Tag Archives: Election 2008

Precinct analysis: State courts

Posted on November 21, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

We return to our tour of the precinct data with a look at the statewide judicial races. These tend to be interesting mostly as proxies for base partisan support, but there are variations that reflect qualities about the candidates. That’s … Continue reading →

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Emmett says he will run for re-election in 2018

Posted on November 19, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Well, this was unexpected. Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said Thursday that he plans to seek re-election when his current term is up in 2018, ending speculation that he might step aside after more than a decade at the helm … Continue reading →

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A theory about third parties

Posted on November 15, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Before I get to that theory, have you ever wondered about the people who vote straight ticket Libertarian or Green in Harris County? I got to wondering about them, because that’s the sort of thing that I think about at … Continue reading →

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Statewide review: 2016 was like 2008, but not in a good way

Posted on November 13, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

There’s no point in beating around the bush, so I’ll just come out and say it: Despite the excitement about increases in voter registration and heavy early voting turnout. statewide Democratic candidates outside of Hillary Clinton generally did not do … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts: Harris County

Posted on November 10, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I’m still not quite ready to resume regular blogging. I’ve got a few things drafted from before the election, several of which are non-political, that I’ll begin to put in the queue, and a couple of ones that were political … Continue reading →

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The new voters

Posted on November 8, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

One more data point before we get the actual data. A late surge of new voters helped Harris County achieve record early turnout and suggests that local registration drives paid off – although to which party’s benefit remains anyone’s guess … Continue reading →

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Races I’ll be watching on Tuesday, Legislative edition

Posted on November 7, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the legislative races I’ll be looking at to see what kind of a day it has been for Texas Democrats. After the 2012 general election, the Dems had 55 seats in the Lege. Thee Democrats lost in 2014, … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Twelve: Nearly a million

Posted on November 6, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s your final daily EV report and your updated tracker spreadsheet. The final tally from Friday was 105,005 in person votes and 2,882 more mail ballots returned. That brings us to 882,580 people showing up at an early vote location, … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Eleven: Last chance

Posted on November 4, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart announced within minutes after the polls opened this morning, that Harris County crossed the 700,982 voter benchmark setting a new record for early voters by personal appearance. With essentially two full days … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of HD135

Posted on November 2, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

One more look at a local legislative race. Novice political candidate Jesse A. Ybañez believes his focus on the people of the increasingly diverse Texas House District 135 makes him a better choice than longtime state Rep. Gary Elkins. Ybañez, … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Nine: A brief comparison

Posted on November 2, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a comparison of where the voters who cast their ballots through the first eight days of early voting came from in 2012 and in 2016: Dist 12 Day 8 12 Total Day 8% 16 Day 8 % of 2012 … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Six: A good first week for Democrats

Posted on October 30, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

There’s still a week to go, but so far, so good. Harris County residents cast more ballots in the first four days of early voting than five states did in the entire 2012 presidential election. Locally, the number of ballots … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Five: Maybe the lines will be shorter next week

Posted on October 29, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Resources will be mobilized to ameliorate things. Harris County will add staff and equipment to early voting locations next week to help cut down long wait times fueled by a record surge of voter turnout, County Clerk Stan Stanart said. … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Four: Just the facts

Posted on October 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Here is your Day 4 EV report, and here as always is the spreadsheet that tracks early voting in Presidential elections going back to 2004. Long story short, another record-breaking day, with about the same volume (just over 76,000 in … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Three: The case for pessimism

Posted on October 27, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Dave Mann tells Texas Democrats to put those rose-tinted glasses away. On Monday, the Real Clear Politics site declared that Texas is up for grabs in the presidential election. The shift comes after a series of polls showing a tight … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Two: How long can we keep this up?

