Tag Archives: Election 2015

Precinct analysis: 2023 Controller’s runoff

Posted on January 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayoral runoff The City Controller runoff also wasn’t particularly close, as Chris Hollins bested many (many, many, many) time candidate Orlando Sanchez by 17 points. There are some interesting things to point out here though, so let’s get to … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2023 Mayoral runoff

Posted on January 3, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

You might want to hide your children’s eyes, these numbers are quite ugly if you were a Sheila Jackson Lee supporter: Dist Whitmire J Lee ======================= A 12,578 3,807 B 2,625 11,199 C 29,030 8,769 D 5,012 14,150 E 20,469 … Continue reading →

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Whitmire officially resigns from the Senate

Posted on December 30, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Let the election-palooza to replace him begin! Mayor-elect John Whitmire has submitted his resignation from the Texas Senate days before he will take over the state’s largest city. Whitmire, the Senate’s longest tenured member, served for 50 years under seven … Continue reading →

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Get ready for the SD15 special election

Posted on December 11, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

It’s closer than you think. The candidates looking to replace Mayor-elect John Whitmire in the Texas Senate may have to win as many as five elections next year before they ever get to vote on a piece of legislation. Whitmire, … Continue reading →

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The recent history of runoff early voting

Posted on December 8, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

I brought this up in yesterday’s post, so let’s take that look at how much of the runoff vote has been cast early in the last few Mayoral elections. Year Early E-Day Total EV % ======================================= 2003 77,984 138,804 216,788 … Continue reading →

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2023 final runoff Early Voting totals

Posted on December 7, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Early voting has ended. Early takes are flowing in. As of Tuesday night, nearly 132,000 votes – 120,155 in-person ballots and 11,732 mail ballots – had been recorded in Harris County, according to the Harris County Clerk’s Office. That compares … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: At Large #2

Posted on December 4, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 Dist Davis Hellyar Coryat Bess Holly Obes ========================================================== A 5,494 3,854 1,580 2,112 1,830 1,184 B 5,834 800 1,286 5,148 658 1,211 C 7,921 13,067 2,477 4,679 4,923 … Continue reading →

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2023 runoff early voting: With two days to go

Posted on December 4, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

I changed up the schedule of posting early voting daily totals because I realized that the EV periods for the three years I’m comparing are all different, which makes the comparisons a little screwy. At this point in all three … Continue reading →

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2023 runoff early voting Day Two totals

Posted on November 29, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s get to it: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 20,233 22,964 43,197 2019 6,024 29,180 35,204 2023 946 28,113 29,059 Again, the early in person totals look normal. The mail, I have no idea. I just now noticed that … Continue reading →

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SurveyUSA Mayoral runoff poll: Whitmire 42, SJL 35

Posted on November 28, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We finally have a second pollster. State Sen. John Whitmire maintains a 7 percentage point lead over U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee in the Houston mayoral race, with a fifth of likely voters having yet to make up their minds … Continue reading →

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2023 runoff early voting Day One totals

Posted on November 28, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Early voting for the 2023 runoff elections is underway. Here’s the news you can use from Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudpseth: As early voting begins for the December 9 Joint Runoff Election, Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth urges voters to … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2023 Mayor’s race

Posted on November 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

The November 2023 election has been officially canvassed and certified, and that means that there’s precinct data available for me to analyze. I’ve been working on it over the weekend, and I will tell you it’s a bit more of … Continue reading →

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My initial thoughts on the 2023 election

Posted on November 9, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Suffice it to say I was off base on turnout. I thought we would be on track to top the turnout of the 2003 Mayor’s race, but in the end we fell short of 2015’s level. I’d have lost quite … Continue reading →

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A few thoughts about Tuesday turnout

Posted on November 6, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We now know how many early votes were cast in Harris County for the November 2023 election. I’m now going to run through a few scenarios to show what the range of possibility is for overall final turnout. None of … Continue reading →

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November 2023 Final EV totals: Records successfully broken

Posted on November 5, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We had a big last day in early voting on Friday, as you can see below: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 29,859 164,104 193,963 2019 15,304 137,460 152,764 2023 14,925 224,400 239,325 The final EV totals from 2015 are … Continue reading →

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November 2023 Day Eleven EV totals: About to break records

Posted on November 3, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

With one day to go in early voting, we are about to set a record. Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 27,952 128,611 156,563 2019 14,280 103,945 118,225 2023 14,034 171,673 185,707 The final EV totals from 2015 are here … Continue reading →

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November 2023 Day Nine EV totals: Just the numbers

Posted on November 1, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday was Halloween, I’m still a little strung out from handing out Trick or Treat loot, so here’s just the updated numbers: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 24,768 89,599 114,367 2019 11,356 76,613 87,989 2023 10,274 123,609 133,883 The … Continue reading →

