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And then there were three in HD121

One of the two Republicans in the special election for HD 121 has dropped out and will endorse the other, though his name will remain on the ballot.

“I believe that the Democrats are waging a very strong campaign, and I do not want even one vote displaced for a Republican in that district,” said [Glen] Starnes, a financial adviser.

The election is Feb. 5; early voting runs through Tuesday.

Starnes, 39, was one of two Republicans seeking the seat. The other, Joe Straus III, already has garnered key endorsements from elected area leaders, including U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, state Sen. Jeff Wentworth and County Commissioner Lyle Larson.

Starnes said he plans to add his name to the list of endorsements and actively campaign for Straus, 45.

Because the ballots already have been printed, Starnes’ name will remain on the ballot, and his vote totals will be reported election night, said officials with the Bexar County Elections Department.

Also on the ballot are Democrat Rose Spector, 71, and independent Paul Silber, 80.

In 2002, total turnout in this district was 49.2%, with about 41,000 ballots cast. Former Rep. Jones, running unopposed, got about 30,000 votes. In 2004, she got 47,000 votes out of 66,000 cast. At a wild guess, I’d peg purnout for this special election in the 5-10% range, or between 4000 and 8000 total votes. Under those conditions, as we’ve said before, anything can happen. Making sure people know to vote, and getting them out to vote, will be everything. Click here if you want to help Rose Spector do that.

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2 Comments

  1. houtopia says:

    My guess is, you’re looking at 15,000 to 20,000 votes in this one.

  2. Oh, Sarah! says:

    SAN ANTONIO ROSE: HOW JUDGE ROSE SPECTOR WINS ON FEB FIVE

    Turnout in the February 5 special election to replace Republican Elizabeth Ames Jones as HD 121 state representative will be between 8 percent and 12 percent — a total of about 8,200 voters.

    As the only woman and only Democrat against as many as four Republican men, Judge Spector is likely to survive the first round and make a February 19 or 26 run-off — if she doesn’t win it all outright on February 5.

    It won’t be easy. But it is truly within reach.

    DISTRICT PROFILE
    As many as 56 percent of the special election voters will be women and 43 percent men. In this older district, the mean age of voters is likely to be above 60, and no more than 2-3 percent will be under the age of 30. Anglos will comprise better than 80 percent of the vote, while Hispanics and Blacks will account for less than 19 percent. The Jewish vote may surpass 4.1 percent of the total.

    HD 121 is frequently written off as heavily Republican. In fact, it is heavily ambivalent. Among likely voters, 34 percent of Republican primary voters have voted in a Democratic primary since 1992; 28 percent of Democratic primary voters have voted in a Republican primary since then.

    Perhaps most significantly, likely voters in the district are evenly divided in their marital status, with almost exactly 50 percent in each camp. Single voters overwhelmingly sided with Democrats in the 2004 general election — as much as 70 percent to 30 percent– while married voters favored Republican candidates by a smaller margin — 60 percent to 40 percent.