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Bernie Sanders

Texas Pulse Poll

Hey look! Someone polled Texas.

A statewide poll of Texas likely voters finds that immigration and the economy are the top issues of concern for residents of the Lone Star State. The poll also found that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton lead the Republican and Democratic primaries. Barack Obama is viewed unfavorably by a majority of Texans. Gov. Greg Abbott is seen favorably, and Sen. Ted Cruz has a more mixed favorability rating.

The Texas Pulse, a periodic survey of Texans’ opinions on a variety of cultural, economic and political issues, was conducted by Crosswind Media & Public Relations from Sep. 11-14, using a survey of 1,000 Texans. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. A 2014 Texas Pulse survey was recognized by the Houston Chronicle as the most accurate poll in the governor’s race.

In a survey of 452 likely Democratic voters, Clinton leads Democrat Bernie Sanders 53 percent to 21 percent, with Sen. Joe Biden, who has not announced for president, in third with 14 percent in a hypothetical matchup.

“Despite some challenges, the Clinton name is still gold among Texas Democrats,” said Thomas Graham, Crosswind president and CEO. “Hillary’s support remains solid, particularly among minorities and women. While Sanders fares well among white and younger voters relative to his overall numbers, Hillary Clinton still beats him 2-1 in even these categories.”

Clinton even beats Sanders 52 percent to 31 percent among voters identifying themselves as liberal. The former secretary of state does best among African-Americans, with almost two thirds (65%) supporting her. Sanders’ only lead in any category is among voters identifying their ethnicity as “other.” This is a relatively small sample, however.

On the Republican side, as Crosswind announced last week, Donald Trump leads the field with 26 percent, followed by Ben Carson at 19 percent. Texas’ own Senator Ted Cruz is third with 15 percent, and Jeb Bush is fourth with 9 percent.

You can go here to add yourself to their mailing list enter your information to see the full poll information. Honestly, it doesn’t have that much – you will be shocked to know that Republicans like Greg Abbott and Ted Cruz but hate President Obama and Obamacare, while Democrats love the President and Obamacare but can’t stand Abbott or Cruz. There’s a bit more nuance than that, so go get yourself the full poll if you want to know the full details plus some other things. On the GOP primary side, that link above in this paragraph has a pie chart of the full field. Pre-dropout Rick Perry got 3% and Scott Walker got 2%, while pre-CNN debate Carly Fiorina was at 3%. Such are the perils of waiting to release poll data. I would have loved to have seen some potential November matchups, but no dice. There’s also some issues polling – Republicans continue to be obsessed with immigration and “border security” (a full 50% had it as their top issue), while Dems are interested in a broader range of things. The press release linked at the top has some of those numbers, though oddly they disagree with what’s on the full poll page – the release says “Among Republicans, the economy is second (18%) and taxes and spending third (15%)”, but the chart on the poll page shows “economy and jobs” at 15% and “taxes and spending” at 11%. Go figure.

Anyway, much of this is for entertainment value only at this stage. You can be sure it will be different in February, even if neither field is much smaller. The Texas Lyceum will be releasing the results of its 2015 Issues and Elections poll next Wednesday the 30th, so we’ll see how these two compare.

What about Bernie?

Hillary Clinton has some company in the Democratic primary for President.

Sen. Bernie Sanders

There’s one question Democrats face as they head into the 2016 presidential election. How should they feel about Hillary Clinton? The coalition Barack Obama built happily came out to vote in his two presidential elections, but turnout was pathetic in 2010 and 2014 when he wasn’t on the ticket. Clinton’s ability to inherit that coalition is debatable.

Some of the party’s faithful just want to maximize their chances of taking a third consecutive term, and they think the Clintons’ careful and calculated brand of center-left politics is the thing to do it. Others are antsy. They’ve seen the GOP’s far right drag their party to them with great success, and they want someone to subject Clinton to the same type of pressures. But they need a candidate. Elizabeth Warren has declined to run, and Martin O’Malley is a ball of ambition.

Enter U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont), Congress’ sole self-avowed socialist, who came through Texas at the beginning of April in the middle of a cross-country trip whose purpose, he said, was to judge the energies of the left and to raise money in anticipation of a possible primary run against Clinton. Sanders would be as unusual a candidate as we’ve seen in America for quite some time. He’s not quite a Dennis Kucinich or a Mike Gravel, but it’s not that he’s setting out to win either. His self-proclaimed models are people such as Jesse Jackson and Howard Dean, who ran and lost, but inspired future political activists.

Obama’s 2008 campaign, Sanders told the Observer at an Austin Tex-Mex restaurant, “will go down in history as one of the great campaigns ever run.” But, he continued, “the day after the election, he said, ‘Thank you for electing me, but I think I can go on from here without you. I do not need the millions of people who were actively involved in my campaign.’” The kind of change the left wants, he said, is not possible without “mass organized activity” of the kind that has not existed in the country in some five decades—the kind Sanders experienced as a young man in the civil rights, anti-war and kibbutz movements.

As he talks, he has the feel of a radical giving it one last college try. But his reception in Austin was decidedly warm. In addition to small venues—he spoke to a union hall—he gave the keynote at one of the Travis County Democratic Party’s main annual fundraisers. Outside, his communications director, a silver-haired former Chicago newspaperman who dimly recalls his last trip to Texas some decades ago, marvels at the previous day’s turnout: He calls it a “field of dreams” moment.

I’m happy to have him in the race. I fully expect to vote for Hillary Clinton, who in case you hadn’t noticed has been doing a pretty good job raising and discussing progressive issues lately, but competitive primaries are good, and a little extra pressure on Clinton’s left flank is fine by me. I also agree with Sen. Sanders about what happened post-2008; Clinton is talking a good game so far, but this will incentivize her to keep it up. Current polling suggests that this will not be a competitive contest, but it’s early days. Overall, I basically agree with what Ed Kilgore says. I look forward to hearing what both candidates, and any others that may join them, have to say.

UPDATE: A useful guide to what Sen. Sanders believes in.