Off we go to Primary Day.
Year Mail Early Total
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2012 7,735 30,142 37,877
2016 13,034 72,782 85,816
2020 22,785 116,748 139,533
2024 14,661 87,591 102,252
2012 17,734 60,347 78,081
2016 20,780 110,365 131,145
2020 22,801 82,108 104,909
2024 6,285 102,686 108,971
As a reminder, Dem totals are on top, Republican ones on the bottom. Here are the Day Eleven totals for this year, and here are the final totals from 2012, 2016, and 2020.
It was a pretty good final day, though not quite as gangbusters as 2012 or 2016. Both of those saw more than half of all early votes come in on the last three days. In 2020, about 46% of all EV turnout came in on the last three days, and this year it was about 43%. Does that mean anything? Hell if I know. I’m just telling you what the numbers are. Republicans came in slightly ahead of 2020, when they didn’t have an active Presidential primary, but behind 2016 when they did. Dems fell short of their active 2020 but ahead of 2016, which was also an active primary but a weirder one than 2020 was. The main takeaway I have from all this is another reminder that every election is its own unique thing.
How can we put this primary into context? Here’s what final turnout has been for every Dem primary since 2002, including turnout as a percentage of registered voters:
Year Turnout Pct
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2002 95,396 5.15%
2004 78,692 4.35%
2006 35,447 1.89%
2008 410,908 22.71%
2010 101,263 5.38%
2012 75,150 3.95%
2014 53,788 2.70%
2016 227,280 10.92%
2018 167,982 7.47%
2020 328,426 13.86%
2022 167,179 6.64%
I don’t think there should be any difficulty passing 2018 and 2022 in total turnout, so this year will be at least the fourth best primary in that regard, with a reasonable chance to be the third best given how past Presidential year patterns have gone. In terms of turnout as a percentage of registered voters, I think it will slot in as fourth best, with a more remote chance of passing 2016 as third best. I don’t know what the current total of registered voters is for Harris County, but we were just shy of 2.6 million as of last November, so probably right around 2.6 million. Again, looking at the three most recent Presidential year primaries and their early vote share, I don’t think topping 2016 is likely, but topping ten percent is in play:
At 51.78% (2012) EV, final turnout = 197,474
At 44.19% (2020) EV, final turnout = 231,391
At 38.54% (2016) EV, final turnout = 265,314
I feel like we’re more likely to be close to fifty percent of the vote being in already – again, I feel chastened by my 2023 experience – and so while I think we’ll reach 200K votes, I’m not expecting more than that. Please, by all means, prove me wrong.
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