After Mitt Romney’s unimpressive showing on Tuesday, the race for the GOP Presidential nomination continues to slog on with no clear end in sight. Which is good news, I guess, if you’re a Texas Republican because it means that your vote on May 29 will matter. And polls right now are showing a tight race here:
TEXAS (Rasmussen): Romney 32, Santorum 30, Gingrich 19, Paul 9
TEXAS (Wilson Perkins Allen): Santorum 35, Romney 27, Gingrich 20, Paul 8
Links via Kos. We’re all aware that the Romney machine has been spending tons of money along the way in a so-far futile effort to crush the opposition. He will no doubt spend millions more in Texas, and it looks like Rick Santorum will have some help from a number of sugar daddies as well. In other words, if you still listen to commercial radio, or watch live TV, be prepared for a relentless assault on your sensibilities as the airwaves get taken over by campaign ads. It may not be as all-encompassing as the Obama-Clinton fight of 2008 was, but it will certainly leave you feeling a lot dirtier afterward. Prepare yourself now, before it’s too late.
From within the Republican Party, I don’t share the view that Romney’s near tie in states like Alabama and Mississippi are unimpressive. He is, after all, a Mormon identified with Massachusetts. But if the contest is still undecided by May 29, my guess is that Romney’s funders are going to get fatigued, and Santorum would have the energy and volunteering of lots of social conservatives. And the average Texas primary voter is pretty far to the right, would support “equal time” for creationism in the classroom alongside evolution, would back abstinence only health education with no discussion of contraception. Electability is not a big concern for many of these voters; among their narrow circle of friends, no one plans to vote for Obama, so they are convinced any GOP nominee is a shoo-in. My sense is that in November, Santorum would lose to Obama, while Romney has a decent shot, but it is still early.
In Texas the sheep go into the voting booth and push R or D on the straight party vote. Doesn’t matter who the candidate will be in November. I suspect Santorum would do better in Texas in the Nov general election than Romney, because he is “one of us”. (read: not a Mormon)