, put this one on the cusp for Dems. Might it have made a difference if more money had been dumped into Mark Phariss’ campaign. We’ll never know, but I’m going to be a little haunted by this one. It’s close enough to think that maybe it could have gone differently.
As for SD17, don’t be too mesmerized by the gaudy Dem numbers for the top candidates. SD17 contains the bulk of HD134, and that means a lot of nominal Republicans who crossed over in certain elections. It would seem that Sen. Huffman was not on their naughty list, and that enabled her to get by without too much discomfort.
One other way to look at this is to compare numbers over time. Here’s how this breaks down:
Dist 08Obama 12Obama 16Clinton 18 Beto
=======================================
SD02 38.2% 35.5% 35.4% 41.3%
SD05 38.8% 34.5% 36.4% 44.6%
SD07 33.0% 32.0% 38.3% 43.9%
SD08 39.3% 36.6% 42.6% 50.6%
SD09 41.3% 39.2% 41.8% 48.9%
SD10 47.1% 45.4% 47.3% 53.3%
SD11 36.5% 33.5% 36.6% 41.5%
SD12 36.1% 32.2% 35.4% 43.3%
SD16 43.9% 41.6% 49.9% 55.9%
SD17 41.4% 39.2% 47.2% 51.8%
SD19 55.5% 54.6% 53.4% 56.8%
SD25 37.4% 33.9% 37.9% 45.2%
2018 had Presidential-level turnout, so I’m comparing it to previous Presidential elections. Some big shifts in there, most notably in SDs 08 and 16, but even districts that weren’t competitive in 2018 like SDs 07 and 25 moved by double digits in a Dem direction from 2012. Some of this is demographic change, but it sure seems like some of it is reaction to Trump and his brand of Republicanism. I do not believe that SD16 goes that blue without a lot of people who used to vote Republican switching sides. How long that effect lasts, in particular how long it lasts once Trump is a nightmare we’ve all woken up from and are trying to forget, is a huge question. If the shift is permanent, or at least resilient, Republicans are going to have some very tough choices to make in the 2021 redistricting process. If not – if things return more or less to what we’ve seen this past decade once a Democrat is back in the White House – then they can keep doing what they’ve been doing and dare Dems to do something about it. We won’t know till we experience it, which God willing will be 2022, a year when every Senator will be on the ballot. In the meantime, electing enough Dem Senators to force Dan Patrick to either change the three-fifths rule or get used to wooing Dems for his preferred bills is on the table for next year. I’ll have more numbers in the coming days.
