# Early vote totals after one full week

Here’s your early vote tabulation through Sunday, Day Seven, with five days to go. Here also are the 2009 spreadsheet, the 2007 daily EV report, and the Erik Vidor spreadsheet. Here’s the cumulative summary for the first full week:

```
Type        2005   2007   2009   2011
=====================================
In Person 24,141 15,792 26,662 19,751
Absentee   2,158  3,555  3,801  4,340

Total     26,299 19,347 30,463 24,091

09 Pct     86.3%  63.5%  100%   79.0%
```

The first thing you may notice is that the share of the 2009 vote total for this year is up considerably from what I reported for the five day totals. There’s a simple reason for this: I screwed up the arithmetic on Saturday, giving the five day total for this year as 15,689 instead of 18,689. The 2009 vote share should have been 81.4%, so it’s actually down a pinch. Among other things, that means all of the projections I gave on Saturday are off. Here are those numbers again, using the seven day totals. First, the share of the final early vote tally after seven days:

```
Year   7 Day Ev   Total EV   5 Day Pct
======================================
2005     26,299     78,585       33.5%
2007     19,347     50,264       38.5%
2009     30,463     80,516       37.8%

2011     24,091     63,065       38.2%
```

The projection for this year’s early vote total is up by 8,000 votes as a result of my screwup. I’m assuming that the rate of early voting will be between that of 2007 and 2009, which is to say I’m assuming that this week, when things traditionally pick up, the early vote totals will not skew too far one way or the other. Obviously, that would affect the final EV total if they do. Now let’s re-run the projections of the ultimate totals based on these updated numbers:

```
Year      Early      Total      EV Pct
======================================
2005     81,007    332,154       24.4%
2007     52,476    193,945       27.1%
2009     82,978    257,312       32.1%

2011     65,000    266,393       24.4%
2011     65,000    239,852       27.1%
2011     65,000    202,492       32.1%
2011     65,000    185,185       35.1%
```

I’ve added a fourth scenario here, for the possibility that we’re seeing a higher rate of early voting this year than in previous years. Again, the higher EV total given here reflects the addition of absentee ballots that arrive after Friday. If we now make the same assumption as before that the city vote share will be between 60 and 70 percent of the Harris County vote share, we get a range of 111,111 to 186,475 votes in the city election from Harris County, which we then bump up to 113,000 to 189,000 after adding in Fort Bend and Montgomery. That makes the high end estimate equivalent to the 2005 city vote total, which was elevated that year by the Double Secret Illegal anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment. I don’t see that happening. The low end is about where it was before, and if we throw out the bottom scenario and assume the rate of early voting will be the same as it was in 2009, that yields a Harris County estimate of 121,495, or about 124,000 overall. Which is to say, much like 2007. I still believe that’s the target total, and I still believe we’re going to come in a little higher than that, say 130,000 to 135,000. All of this may change depending on how heavy or light the early voting is this week. My thanks to Ursula in the comments for pointing out my addition error.

### 2 Comments

1. Brad says:

Charles,

I am going to let it slide this one time, but if you ever, and I mean ever, screw up in the most elementary branch of mathematics again I am never going to check out this blog again.

2. […] that my projection of the 2011 EV total was high by about 5,000 votes, which is a direct consequence of following the 2007 pattern instead […]