I have and will continue to have more to say about straight ticket votes. Part of me is reluctant to talk about this stuff, because I feel like we’ve reached a point where straight ticket votes are seen as less than other votes, and I don’t want to contribute in any way to that. But given all the talk we’ve already had, and the unending stream of baloney about the ridiculously outsized effect they supposedly had in this election, I feel like I need to shed what light I can on what the data actually says. So onward we go.
Today I want to look at a few districts of interest, and separate out the straight ticket votes from the other votes. Again, I hesitated to do this at first because I object so strenuously to the trope that straight ticket votes tipped an election in a particular way, to the detriment of the losing candidate. If a plethora of straight ticket votes helped propel a candidate to victory, it’s because there was a surplus of voters who supported that candidate, and not because of anything nefarious. We call that “winning the election”, and it stems from the condition of having more people vote for you than for the other person. Anyone who claims otherwise is marinating in sour grapes.
So. With that said, here’s a look at how the vote broke down in certain districts.
CD02:
Straight R = 109,529
Straight D = 87,667
Crenshaw 29,659
Litton 32,325
CD07:
Straight R = 90,933
Straight D = 86,640
Culberson 24,709
Fletcher 41,319
If you want to believe in the fiction that straight ticket votes determined the elections, and not the totality of the voters in the given political entity, then please enjoy the result in CD02, where Dan Crenshaw rode the straight ticket vote to victory. Those of us who refuse to engage in such nonsense will merely note that CD02 remained a Republican district despite two cycles of clear movement in a Democratic direction. And then there’s CD07, which stands in opposition to the claim that straight ticket votes are destiny, for if they were then John Culberson would not be shuffling off to the Former Congressman’s Home.
HD126:
Straight R = 24,093
Straight D = 19,491
Harless 6,306
Hurtado 5,544
HD132:
Straight R = 27,287
Straight D = 26,561
Schofield 5,441
Calanni 6,280
HD134:
Straight R = 27,315
Straight D = 30,634
Davis 19,962
Sawyer 11,003
HD135:
Straight R = 22,035
Straight D = 22,541
Elkins 4,666
Rosenthal 5,932
HD138:
Straight R = 18,837
Straight D = 18,746
Bohac 5,385
Milasincic 5,429
HD126 and HD135 were consistent, with straight ticket and non-straight ticket votes pointing in the same direction. Gina Calanni was able to overcome Mike Schofield’s straight ticket lead, while Adam Milasincic was not quite able to do the same. As for HD134, this is one part a testament to Sarah Davis’ crossover appeal, and one part a warning to her that this district may not be what it once was. Republicans are going to have some tough decisions to make in the 2021 redistricting if they want to hold onto this district.
CC2:
Straight R = 86,756
Straight D = 92,927
Morman 25,981
Garcia 21,887
CC3:
Straight R = 132,207
Straight D = 122,325
Flynn 32,964
Duhon 40,989
CC4:
Straight R = 144,217
Straight D = 122,999
Cagle 42,545
Shaw 34,448
Finally, a Democrat gets a boost from straight ticket voting. I had figured Adrian Garcia would run ahead of the pack in Commissioners Court Precinct 2, but that wasn’t the case. I attribute Jack Morman’s resiliency to his two terms as incumbent and his millions in campaign cash, but in the end they weren’t enough. As was the case with CD02 for Dan Crenshaw, CC2 was too Democratic for Morman. That’s a shift from 2016, where Republicans generally led the way in the precinct, and shows another aspect of the Republican decline in the county. You see that also in CC3, where many Dems did win a majority and Andrea Duhon came close, and in CC4, which is at this point the last stronghold for Republicans. Democrats are pulling their weight out west, and that had repercussions this year that will continue to be felt in 2020 and beyond.
There’s still more to the straight ticket voting data that I want to explore. I keep thinking I’m done, then I keep realizing I’m not. Hope this has been useful to you.