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Two for CD32

Via Kirk at BOR, two Democrats are preparing to challenge Rep. Pete Sessions in CD32: Dallas lawyer Will Pryor and 2002 candidate Pauline Dixon. This is of course a good thing, as the goal is to run everywhere. CD32 is one of the less red districts among those designed to elect a Republican – it was drawn with a 60.3% GOP index; only CD21 is that purple, with CD02 slightly more crimson.

The bad news, of course, is that although he beat the spread by five points, then-incumbent Martin Frost couldn’t win there last year. A challenge by a relative unknown, who’s sure to have much less money, is highly unlikely to do any better than that. On the other hand, my analysis of CD32 suggests that it underperformed slightly from a GOP perspective – the overall partisan split was 59.1%/40.9%, or 59.8%/40.2% if you remove the Frost-Sessions race. Frost outdid every other Democrat in this district, with the exception of Katy Hubener in HD106, who beat him by a half point in the precincts they shared. The second best performance in CD32 was by Lupe Valdez, who scored 42.2% there.

Dallas County is clearly trending Democrat, and because of that CD32 is going to get more competitive each cycle. Getting candidates in all available races, which the Dallas County Democratic Party seems to be on its way to doing, will help. The one race that’s still unchallenged is the one where the Democrat did worse than John Kerry, in HD108 against Dan Branch. There’s room to grow here, and while this race may not attract as much attention as some others this year, it’s going to be top-tier again. If Pryor or Dixon can match or exceed Frost’s percentage, look out in 2008.

District totals can be found in this spreadsheet. Guess maybe it’s time for me to finally revisit the Frost Effect question. If I have time this weekend, I will.

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  1. Matt G says:

    This is also going to have an impact on some Tarrant Country races too.

    With the DFW media market being so general, this could affect turn out in HD 93 and may help create long term infrastructure in Collin and Denton counties.

    These are among the many reason a race run anywhere is a good thing everywhere.

  2. chip says:

    Dallas constituents should be reminded that Pete Sessions is the guy who introduced the bill to outlaw municipal wireless at the Federal level. I think a lot of his constituents would be unhappy with that, particularly when they learn he has a vested interest in working for the phone company.

  3. Eric Folkerth says:

    Charles: I spoke with you a couple of months ago, about your analysis of the Frost Effect. (I’m Judge Garcia’s husband and campaign manager from 2004)

    I’ll only “second” the request that it’s pretty good timing to look at it again.

    Hope you’re well!

    Eric Folkerth

  4. Mathwiz says:

    If the GOP’s ethics problems keep up (and they show no sign of abating), I think most Democrats are going to “beat the spread” next year.

    Ten points is still a lot to make up, but this is by no means out of reach.