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Fifty-nine percent turnout predicted

To say the least, that’s pretty darned high turnout.

Fifty-nine percent of the registered voters in Texas are expected to cast ballots in the Nov. 2 election, Secretary of State Geoff Connor said today.

Connor’s voter turnout estimate comes from studying early voting trends and looking at the state’s voting age population, he said. Early voting ends Friday.

Although large numbers of voters are showing up in some counties to vote early, it may be that more Texans are taking advantage of early voting, Connor said, adding that it may not translate into an overall boost in turnout for the election.

“I do hope that we have greater participation,” Connor said. He said turnout could be helped by interest in the presidential race and hotly contested local and congressional races and a surge in patriotism since the 2001 terror attacks.

Over the last several elections, there hasn’t been much change in the percentage of adults who turn out to vote, he said.

About 13.1 million Texans are registered to vote this year, a record number. But as a percentage of the voting-age population, it represents a decline in registration to 82 percent, down from 85 percent in 2000.

In the 2000 presidential race, when then-Gov. George W. Bush of Texas first ran for president, voter turnout for the state was 52 percent. At that time, there were 12.4 million registered voters in Texas.

Not sure if the slight decline in registered voters as a percentage of VAP is attributable to a greater proportion of non-citizens, or just an insufficient outreach effort. It’s still the second-best percentage ever, though, or close to it – it was 81.90% in 1998.

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2 Comments

  1. Make A Difference says:

    MAKE A DIFFERENCE!!

    From electoral-vote.com:

    From The Los Angeles Times “Nationwide, at least two polls in the last week showed that newly registered voters favored Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry by double-digit margins. The Massachusetts senator holds an even greater lead, the polls found, among voters 29 and younger… The conclusion is that the new voters and younger voters favor Kerry by a large margin, but historically they don’t actually bother to vote. If they do this time, it could make a big difference.

    Come on people––your vote is essential!

    THERE’S STILL TIME TO REQUEST AN ABSENTEE BALLOT IN MOST STATES IF YOU ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE!
    It’s easy; it’s online.

    Absentee Ballot information online:

    http://www.rockthevote.com/rtv_primaries.php

    GET TO THE POLLS AND VOTE ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 2ND!!

    Please e-mail this information to all of your friends!
    AND VOTE FOR KERRY!!!!

    Your future depends on it!

    VOTE FOR KERRY!!!!

  2. Jim D says:

    I predicted 60 +/- 3 percent. We’ll see on Election Day.

    Anyhow, I feel validated.