Today’s inclement weather may not have closed the polls down, but they did reduce the number of voters by a considerable amount. Only 3287 hardy souls made it out to an EV location, some of which saw fewer than 20 people all day. After five days of early voting, a total of 35,317 in-person and mail ballots have been cast. The 8,911 mail ballots are almost as many as there were in the first round all together, which suggests to me that one or both campaigns ramped up their efforts in that regard. We’ll see what happens with turnout tomorrow, given that weather conditions will be similar to today’s. Too much more like this and it could have a dampening effect on the final total.
UPDATE: Prof. Murray reiterates his belief that the runoff may have higher turnout than Round One did. I believe that what we are seeing is mostly more voters voting early, not necessarily an indicator of higher turnout. In Round One, 35% of all ballots were cast before Election Day. I believe that total will be more like 50% in the runoff. If I’m right, then Murray is wrong, and vice versa. We shall see.
One reason I think you may be wrong — the percentage of folks who did not turn out in November is now up to 13% and has been rising.
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