Posted on October 26, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Texas Monthly crunches some numbers from Day One: Digging further into the numbers, it seems as though the long-whispered awakening of Texas Democrats happened, at the very least, on day one. GOP consultant Derek Ryan, who published a detailed report … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day One: Hope you didn’t mind waiting on line

Posted on October 25, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Lots of people were out there with you. After more than 18 months of intensive election coverage, early voting kicked off in Harris County on Monday with long lines at some polling locations. As polls closed at 6 p.m., more … Continue reading →

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The state of the polls

Posted on October 20, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of HD134

Posted on October 18, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron looks at that perpetual swing district, HD134 Artful redistricting has squeezed the general election suspense from nearly all of Harris County’s legislative races, rendering most districts solidly red or blue. Democrat Ben Rose is hoping to prove his … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of judicial races

Posted on October 9, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

In case anyone is paying attention to them. As Harris County goes, so go most of its judicial races. That truism appears to be good news for Democrats seeking to scoop up more district court benches in November, when two … Continue reading →

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Registration versus turnout

Posted on October 6, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Ross Ramsey throws a bit of cold water on the surge in voter registrations. Turnout isn’t nearly as volatile as registration. Over the past 10 presidential elections in Texas, the percentage of Texas adults registered to vote has gone as … Continue reading →

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Lots of absentee ballots in Harris County this year

Posted on October 5, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart announced today that over 90,000 ballots have been mailed to voters who requested to vote by mail in the November 8, 2016 General and Special Elections. The number of ballots mailed is … Continue reading →

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Our first guess at Harris County turnout

Posted on October 2, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

It’s big. Early voting in Texas for the 2016 election begins in a month. It will run through November 4. The Harris County Clerk’s office is encouraging voters to take advantage of the window, in order to avoid long lines … Continue reading →

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McMullin will “appear” on the ballot

Posted on September 26, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

To the extent that a write-in candidate “appears” on the ballot, anyway. Texas voters will be able to vote for former CIA operative Evan McMullin for president in November. The Texas secretary of state’s office on Friday certified McMullin, who … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: A Libertarian moment

Posted on September 11, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron thinks outside the box in endorsing for the Railroad Commission. Our editorial board interviews scores of candidates for political office every election year, but seldom do we find ourselves wholeheartedly endorsing a nominee from the Libertarian Party. Then … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: Stay the course

Posted on August 31, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Harris County Democrats have one incumbent up for re-election: County Attorney Vince Ryan. The Chron gives their approval for another term. [Ryan] said that he actively pursues pollution enforcement lawsuits against big companies – such as Volkswagen after it lied … Continue reading →

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It’s not crazy to think that a downballot Democrat could win statewide this year

Posted on August 22, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I’ll get to that headline in a minute. I’ve got some reading to sort through first. We’ll start with the most pessimistic, or perhaps the least blue-sky, story of how things are likely to go. Arizona. Georgia. Utah. Indiana. Is … Continue reading →

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Will Texas Republicans dislike Clinton as much as they dislike Obama?

Posted on August 2, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Of course they will. I mean, come on. Texas Democrats will miss Obama. But so too will Texas Republicans. Those three syllables — O-Bah-Mah — were all it took for Republicans to signal what they stood against. “There was an … Continue reading →

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What it will take to win the District Court of Appeals benches

Posted on July 18, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve mentioned a couple of times that one place on the local ballot where Democrats could potentially gain some real ground is with the district Courts of Appeals. There are no competitive Congressional or State Senate races, the one competitive … Continue reading →

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Mixed signals on voter registration

Posted on July 8, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

It’s mostly good news, but it could be better. While nonpartisan groups say funding is lagging to sign up Latinos to vote in the November election, voter registrations — likely fueled by Donald Trump’s salvos against people of Mexican heritage … Continue reading →

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Our first general election poll of Texas

Posted on June 23, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: In a poll released today and conducted June 13-14, 2016, Texas voters are specifically rejecting Donald Trump’s lies and the corruption of State GOP elected officials. While Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 7 points (36.8 % – … Continue reading →

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What should the goals for 2016 be for Texas Dems?

Posted on June 16, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Given that carrying the state is highly unlikely, what else is there to aim for this year? So will Democrats make a presidential play for Texas or not? Presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton stoked the issue last month by saying she … Continue reading →

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Overview of the Harris County GOP Chair runoff

Posted on May 17, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

This is the Republican runoff I’m most interested in. Two years after wresting control of the Harris County Republican Party, Paul Simpson is facing an unexpected runoff challenge from political newcomer Rick Ramos in a race that again pits establishment … Continue reading →

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Still debating the Trump effect in Texas

Posted on April 26, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

This time with input from trained professionals. Republicans say it’s just wishful thinking, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s controversial comments will make some GOP voters stay home in protest and boost the number of Democrats going to the polls … Continue reading →

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