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November 2023 Day Eight EV totals: You can’t out-nerd me

Posted on October 31, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

This Chron story about early voting through Sunday made me grind my teeth. One week in, early voting turnout has surpassed the levels seen in the last two Houston mayoral elections — but not overwhelmingly so — perhaps a surprise … Continue reading →

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November 2023 Day Seven EV totals: My one crazy theory

Posted on October 30, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We are officially one week into early voting for the November 2023 election. Here’s how it’s been going in Harris County so far: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 21,141 61,008 82,149 2019 6,799 55,937 62,736 2023 9,284 91,676 100,960 … Continue reading →

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Spotlight on the Harris County Clerk

Posted on October 29, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

But first, a few words about early voting so far. Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth reports that voters have cast more than 54.4K in-person ballots during the first four days of Early Voting for the November 7 Joint General & … Continue reading →

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November 2023 Day Three EV totals: All in person

Posted on October 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We’re at the first Friday of early voting for the November 2023 election, and a pattern is beginning to emerge. This is the data through Day Three: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 18,196 27,596 45,792 2019 6,050 26,206 32,256 … Continue reading →

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November 2023 Day One EV totals: You’ve got no mail

Posted on October 25, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

It’s that time you’ve been waiting for, so here’s what you want: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 14,240 8,891 23,131 2019 5,407 7,973 13,380 2023 3,289 12,740 16,029 The final EV totals from 2015 are here and the final … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: Chron goes for Whitmire

Posted on October 24, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron endorses John Whitmire for Mayor. Close your eyes for a moment and ask yourself: in this city of immigrants who start companies and win World Series, of silvery skyscrapers and moonshot cancer fighters, of astronauts who train for … Continue reading →

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What early voting looked like in 2015 and 2019

Posted on October 22, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Tomorrow we start voting – well, technically, tomorrow we start voting in person. People have already been sending in mail ballots, as we’ll see when the Day One EV totals are posted. I will of course report on this as … Continue reading →

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Past interviews with Mayoral candidates

Posted on October 16, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

As I said last week, I have decided to wait until the runoff to do Mayoral candidate interviews. The size of the field and the limited amount of time I had available to try to schedule probably seven interviews with … Continue reading →

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Lee and Garcia push the city to Do Something about Whitmire’s campaign finances

Posted on October 15, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We’ll see what happens. Two rival candidates have asked the city of Houston to block state Sen. John Whitmire from using $2.7 million in proceeds from stock sales to underwrite his campaign for mayor. Already dominating in the fundraising race, … Continue reading →

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And now we have a hue and cry about Whitmire’s campaign treasury

Posted on October 3, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

I’m surprised it took this long, to be honest. U.S. Rep Sheila Jackson Lee and former Metro Chair Gilbert Garcia have requested the city attorney to investigate alleged campaign contribution limit violations by State Sen. John Whitmire, hinting at a … Continue reading →

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A brief word about voter registration in Houston

Posted on September 18, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

First, some important news: Houston residents have one month left to register to vote in November’s City Hall elections. Residents can visit various Harris County government offices, post offices, libraries or state agencies to fill out and submit a completed … Continue reading →

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UH-Hobby Center poll: Whitmire 34, Jackson Lee 32

Posted on July 26, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

I have plenty to say about this. State Sen. John Whitmire and U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee would be neck-and-neck for first place if the Houston mayor’s race were held today, but Whitmire would sprint ahead in a potential runoff, … Continue reading →

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The non-filers

Posted on July 17, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

I of course have some thoughts about this. Nearly a quarter of candidates running for Houston City Hall positions still have not reported how much money they raised and spent for their campaigns last year, missing the January deadline by six months. About … Continue reading →

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So what happens with CD18 now?

Posted on March 29, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

This story is a very basic explainer about Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s just-announced Mayoral campaign. There’s only so much it can tell us as she has not yet talked about what her top campaign priorities are, and most of the … Continue reading →

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Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is in for Mayor

Posted on March 28, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Okay then. The Quorum Report was first on the scene. Sources: In a closed-door event over the weekend, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee told pastors she is running for mayor of Houston The chatter is getting louder out of H-Town, where … Continue reading →

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A very early thought about turnout in the 2023 Houston election

Posted on February 7, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Before I begin, please note that all of this involves a lot of back-of-the-envelope math and more than a few assumptions made along the way. The number of registered voters in Harris County, and thus in Houston, will certainly change … Continue reading →

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Pension reform had the desired effect

Posted on February 3, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

It’s a good thing Houston got this done when it did. We couldn’t get it done earlier, and I don’t think we could get it done now. Now, nearly six years after Mayor Sylvester Turner shepherded a package of reforms through the … Continue reading →

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